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What will you open?

#1 User is offline   Little Kid 

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Posted 2010-July-05, 08:02

Scoring: MP

- 1D is 4+♦.
- Your preempts can be very light at favourable.
- 3NT is agreed as a solid 7-card minor with at most a Queen outside.
♣ Veni, vidi, proficisci ♣
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#2 User is online   P_Marlowe 

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Posted 2010-July-05, 08:09

Hi,

I will open with a preempt.

I guess my diamond suit does not qualify for a 3NT opening bid,
the suit is not solid, so 3NT is out.
I would go with 5D, but 4D is ok as well.

With kind regards
Marlowe
With kind regards
Uwe Gebhardt (P_Marlowe)
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#3 User is offline   Free 

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Posted 2010-July-05, 08:11

8 card from AKJ is as solid as a 7 card suit from AKQ. I'd probably open 3NT, 1♦ being my alternative.
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#4 User is offline   gwnn 

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Posted 2010-July-05, 08:20

Free, on Jul 5 2010, 02:11 PM, said:

8 card from AKJ is as solid as a 7 card suit from AKQ.

No it's not.

5♦ for me.
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#5 User is offline   Free 

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Posted 2010-July-05, 08:22

gwnn, on Jul 5 2010, 03:20 PM, said:

Free, on Jul 5 2010, 02:11 PM, said:

8 card from AKJ is as solid as a 7 card suit from AKQ.

No it's not.

5♦ for me.

There was a thread a while ago about this. It's not exactly the same, but still solid enough to open 3NT as far as I remember.
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#6 User is offline   hanp 

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Posted 2010-July-05, 08:32

AKJ10-8th is quite different from AKQ-7th, it's better for diamonds and worse for NT. Given that we also have a void, I would never open 3NT.
and the result can be plotted on a graph.
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#7 User is offline   Codo 

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Posted 2010-July-05, 08:38

1 or 5 ♦, way too strong for a non vul. preempt vs. vul opps.

Okay 5 ♦ today.
Kind Regards

Roland

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#8 User is offline   gwnn 

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Posted 2010-July-05, 08:49

Free, on Jul 5 2010, 02:22 PM, said:

gwnn, on Jul 5 2010, 03:20 PM, said:

Free, on Jul 5 2010, 02:11 PM, said:

8 card from AKJ is as solid as a 7 card suit from AKQ.

No it's not.

5♦ for me.

There was a thread a while ago about this. It's not exactly the same, but still solid enough to open 3NT as far as I remember.

84% vs 75% or so, 9 percentage points difference. What is solid enough to open 3NT is subjective.
... and I can prove it with my usual, flawless logic.
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#9 User is offline   gwnn 

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Posted 2010-July-05, 08:56

http://forums.bridge...showtopic=37841

in particular

http://forums.bridgebase.com/index.php?sho...ndpost&p=442582
... and I can prove it with my usual, flawless logic.
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#10 User is offline   sectorzz9 

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Posted 2010-July-05, 09:00

5D. The suit isn't solid and we have an outside void, which is unattractive for NT.

However I wouldn't be surprised to be told that 1D works out a lot better on this hand.
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#11 User is offline   pooltuna 

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Posted 2010-July-05, 09:18

Deleted due to thread references gwnn provided.
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#12 User is offline   Bbradley62 

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Posted 2010-July-05, 09:22

gwnn, on Jul 5 2010, 10:49 AM, said:

84% vs 75% or so, 9 percentage points difference. What is solid enough to open 3NT is subjective.

Agreed. Of course, the 8-card suit has the advantage that, the 75% of the time that it comes in, it only needs 1 outisde trick for 3N, whereas the 84% 7-card suit needs 2 outside tricks.

3NT looks right to me. It's called "gambling" for a reason. Or is it not called that anymore?
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#13 User is offline   jdonn 

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Posted 2010-July-05, 09:24

Gambling 3NT is lol. The void is even worse for it than the suit is. How can partner ever know what to do?
Please let me know about any questions or interest or bug reports about GIB.
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#14 User is offline   hanp 

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Posted 2010-July-05, 09:24

AKQJ10xx is 100% because partner needs one too.

Quote

3NT looks right to me. It's called "gambling" for a reason. Or is it not called that anymore?


You can call it whatever you like but I think it's just bad bridge.
and the result can be plotted on a graph.
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#15 User is offline   gwnn 

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Posted 2010-July-05, 09:28

pooltuna, on Jul 5 2010, 03:18 PM, said:

gwnn, on Jul 5 2010, 09:20 AM, said:

Free, on Jul 5 2010, 02:11 PM, said:

8 card from AKJ is as solid as a 7 card suit from AKQ.

No it's not.

5♦ for me.

I think you need to do the numbers, as the only truely solid,100% guaranteed 7 trick winner is AKQJT9x. Clearly we would wait a long time to use gambling 3NT if we had to have that. So where do we stop?

AKQJTxx
AKQJxxx
AKQTxxx
AKQ5432

and where do we get similar odds with an 8 card suit. I.e. is AKJT5432 close enough odds to AKQ5432 to warrant a gambling 3NT. My gut tells me that it is. Bottom line is I would try gambling 3NT

And when do we run? Surely not every time the opps X or they would always X.

the numbers are there:

82.4% vs 73.5%
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#16 User is offline   Little Kid 

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Posted 2010-July-05, 09:31

It looked like 1 or 5 to me at the table, a little surprised at all the 3NTs.
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#17 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2010-July-05, 13:46

I'll go with 4♦. If LHO happens to bid 4♥ and pard axes this, so much the better :)
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#18 User is offline   nigel_k 

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Posted 2010-July-05, 15:27

3NT is not quite LOL for me but I definitely don't like it. Maybe my standards for LOL are higher than other people's. Anyway this is a pretty normal 5♦ for me, maybe a bit on the heavy side at the vulnerability. I will usually choose a preempt ahead of a one level opening if it's close.
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#19 User is offline   jdonn 

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Posted 2010-July-05, 16:09

I like 5♦ at this vul. If I open 4♦ and it goes 4♥ p p I'll feel guilty.

At neither vul I'd open 4♦, at only our side vul I'd open 1♦, and at both vul I'd choose between those but probably lean toward 1♦.
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#20 User is offline   helene_t 

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Posted 2010-July-05, 16:25

5♦.
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