[Phil]

Scoring: IMP

LHO overcalls 2C and RHO raises to 3 over the neg x.

Opening lead is a small club to the A and a club is continued. Over to you.

---

See above. How to continue?

[Fluffy]

first that comes to mind is ♠K, since LHO probably holds the ace, he will be forced to take it now unable to duck, and we can now draw another trump and run diamonds.

Probably there is something much better that copes some 4-1s.

[Little Kid]

Ruff and ♠ to Q? Probably missing something here

[gnasher]

Fluffy, on Apr 4 2010, 05:43 PM, said:

first that comes to mind is ♠K, since LHO probably holds the ace, he will be forced to take it now unable to duck, and we can now draw another trump and run diamonds.

Probably there is something much better that copes some 4-1s.

What will you do if LHO wins ♠A and plays a heart?

[pooltuna]

gnasher, on Apr 4 2010, 11:54 AM, said:

Fluffy, on Apr 4 2010, 05:43 PM, said:

first that comes to mind is ♠K, since LHO probably holds the ace, he will be forced to take it now unable to duck, and we can now draw another trump and run diamonds.

Probably there is something much better that copes some 4-1s.

What will you do if LHO wins ♠A and plays a heart?

duck of course but I was inclined to take the ♥ finesse at trick 2 as a gut reaction

[Jlall]

gnasher, on Apr 4 2010, 11:54 AM, said:

Fluffy, on Apr 4 2010, 05:43 PM, said:

first that comes to mind is ♠K, since LHO probably holds the ace, he will be forced to take it now unable to duck, and we can now draw another trump and run diamonds.

Probably there is something much better that copes some 4-1s.

What will you do if LHO wins ♠A and plays a heart?

RHO has the AJ of clubs at least, seems like we can safely place LHO with both the SA and the HK.

[Jlall]

What club spot did they lead and return phil? Do they play 3/5th? Seems like we would usually know at this point if clubs were 6-3 or 5-4 by now. If they both really led low every time I guess it's AJ9x and QT8xx.

[Phil]

Jlall, on Apr 4 2010, 02:44 PM, said:

What club spot did they lead and return phil? Do they play 3/5th? Seems like we would usually know at this point if clubs were 6-3 or 5-4 by now. If they both really led low every time I guess it's AJ9x and QT8xx.

LHO led the 10 actually - dummy's spots were 542 and RHO returned the 3.

[Phil]

Little Kid, on Apr 4 2010, 11:53 AM, said:

Ruff and ♠ to Q? Probably missing something here

I was playing with a recent BIL grad when this is what he played.

Can you see the pitfall in this play?

[qwery_hi]

Phil, on Apr 5 2010, 08:08 AM, said:

Little Kid, on Apr 4 2010, 11:53 AM, said:

Ruff and ♠ to Q? Probably missing something here 

I was playing with a recent BIL grad when this is what he played.

Can you see the pitfall in this play?

You will be left with no entry back to hand to enjoy the diamonds if LHO has AJx?

[jonottawa]

You might have added 'intermediate opps'.

Worst: 2♣ bid (2♣ bidder was rvw)

2nd Worst: ♠K play

I'm not sure AJx specifically is more likely on this auction than stiff A. It certainly wouldn't occur to me that LHO, who has already made an egregious overbid even if he has a 6-bagger, would have less than that.

[gnasher]

jonottawa, on Apr 7 2010, 12:06 PM, said:

You might have added 'intermediate opps'.

Worst: 2♣ bid (2♣ bidder was rvw)

2nd Worst: ♠K play

I'm not sure AJx specifically is more likely on this auction than stiff A.  It certainly wouldn't occur to me that LHO, who has already made an egregious overbid even if he has a 6-bagger, would have less than that.

It's AJx or A10x.

Say that clubs are 6=3.
A specific 3=2 break occurs 7/17 x 6/16 x 5/15 x 10/14 x 9/13
A specific 1=4 break occurs 7/17 x 10/16 x 9/15 x 8/14 x 7/13

Simplifying,
3=2:4=1 = 6 x 5 / (8 x 7 ) = 30/56

There are six relevant 3=2 breaks and one relevant 1=4 break, so AHx is more than 3 times as likely as stiff A.

Edit: That should be 7 revelant 3=2 breaks: I forgot about AJ10-xx.

[jonottawa]

I thought you'd be able to tell from my post that I'd looked up the actual hand. You're not down when you play a spade to the Q, but you are down when you play a spade back to the K (covering the J on your right.)

[gnasher]

jonottawa, on Apr 7 2010, 12:58 PM, said:

I thought you'd be able to tell from my post that I'd looked up the actual hand.  You're not down when you play a spade to the Q, but you are down when you play a spade back to the K (covering the J on your right.)

Sorry, but I'm not with you.

There are three possible lines:
(1) Lead the king from hand, which works against any 3-2 break (given ♥K onside).
(2) Lead to the queen, planning, if that holds, to duck a spade. This works against stiff A or Ax. It may also work against A10x=Jx if RHO doesn't unblock.
(3) Lead to the queen, planning to switch to diamonds if it holds. The success of this appears to depend upon the spade, heart and diamond layouts, and also in some lines on the ability of the opponents and your card-reading skills.

When you said "I'm not sure AJx specifically is more likely on this auction than stiff A", I thought you were comparing (1) with (2) In (2), I didn't consider the possibility of making against A10x=Jx, but even if you always make against that combination, AJx=10x is still more likely than A=J10xx.

So, which two lines were you comparing?

[jonottawa]

I'm not sure that when LHO doesn't lead a singleton red card that your math holds. I just think this is a bad problem because LHO's hand doesn't correspond to the bidding.

Anyway, you're right about the unblock, maybe you're playing against the Abbot (or jonowatta.) Unlikely the pard of someone who would perpetrate this bidding would find it.

Are you missing a 4th line? Lead up in case stiff A onside, then don't play the Q. What does that lose to? Guess that risks an uppercut in ♣. Anyway, I go back to my initial assessment.

[PrinceNep]

My line may be way off base, but I'm going to be play LHO for shortness in ♠ or ♦. As long as ♦ aren't 5-1, I'll get some good information on the hand.

At trick 2 I ruff the club in hand and play small to ♦K, and two more rounds of ♦ (intending on pitching the 3rd ♣ if LHO follows to 3 rounds).

1. If LHO ruffs the 3rd ♦ with a small card, I'll overuff with the ♠9 and lead the ♠Q off of dummy.

2. If LHO ruffs the 3rd ♦ with an intermediate (the 10 or J), I'll overuff with the ♠Q and hook the ♠8.

3. If LHO ruffs the 3rd ♦ with the ♠A, I'll pitch the club.

This also leaves me with options if RHO ruffs the 3rd ♦. Now I can attempt to smother his Hx by leading the ♠K from hand. If an honor doesn't appear on my right, then it is likely RHO started with Hxx and they are now 2-2 anyway.

If ♦ split 3-3, now I can play the ♠ suit correctly by leading toward the ♠Q and ducking the ♠ return.

I'm sure there may be flaws with this, but I don't see any reason why I should have to be the one to guess ♠ correctly at trick 2.

[gnasher]

jonottawa, on Apr 7 2010, 02:33 PM, said:

I'm not sure that when LHO doesn't lead a singleton red card that your math holds. I just think this is a bad problem because LHO's hand doesn't correspond to the bidding.

That's a good point. If we know that LHO has at least ten cards outside the trump suit, AHx becomes a lot less likely.

Quote

Are you missing a 4th line?  Lead up in case stiff A onside, then don't play the Q.  What does that lose to?  Guess that risks an uppercut in ♣.  Anyway, I go back to my initial assessment.

I hadn't thought of that, but I think it will usually fail against best defence. Apart from the uppercut possibility, which is quite likely, it might also lose if they play back a diamond. If I now play a spade (before or after ruffing a club), they can play another diamond, leaving me with no side entry to the winners with a trump still outstanding.

[Fluffy]

everybody is talking about the full hand but I cannot find it.

[Phil]

(ignore - use Gwnn's link)

Obviously pard gave this a weak effort.

At the time I thought Fluffy's original line (♠K from hand) was pretty reasonable without the benefit of a lot of study.

[gwnn]

http://tinyurl.com/yho54aq