jdonn, on Dec 29 2009, 01:42 PM, said:
But someone should do a sim, I wouldn't be surprised if 6NT is not a favorite opposite 13 with 5 clubs + any 14.
Giving south a balanced 1
♣ opening without four spades (4432, 4333 or 5332; 1C with (23)44), I get slam to be
12 HCP = 22% (9,495 deals)
13 HCP = 48% (6,362 deals)
14 HCP = 74% (4,143 deals)
on a double dummy basis. On the auction 1
♣-1
♠-1N-6N, I would expect declarer to have only a slight advantage over double dummy, probably small enough to ignore.
edit: added missing 3=4=3=3 shape to sample and increased sample size