[Jlall]

jdonn, on Dec 29 2009, 02:10 PM, said:

I'm surprised it's so high, glad I bid 4NT anyway! Was there a lot of guesses on suit combinations or something?

Heh, even if there are a lot of guessing combos slam is probably ~70% double dummy opposite 13 + 5 clubs or any 14 based on TimG's numbers. That is huge.

[kfay]

1st hand reminds me of a hand I played in a team game last week where my counterpart at the other table only bid 3NT.

I didn't think too much of it and bid 4NT, we made 6 on a squeeze. Sometimes it pays to be a bean-counter.

[cherdanno]

TimG, on Dec 29 2009, 02:05 PM, said:

jdonn, on Dec 29 2009, 01:42 PM, said:

But someone should do a sim, I wouldn't be surprised if 6NT is not a favorite opposite 13 with 5 clubs + any 14.

Giving south a balanced 1♣ opening without four spades (4432, 4333 or 5332; 1C with (23)44), I get slam to be

12 HCP = 25% (3,351 deals)
13 HCP = 52% (2,346 deals)
14 HCP = 78% (1,443 deals)

on a double dummy basis. On the auction 1♣-1♠-1N-6N, I would expect declarer to have only a slight advantage over double dummy, probably small enough to ignore.

I got substantially different numbers:

Quote

We make 6N 38.605% out of 20000 times
With 12 hcp we make 6N 1949 out of 9541 times
With 13 hcp we make 6N 2941 out of 6394 times
With 14 hcp we make 6N 2831 out of 4065 times

(That's 20.4%, 46.0% and 69.6%.)
My constrainst were: North is balanced (5332 or 4432 or 4333) without 4 spades, and with exactly 3=4=3=3 or 4+ clubs.

Btw, who talked about not bidding 4N? I just said I would rather bid 3N than 6N, and that still seems right to me.

Whether declarer has an advantage compared to double dummy will depend a lot on defenders' pseudo-squeeze skills. Against good defenders I would think declarer will be at a disadvantage.

[wank]

i'd respond 2D on the 2nd hand. It's about 85% that you'll end up in a slam when you're looking at 19 high and partner opens. Much better to start showing suits you've got values in. You don't really expect to play in spades do you, and you don't want partner cue-bidding the Q or converting to 6S.

[Jlall]

cherdanno, on Dec 29 2009, 04:05 PM, said:

Btw, who talked about not bidding 4N? I just said I would rather bid 3N than 6N, and that still seems right to me.

jdonn said:

In fact as I think of hands for partner, I'm very close to not even bidding 4NT.

[jdonn]

I agree the sims show me 4NT is clear. I bid it because I wasn't at all sure my feeling was right and because it would just be weird not to with a balanced 19. My feeling is confirmed as wrong. They do also confirm what I felt much more strongly and what everyone seems to agree, that 6NT is an overbid.

[Jlall]

How about trying to find partner's shape. If he has 5 clubs, our hand improves a lot. Also, if he has four hearts, our hand improves a lot (KQJ opp Axx is wastage, but opposite Axxx it's great).

Starting with 2D will help us find slam opposite Kx Axxx xx Axxxx/ Kx Txxx Kx AJxxx type hands that 4N will miss. We will be able to find out this shape via 1C-1S-1N-2D-2H-2N-3C.

Against that, bidding 2D may help pinpoint the lead against us when partner has something like Kxx Axx Jx AJxxx, and we make 6N when they don't lead a diamond and spades come up 3-3.

[chasetb]

1.) I am bidding 1♦ (partner can still bid 1♠ even when balanced, or could be 4-(4-1)-4). Your suit alone screams NO TRUMP, but I'd be worried about duplication in a slam contract, not to mention having enough HCP. When partner rebids, you will have a good idea on where to place the final contract (I'll still look over a 1NT rebid, but I would prefer any other bid). Besides, since you all your values are bunched together, it might be better to hide partner's hand if you can, so they can't potentially lead through a tenace.

2.) As 4NT then would mean RKC for ♥ for me, I am bidding that.

[Jlall]

Also, many people, especially on this forum, might rebid 1N with 1435. Getting to 6C opposite that shape could be a big winner, and we need very little for slam then (x Txxx KQx AJxxx). We could also need to be in 6C opposite 2425 hands where partner has KQ tight of one pointed suit, and we only have 1 stopper in the other pointed suit, and we have to knock something out (eg Jx Axxx KQ J9xxx).

[Jlall]

Also opposite 2245, it is easy to see how 6C could be better than 6N because partner can pitch his spade on the heart and then ruff a diamond, ie xx Ax Kxxx AJxxx. This hand probably passes 4N, but getting to 6C is possible after 2D. Also, if 1345 is possible for a 1N rebid for you, even more reason to check on partner's shape since 6C is going to be right veryyyy often opposite that shape.

Basically there is a lot of room between 1N and 4N, and I don't see any reason to be blasting. In general I think people bid 4N far too often rather than using their NMF system. I think by bidding 2D we will be able to get to some slams that would be missed because partner would pass 4N.

[TimG]

cherdanno, on Dec 29 2009, 04:05 PM, said:

My constraints were: North is balanced (5332 or 4432 or 4333) without 4 spades, and with exactly 3=4=3=3 or 4+ clubs.

I forgot to include 3=4=3=3. I'll include that shape and rerun to see if my numbers come closer to yours.

Tim

[TimG]

cherdanno, on Dec 29 2009, 04:05 PM, said:

Quote

We make 6N 38.605% out of 20000 times
With 12 hcp we make 6N 1949 out of 9541 times
With 13 hcp we make 6N 2941 out of 6394 times
With 14 hcp we make 6N 2831 out of 4065 times

(That's 20.4%, 46.0% and 69.6%.)
My constrainst were: North is balanced (5332 or 4432 or 4333) without 4 spades, and with exactly 3=4=3=3 or 4+ clubs.

I get 22% (9495), 48% (6362), 74% (4143) after adding in the 3=4=3=3s and increasing the sample size to 20,000. I imagine the difference is big enough to mean that we've done something slightly different in our samples, i.e. one of us has done something wrong. I already left one shape out of my original sample, so I'm willing to concede that it's probably me that made the error.

Edit:

I used:

shape(south, 2335 + 3235 + 3325 + 2434 + 3424 + 3334 + 2344 + 3244 + 3433)

to produce these numbers.

[whereagles]

late to this, but here it goes

Hand 1: KISS approach. 1♠, then 6NT over any min rebid.

Hand 2: 4♣, which should be a cue in supp or hearts, as it's past the obvious 3NT bid. If there's a chance pard misunderstands, 4NT and wish me luck.