[mike777]

Not in jest, you are missing a Keycard and the trump Q and without extra trump length

You still might bid it, however...


ON top of that if you find out partner has a minimum hand with a stiff spade, not great news...

[jillybean]

Yes of course we are, we also have a solid spade suit and 9+ card trump fit.
If we are not bidding slam on this, I'm going to the movies.

[mike777]

 jillybean, on 2026-September-04, 17:25, said:

Yes of course we are, we also have a solid spade suit and 9+ card trump fit.
If we are not bidding slam on this, I'm going to the movies.

What percentage slam is it?
Also why 9+, partner has denied extra trump length , so exactly 9 hearts.

If you are behind I understand, however if not, what percentage slam do you need at MP or IMP?

Btw going to the movies is always an excellent idea!

[jillybean]

IMP

[Cyberyeti]

mike777, on 2026-September-04, 17:46, said:

What percentage slam is it?
Also why 9+, partner has denied extra trump length , so exactly 9 hearts.

If you are behind I understand, however if not, what percentage slam do you need at MP or IMP?

Btw going to the movies is always an excellent idea!

The practical percentage is higher than the theoretical one. The ace of clubs needs to be cashed on the opening lead if trumps are 3-1 and the hand with 3 also has 3 or 4 spades.

Basically it's trumps 2-2 (40.7%) or:

a non club lead and trumps 3-1 and the hand with 3 trumps holding 3 or 4 spades

Trumps 3-1 (49.7%): spades 3-3 (35.4%) 4-2 the right way round (18.6%) = 26.8%

Now it depends on the auction, but if you assume opening leader is equally likely to lead a club or a diamond if he doesn't have the ace, this is enough to make the slam with the odds, and it gets further with the odds if he won't always lead the ace if he has it.

[pescetom]

If it's MP I think that even just knowing we are off an Ace and trumps Q with 9 is enough to deter me.
As it is, we lack JT too and so surely it drops to 40% if they lead clubs.
[Just seen that cyberyeti already gave the long version of same thing]

[pescetom]

 jillybean, on 2026-September-04, 17:16, said:

I have only just looked at the auction at the OT:

---

I would be uncomfortable bidding 4♥ fast arrival if I had Non-serious available here. I would bid 3NT (or 3♠ inverted in one partnership) and now South can continue with control bidding if she still thinks slam is better than the movies.

[heart76]

4♦, denying ♣ controls.
P will show ♣ control by bidding 4♠, otherwise we play 4♥.
His ♣K is protected from their lead and if they lead something else, declarer has the ♠ to throw his losers.

[pescetom]

 heart76, on 2026-September-05, 04:18, said:

4♦, denying ♣ controls.
P will show ♣ control by bidding 4♠, otherwise we play 4♥.
His ♣K is protected from their lead and if they lead something else, declarer has the ♠ to throw his losers.

Yes, if South has courage about trumps after 3NT then 4♦ - 4♠ is reasonable. Now as we play South will show even keycards and North will probably go for it, even if imagining a somewhat different hand (hearts Q and diamonds K, non-solid spades).

[WasWinM]

jillybean, on 2026-September-04, 17:25, said:

Yes of course we are, we also have a solid spade suit and 9+ card trump fit.
If we are not bidding slam on this, I'm going to the movies.

What are you going to see?
A couple of points concerning how you view your hand. The spade suit is not solid. It will only produce 6 tricks about 36% of the time (3-3 break).
As to the 9 card fit, it will only break 2-2 about 41% of the time.

As to using Keycard Blackwood, could your partner have held, x, Kxxxx, AKJx, Qxx? In other words, why use Keycard when you don't know if all the suit are controlled?

[WasWinM]

mike777, on 2026-September-04, 17:22, said:

Not in jest, you are missing a Keycard and the trump Q and without extra trump length

You still might bid it, however...


ON top of that if you find out partner has a minimum hand with a stiff spade, not great news...

I still don't understand the fallacy of using Keycard when you don't even know if clubs are controlled. x, Kxxxx, AKJx, Qxx.

[mike777]

mike777, on 2026-September-05, 13:27, said:

Brink discusses the issue of missing the AK in a side suit in a long interview video, listed on that other site I believe. I think he would agree to not use RKC, OTOH, he might not control bid...

As I mentioned finding partner has a minimum hand with a stiff spade is not great news.

https://adamparrisht...edRedirect=true



Adam Parrish link I think...

[jillybean]

mike777, on 2026-September-05, 13:35, said:

https://adamparrisht...edRedirect=true



Adam Parrish link I think...

Brink says many things; don’t cue bid, make general slam tries, sometimes you are missing an AK, sometimes they don’t find the lead, other times they do.

[mike777]

jillybean, on 2026-September-06, 20:53, said:

Brink says many things; don’t cue bid, make general slam tries, sometimes you are missing an AK, sometimes they don’t find the lead, other times they do.

And they anchored and won the world team championship, only...

[thepossum]

 jillybean, on 2026-September-03, 09:56, said:

---

Bid this with me. I'll force you to make a Jacoby 2nt raise, we can discuss the spade suit later.

I haven't read the thread yet and unfortunately cannot follow along because I bid 2 spades showing spades and heart support edit and my splinter. After reading the thread I am not sure where we stop

[jillybean]

I am never going to reach the level of Brink. Let's just get that out of the way!

However, I do want to play in a world championship one day without being totally humiliated. I know I lack the innate, top-tier skill of the masters.
If reaching that level is purely a matter of studying the game, I honestly don't currently have the dedication, discipline, and memory capacity needed
- although the first two might change if I found myself in a serious, committed partnership.

Right now, I just want to get out there, improve my play,try new things and bid slams others wouldn't bid.