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With 4432 strong opening hand, I'd have already raised 3M, or even I choose not to do so, my 2M raise still guaranteed playing values HCP-wise.
I see, with 15-17 bal, 4-4 M-m, you jump raise to 3M? OK, but I like the K-S approach better, raise only to two, then 2 = strong bal or sound min unbal, which works out to similar playing strength. This avoids going down 1 at 3 when responder only has 5-8 & isn't bidding game, when things break badly.
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The advantage for 4-card majors comes up when responder has 5♣ and around 7-8 hcp. If opener has FOUR clubs, then the 9-card club fit will likely produce tricks, and these 3NTs can easily make (and notice that strong notrumpers won't be able to find them, and will probably pass out 1NT-2S on these hands). But if opener has 3 (or even 2) clubs, the fit is not nearly as effective a source of tricks, and these 23 hcp 3NTs will tend to go down.
The 4 cd major proponents are far too paranoid about opener being on the 3cd minor when playing 5cM. Run a sim. RHO's interference cuts down on the frequency of the 3c minor *a lot*. We aren't losing much here, just assume partner has 4c minor even though we play 5cM. He will the vast majority of the time.
Playing wkNT/5cM in most of my serious partnerships for the past 5 years, I just can't remember these auctions being discussed as being a major source of losses. There are some theoretical issues here, but in practice they don't come up at the table with enough frequency to have a significant impact on your score, not even enough to cause any of the discomfort & stress that Fred thinks saps your energy from other boards. On some of these auctions, the methods can lead to some guessing if you get preempted, but one doesn't always have to guess wrong. When the opponents are bidding a lot, they usually have a big fit, and partner will be most often on the longer side of his suit length range & you usually will guess correctly.
The losses that I do remember coming up with any significant frequency are
- inferior partials, e.g. missing 2S when 1nt passed out
- Opening strong NT hand with a suit, letting 4th hand get in a cheap lead director
that either scuttles 3nt or keeps us out of 3nt, which the field can make on a blind
lead.
- opening strong NT with a suit, letting the opponents find their partial or push us to down 1, when the field plays 1nt making.
- after wk nt, occasional big penalty or down 2 undoubled vul vs. nothing
- random swings both ways from playing a contract from the other side
These of course are offset by many gains in various situations, otherwise we wouldn't be playing it.