Posted 2012-September-13, 10:25
I found this a very interesting hand.
We can infer a lot about this hand, but still be left with what is, in essence, a guess...albeit one in which some choices seem more probable than others.
I am winning the diamond K and returning a spade.
I think partner could have switched to the 10 from Q10xx, so playing the 9 seems like catering to a dubious play by partner...it is difficult to see a layout where, from partner's pov, the 10 would be the losing play in the suit.
I am not giving partner a ruff. The low diamond wasn't suit preference...the lead told us, on this auction, that partner held a stiff and he knows we know that (leaving aside the knowledge we have of the shape, having seen dummy and our hand). he was telling us he held the diamond Q and not, imo, the 10.
So we switch to a spade....declarer has to duck and partner leads his last trump. We get 4 winners in the fullness of time.
On these layouts, could/should declarer have done better? I don't cater to AQJ AQxxx xx Axx for several reasons.
1. that hand is too good for 1N, tho of course others may differ.
2. I don't think he has xx in diamonds for reasons given above
I am more inclined to think AQx AQxxx 10x Axx.
Yes, he could have risen with the diamond Ace, drawn trump and then ducked a club, but as paulg pointed out, we counter by letting him hold this trick....he is left with 2 spades, a diamond and a trump to lose.
maybe declarer could have tried a different line tho I am far from sure that he has any winning options on this layout....he can deduce the stiff club just as readily as we can so his best hope was probably a defensive error...tho note that if our spades were Jxx, and his were AQ9, we'd be the ones with no winning option on winning the diamond K.
'one of the great markers of the advance of human kindness is the howls you will hear from the Men of God' Johann Hari