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(Mind) hand reading

#1 User is offline   bluecalm 

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Posted 2012-February-13, 16:58



Matchpoints, average opps who play 2/4 leads, UDCA (which means 2nd from both Hxx and xxx) and lavinthal discards.
Play:

5, 8, J, K
T, 3, 2, 4
6, 9, Q, 7
A, 7, 5, 2
T, 3, 4, 5
8, A, 9, 7
J, A, 2, 3
K, 7, 2, 6
Q, 6, 4, J

And now the moment of truth has come. We have K Q54 in hand and 8 AT3 in dummy and we need to guess diamonds.
I missed it and I wonder what kind of thought process should give me clues here.
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#2 User is offline   wyman 

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Posted 2012-February-13, 18:54

Putting on my detective hat:

The lead: LHO led from a 3 card suit; certainly he does not have 5 clubs.

First discard: LHO the lavinthal 2, suggesting clubs. This could be the Q but another implication is that he doesn't have KJ, especially since he could spare a high heart spot.
RHO played the 7, which we now know was his lowest. This is ostensibly also a club signal, and it was played before LHO's 2.

Carding in the side suits: Both gave count in spades and hearts, so I have no reason to distrust their carding. LHO's 2 should probably be UD count after the 2, but (a) there's really no need at this point to card faithfully, and (b) it's not clear that he's not just giving positive attitude, which he might if the J is a true card.

So far we have LHO = 953 752 6 72 + 4 cards

Ok, so I'll trust the J, and assume that LHO has the CQ. Also I think it's unlikely that he pitched the 7 and stiffed his Q. So my guess is that LHO has 2 diamonds and 2 clubs remaining. I can totally see something like 953/752/Jxx/Qxxx picking a spade here. It's less attractive to do that from Kxx. But the shape imo is more interesting. Since I think diamonds are 2-2, and I had reason to believe that LHO doesn't have KJ, I think we can't go wrong playing ace and a diamond. If they are 3-1, LHO must have 3, since otherwise he'd have started w 5 clubs. But again, since I don't think he has KJx (recall the 2), that would put a stiff honor with RHO, so I'll still play ace and a diamond.

Did I win?
"I think maybe so and so was caught cheating but maybe I don't have the names right". Sure, and I think maybe your mother .... Oh yeah, that was someone else maybe. -- kenberg

"...we live off being battle-scarred veterans who manage to hate our opponents slightly more than we hate each other.” -- Hamman, re: Wolff
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#3 User is offline   quiddity 

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Posted 2012-February-13, 20:16

I don't think East started with 4 diamonds or three diamonds including the jack, else he might have pitched a club instead at trick 4. I also don't think he would have stiffed the king. I would lead the queen of diamonds (intending to duck if West covers and finesse on the next round) to pick up an original xx or Jx with East.

edit: Also, it might have been better psychologically to discard a club from dummy at trick 8 and see one more discard from West before pitching the long diamond.
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#4 User is offline   Yu18772 

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Posted 2012-February-14, 13:09

I am not an expert, but that would be my thinking:
W started out with 3:3 in majors, thus with 4:3 in minors, meaning that E started with 2 or 3 diamonds.
E first discard was a , which doesnt make sense if he held an Hxx after the ATxx, so I would play W for both honors - i.e run the Q, and finesse the T.
Yu Posted Image
Yehudit Hasin

"But I don't want to go among mad people," Alice remarked.
"Oh, you can't help that," said the Cat: "we're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad."
"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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#5 User is offline   gszes 

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Posted 2012-February-14, 16:31

if i started with
xxx
xxx
KJxx
xxx

I would lead a low dia vs spade

if i started with
xxx
xxx
Jxxx
xxx

I would avoid a dia and lead a spade

with
xxx
xxx
Kxxx
xxx

a diamond once again vs a spade.

IMO lho is close to broke and was trying to hit p with
spade lead. I find it impossible to believe lho has
whittled themselves down to 3 dia and began life with
Kxxx or KJxx dia. This means even if lho began life with
4 dia Jxxx is the most they had. Rho has the dia K
or lho has reduced to KJ dia stiff with an original
holding of xxx xxx KJx xxxx (with or w/o Q) so rho
has


any 2 dia
any 2 clu

K
xxx

KJx
x

even the hugely unlikely
J
xxx

I would lead a dia to the A and
a dia and be shocked if this
wasn't 100%
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#6 User is offline   bluecalm 

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Posted 2012-February-15, 05:16

Quote

Did I win?


Yes.

Quote

I would lead a dia to the A and
a dia and be shocked if this
wasn't 100%


Yeah, I screw that up, I thought LHO started with 3-3-4-Qxx and didn't lead a diamond because of Jxxx. Opponent's hands:

953      J74
752      AJ63
96       KJ87
QT972   J6

Good to have this forum :)
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#7 User is offline   Yu18772 

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Posted 2012-February-15, 08:14

well done gszes Posted Image

YuPosted Image
Yehudit Hasin

"But I don't want to go among mad people," Alice remarked.
"Oh, you can't help that," said the Cat: "we're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad."
"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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#8 User is offline   wyman 

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Posted 2012-February-15, 08:28

View Postbluecalm, on 2012-February-15, 05:16, said:

Yes.


I think the biggest thing for me was the 2. If this is really a club card, I can't see how low to the ace, low to the queen is wrong.

But I did not see lefty holding a five card club suit.
"I think maybe so and so was caught cheating but maybe I don't have the names right". Sure, and I think maybe your mother .... Oh yeah, that was someone else maybe. -- kenberg

"...we live off being battle-scarred veterans who manage to hate our opponents slightly more than we hate each other.” -- Hamman, re: Wolff
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#9 User is offline   bluecalm 

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Posted 2012-February-15, 08:30

To be honest I didn't appreciate 2 as lavinthal during the hand. I thought they are just discarding cards they don't need :) Only later I realized it showed club values (it was Polish tourney and in Poland everybody play lavinthal discards vs NT).

So now it seems I should edit the topic of this thread to: "simple technical question" instead of hand reading ;)
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#10 User is offline   wyman 

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Posted 2012-February-15, 08:35

Even then, I think I'd play low to the ace.

I am not playing LHO for 5 clubs, so either the diamonds are 2-2 or 3-1, stiff on the right. And I think LHO would have led a diamond from the K, so I'll cater to stiff K on the right.

This time I would have won for the wrong reasons :)
"I think maybe so and so was caught cheating but maybe I don't have the names right". Sure, and I think maybe your mother .... Oh yeah, that was someone else maybe. -- kenberg

"...we live off being battle-scarred veterans who manage to hate our opponents slightly more than we hate each other.” -- Hamman, re: Wolff
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