Posted 2012-February-13, 18:54
Putting on my detective hat:
The lead: LHO led from a 3 card suit; certainly he does not have 5 clubs.
First discard: LHO the lavinthal ♥2, suggesting clubs. This could be the ♣Q but another implication is that he doesn't have ♦KJ, especially since he could spare a high heart spot.
RHO played the ♦7, which we now know was his lowest. This is ostensibly also a club signal, and it was played before LHO's ♥2.
Carding in the side suits: Both gave count in spades and hearts, so I have no reason to distrust their carding. LHO's ♣2 should probably be UD count after the ♥2, but (a) there's really no need at this point to card faithfully, and (b) it's not clear that he's not just giving positive attitude, which he might if the ♣J is a true card.
So far we have LHO = ♠953 ♥752 ♦6 ♣72 + 4 cards
Ok, so I'll trust the ♣J, and assume that LHO has the CQ. Also I think it's unlikely that he pitched the ♣7 and stiffed his Q. So my guess is that LHO has 2 diamonds and 2 clubs remaining. I can totally see something like 953/752/Jxx/Qxxx picking a spade here. It's less attractive to do that from Kxx. But the shape imo is more interesting. Since I think diamonds are 2-2, and I had reason to believe that LHO doesn't have KJ, I think we can't go wrong playing ace and a diamond. If they are 3-1, LHO must have 3, since otherwise he'd have started w 5 clubs. But again, since I don't think he has KJx (recall the ♥2), that would put a stiff honor with RHO, so I'll still play ace and a diamond.
Did I win?
"I think maybe so and so was caught cheating but maybe I don't have the names right". Sure, and I think maybe your mother .... Oh yeah, that was someone else maybe. -- kenberg
"...we live off being battle-scarred veterans who manage to hate our opponents slightly more than we hate each other.” -- Hamman, re: Wolff