Zelandakh, on 2011-July-19, 04:43, said:
I did not say that I could not come up with a reasonable sequence but I try to be honest about how I would bid a hand. Over 3S, 5H from Opener would specifically be an ask for the major queens, the perfect bid on this hand! However this was not my first choice (I wanted to know how many controls before committing to slam) so I did not give it as my sequence. I have been thinking over whether this was a good decision or not. I also mentioned that with different design decisions it is trivial for a relay system to get this right - I expect a few such auctions to be posted here presently.
The reason why I do not believe the 4D splinter solves the hand is for the case when Opener has, for example, the HQ instead of the CK. Now you surely prefer to be in 6H over 6S - make the clubs slightly weaker still with a touch more in diamonds if you like - 6H is still the spot. I agree entirely that if North has to choose between setting spades or agreeing hearts opposite any 4 then spades is the better option. Perhaps there are possible methods where North can show 6 good spades and 4 medicore hearts though? After Cyber's 1NT response it seems to me that there ought to be enough bidding space to get this right all of the time. Perhaps a good start would be to get the continuations outside of a 2C ask and see if there are spare bids that might be used.
Maybe this is a matter of bidding philosophies.
My attitude is that there is only so much you can scientifically accomplish in the bidding and for the rest it is sensible to rely on probabilities like in the play of the hand.
Let's assume you find out with opener's notrump rebid that he is balanced with a maximum of 19 HCP and you are looking at responders hand.
You know that you have a slam invitation. What is the most important information to decide this issue?
My answer: Whether we will have duplication in
♦ will most likely be the deciding factor whether slam will be a good bet.
Showing your shortage will allow opener to make an informed decision below game.
Will the trump suit matter? It could, but that is remote. For starters, for a 6
♥ contract to compete with 6
♠, opener will need a 4 card
♥ suit including the king and the queen.
Otherwise it is very unlikely that 6
♥ will be a better contract than 6
♠. Even when opener meets this condition it may not matter which major you choose as trumps.
I did a computer simulation (1000 deals ) with responders hand.
Opener 18-19 balanced, at most 3
♠s,
♣ longer than
♦ unless 3
♠=4
♥=3
♦=3
♣:
Under those conditions the chance that opener has been dealt 4 cards in
♥ including the king and queen (either
♥AKQx or
♥KQxx) is only 18%.
Assuming this favorable conditions for
♥ to be present in opener's hand, 6
♥ makes double dummy on 738 (73.8%) deals and 6
♠ on 693(69,3%) deals.
Average number of tricks in a
♥ contract is 11.82 tricks and in a spade contract is 11.66 tricks
when 6
♥ makes, 6
♠ makes in 79%
when 6
♠ makes, 6
♥ makes in 84%
when 6
♥ is down, 6
♠ will make in 41%
when 6
♠ is down, 6
♥ will make in 50%
Is searching for an alternative
♥ strain really more important than telling opener what is needed for slam and to stop in game safely when the conditions are not present?
Rainer Herrmann