question on partnership trumps
#1
Posted 2011-May-28, 18:28
I was wondering if there is anyone who has played over 50,000 boards who has never held all 13 cards(for partnership) in one suit?
Some of the online players playing 500 hands a week are playing over 25,000 hands a year.
Thanks,
jogs
ps. My partnership has held all 13 cards in one suit before.
#2
Posted 2011-May-28, 18:31
#3
Posted 2011-May-28, 19:40
wyman, on 2012-May-04, 09:48, said:
rbforster, on 2012-May-20, 21:04, said:
My YouTube Channel
#4
Posted 2011-May-28, 20:48
#5
Posted 2011-May-30, 02:14
jogs, on 2011-May-28, 18:28, said:
Sorry but this statement is wrong. There will always be a very small percentage that won't hold 13 cards in 1 suit after 50000 boards, even after 100000 boards. If you check enough players, then you'll always find one. If there aren't enough players now, you can use "time" to get more players involved, so over a certain period of time (= multiple generations) there will be one for sure.
Btw, do you care to explain how you get to that 1 out of 15000? And is that really the chance per pair and not per board?
jogs, on 2011-May-28, 18:28, said:
Probably. I'm not interested in doing the math (too complicated because many people play the same boards), but if you calculate percentages and how many players there are who have played 50000+ boards I guess you can calculate there's a big chance there's at least 1 somewhere in the world.
#6
Posted 2011-May-30, 10:01
manudude03, on 2011-May-28, 18:31, said:
Hadn't occurred to me to do the math on it. Didn't realize the chance of it not happening was so high.
Just ran it through Excel. I got
3.779% chance of never for 50k hands.
0.143% chance of never for 100k hands.
#7
Posted 2011-May-30, 10:14
Free, on 2011-May-30, 02:14, said:
Btw, do you care to explain how you get to that 1 out of 15000? And is that really the chance per pair and not per board?
There's a math function in Excel called hypgeomdist.
Choose 13 cards of one suit among 26 cards of the partnership.
Sample s(uccesses) is number of successes.
13 in this case.
Number_sample is the size of the sample.
26 cards for partnership.
Population s(uccesses) is number of possible successes within the population.
13 cards in a suit.
Number pop is the population size
52 cards in a deck.
Then multiple that number by 4, since there are 4 suits in a deck.
That's the chance of one pair holding all 13 cards in one suit for one board.
#8
Posted 2011-May-30, 10:42
= (26! / 13!) / (52! / 39!)
~= 1/61055
#9
Posted 2011-May-30, 12:26
#10
Posted 2011-May-30, 16:25
Board 5 from the BBO vugraph archive:
Link to hand viewer
#11
Posted 2011-May-31, 15:20