Posted 2010-July-24, 12:37
From the first two tricks it looks like the clubs are 7-2 (else why would RHO encourage). I expect LHO holds the ♦K and perhaps we can win 3 diamond tricks if it's doubleton. The lead and long pause for thought suggest that he doesn't have a singleton spade.
Some possible hands for LHO:
7x xx Kx AK98xxx
7x Qx Kx AK98xxx
7xx x Kx AK98xxx
If he has the third hand it's hard to make the contract. Perhaps he would have jumped to 3C with that hand anyway.
If he has either of the first two hands we can make the contract if we can guess the ♥Q: draw trumps, SK, DA, duck a diamond. West wins his king and is endplayed into leading a club which we can ruff in dummy (pitching the spade loser) to take the diamond finesse.
The queen is more likely to be with the 3-card holding (hand 1) but perhaps LHO would bid 3C with only 10 points and perhaps he would have led a trump at trick 3. It feels like a close decision.