[gwnn]

nobody vulnerable we are 3rd seat MP's

x
AKQxxx
xxxx
xx

p-(2♠)-?

apparently 2♠ is either 5S-5m with 6-9 or 3-6 with just 6 spades.

[Hanoi5]

What's obvious? I don't know what to do!

3♥ might lead partner to think I have an opening bid and doubling the likely 4♠. 4♥ could do the same, though it may be better. 5♥ right away is just too risky. Pass could be nice if they don't get to 4♠ but it might be a fantasy. I might bid 4♥.

[whereagles]

3♥. Let them guess what the 2♠ was made of.. lol.

Edit: there is a lot of merit on pass, though. A bit of gambling, but sensible given pard's pass.

[Free]

3♥, I don't like it 100%, but like the alternatives even less.

[Fluffy]

I'd pass

[mikegill]

I would bid 3♥, but I don't think it's completely obv. This could win because it tells partner what to lead if they don't end up in spades, or because we have a save over 4♠, or because they misjudge and double me when they shouldn't. I have enough shape to make this bid somewhat safe.

[pooltuna]

too close to a preempt/preempt for me so I pass

[aguahombre]

Hanoi5, on Jul 12 2010, 06:07 AM, said:

What's obvious? I don't know what to do!

And LHO, with around 15+, with or without spade support, will probably know what to do if I bid 3H ---more so than CHO will.

I don't know what to do, either, and will choose to do nothing. But I think I will know what to lead. Or maybe David's partner is LHO, and we will be minus 260.

[mikeh]

Pass

I don't think anything good will usually come from bidding. Sure, maybe we have a good save, or even a freakish make, in some high number of hearts, but so what?

If I overcall 3♥, partner should play me for more defence and we may be defending a doubled contract...or he may save...and I have a lot of losers. If I bid 4♥, that shows a MUCH stronger hand.

They have the master suit; I'm almost certainly on lead and I probably won't enjoy saving....so why bid?

[JLOGIC]

This is the 2nd problem like this posted recently...

We have NINE points and partner is a passed hand! Bidding could often have as many as SIXTEEN points, which is SEVEN more than we have!! It's not our hand, it's theirs!

If we bid we might end up in something doubled, or most likely we will induce our partner to double them!

Yes you could genius it up and end in 4H undoubled down 1 or 2 for a good save over their making partial. Or you could catch some kind of magic hand where partner has long hearts and a stiff diamond. But it is not percentage!

To add to my high level POINT COUNT analysis, I will add "Don't preempt over a preempt!"

Most people would open this 3H!

[jdonn]

I thought this was very different from the other problem. We at least know we will be in the right suit on this one, we are less likely to be doubled, and if partner bids 3NT it's not such a disaster.

Also because of their dumb system they will have a hard time knowing what to do, like LHO will be 2245 and not know whether to go for spades or a minor. Bidding here has a TON more going for it than on the other problem!

I still don't think I would bid here but it's close unlike the LOL other problem.

[JLOGIC]

The main reason the other one was LOL more than this is because that one was vulnerable.

The "big" gain here is when you steal it for -100 undoubled in 4H and they make a partial. If we were vulnerable here it would be completely lol because even if we get to 4H we will often go down 2.

Agreed that we will cause them problems sometimes, but even if LHO guesses wrong and bids 3S or passes, partner is going to bid, so it doesn't really matter. It just seems like such an absurd gamble to try and save in 4H vs their partial to me (even though that is more likely than finding a good save imo).

[shaztaz]

I'd pass, but I can see how this may work out poorly sometimes.

[jjbrr]

shaztaz, on Jul 12 2010, 08:48 PM, said:

I'd pass, but I can see how this may work out poorly sometimes.

agree with shaz!

[the hog]

Partner is a passed hand for heaven's sake. PASS!!!!!!!!!!!! I would pass this even if partner was unpassed.

[mrdct]

How about 3NT?

With partner a passed hand it seems likely that the opps are cold for 4♠, but a normal competive auction (be that bidding 3♥ and partner raising or me bidding 4♥ immediately) will almost certainly see them bid 4♠ quite easily and it's always a hit and miss to compete to the 5-level at nil vul.

By bidding 3NT, good things can happen:

- it could get passed out undoubled and I only need to make one trick to beat their game and if I happen to go 9 down, I just need them to be able to make 11 or 12 tricks in ♠ to get an above average score;
- if they double me, I might get to play in 4♥x which could well be a good save but will still beat the people who push-on to 5♥x;
- the retreat to 4♥ after getting hit in 3NT should give partner the message that 3NT was based on a source in tricks in ♥ with little or nothing outside so that should stop him from doubling 4♠ based on presumed defensive tricks in my hand;
- I could be talking my opponents out of a cold slam if they have all the values and one of them has a ♥ shortage.

[gwnn]

It was completely immaterial what you did on this hand. So why are we discussing this? Oh right, mrdct gets a big fat zero.

I bid 3♥, LHO bid 3♠, just made. RHO had a good 9 count with 6 spades. tut tut.

[mrdct]

gwnn, on Jul 13 2010, 06:38 AM, said:

Oh right, mrdct gets a big fat zero.

I bid 3♥, LHO bid 3♠, just made. RHO had a good 9 count with 6 spades. tut tut.

Have you got the hand and traveller? Might I not get out for -2 in 4♥ undoubled as a profitable save against 3♠?

[gwnn]

As far as I remember, LHO had a balanced hand with 2 spades and quote some points. I think he'd double us. I'll try to find the full hand later, this happened two weeks ago.

[gwnn]

well this is embarrassing. looks like they make very little in spades and we make 9 tricks in hearts. also, partner is not a passed hand.

-----------------------------------------------
!                                             !
! 8      86                                   !
! West   AKQ654                               !
! None   9854                                 !
!        7                                    !
! AQ7543        KJ                            !
! 83            J97                           !
! 63            AKQJ7                         !
! Q62           J109                          !
!        1092                                 !
!        102                                  !
!        102                                  !
!        AK8543                               !

traveller:
+150 34.9
+100 23.3
+50 10.6
-100 6.4
-110 4.3
-140 2.2
-450 0.1 (!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)

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