[RMB1]

campboy, on May 25 2010, 11:49 AM, said:

As any of my first-year probability students would be able to tell you, the answer to the question "how likely is it that this board was fairly dealt given the hand I have?" depends on three things: the ab initio chance of a fair deal; the chance of this hand being dealt given a fair deal (which is, as you say, the same for every hand); and the chance of this hand being dealt given an unfair deal (which very much isn't).

Perhaps we should also consider the probability that the hand is a deliberate "joke".
I think: P(13 spades | joke) > P(random hand | joke)
I think campboy presumes: P(13 spades | dealing error) > P(random hand | dealing error)

Since there is some chance of either jokes and/or dealing error,
we must conclude: P(13 spades) > P(random hand)

[nige1]

TylerE, on May 21 2010, 09:41 AM, said:

No adjustment. How can W possibly think the XX was to play? Is he thinking his partner made a  penalty X of a strong NT on a 6 count? Also, I think a XX here has to be self alerting.

If the redouble isn't alertable, then I agree with no adjustment. Otherwise I agree with Bluejak. it seems to me, East-West probably suffered damage. For example, if West has a good hand, all that he knows is that somebody has shaded their bid or made a mistake.

Fluffy, on May 24 2010, 10:21 AM, said:

If dealer had psyched 1NT it might be reasonable for south to bid just 2♥ to lure redoubler into doubling a partscore since he is in a forcing pass situation. Passing wont work as opener is gonna run. Obviously not the case but anything is possible

I also agree with Fluffy. Opener may have psyched or even failed to alert because he's forgotten that redouble is SOS for minors. Notice that If West hopes to be doubled, he will be reluctant to protect himself by asking the meaning of the redouble. because ...

• This results in unauthorised information to partner that handicaps him in the subsequent auction.
  
• Worse, it also wake-ups or tips-off opponents, who may smell a rat, reducing the chances of a double.

Protect yourself = a legal euphemism = inflict extra damage on your side