Posted 2010-April-13, 08:20
Hand 1:
The opening lead seems to be from ♥ Kxxx, but the play works also if the lead was from ♥ Qxxx
Win and trump a ♥ and trump back a ♦, draw trumps and play all your trumps except one, to reach the following 5 card ending:
♦ AQ
♣ AQT
♠ X
♥ JT9
♦ -
♣ X
Exit with a heart. West can either play low or high.
If West plays low East is end played.
If West plays high your ♥s are good
Hand 2:
If you discard a ♣, you have 12 tricks if ♦ break (68%) and 11 if they are 4-1
If ♦ are 5-0 you can still start by playing on clubs after 2 rounds of ♦
If you discard a ♦, you have 12 tricks if either minor breaks and the club finesse wins (45%)
So discarding a ♣ wins whenever ♦ break and the ♣ finesse looses. (34%)
Discarding a ♦ wins whenever ♦ do not break, but ♣ do, and the ♣ finesse wins (11%)
Guess what you should do.
Rainer Herrmann