BBO Discussion Forums: 1C-1D semipositive - BBO Discussion Forums

Jump to content

  • 5 Pages +
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • You cannot start a new topic
  • You cannot reply to this topic

1C-1D semipositive

#41 User is offline   rbforster 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 1,611
  • Joined: 2006-March-18

Posted 2010-February-23, 09:23

straube, on Feb 22 2010, 10:16 PM, said:

2N as 25+ would work, but I have need of 2N.  I want it to show 6C/4H but I'll settle on 6C/4D to make it GCC legal. 

For 2N you mean x4x6 or xx46 as a limited opening or a strong one? You could play a 2N opener as GF balanced and maybe add in some very strong distributional hands too (balanced hand doesn't bid past 3N in response to most of responders bids normally, so you could show some extra things that way). GCC lets you play whatever you want along the lines of a strong 2 opener.

Quote

I like putting my medium 5H/4m hands in with my medium 6H hands.  I'm basically in the same position as 1C-1D (0-7), 1H-1S (0-4), 2H.

Sure, and it's the same position as with weaker hands that end up bidding 1C-1D(0-7)-2H, and although here you've got a slightly stronger hand (since you can pass the 1H double negative with the weakest ones). But this is the single worst auction playing 1C-1D-1H as artificial and strong! Improving on that should certainly be a goal, if not a priority. In contrast, natural auctions will go 1H-P, 1H-1X-3m, both of which seem better than making responder guess whether to go hunting for a better fit after (essentially) 2H (5+).

Quote

think I'm +1 for balanced and +2 for certain of the balanced because I used 1C-1S, 1N-2H to show 3-suited hands.  In any case, my scheme is pretty close to Moscito. 

I see what's going on - you included 5332's in balanced, while TOSR shows those as single-suiters. This, together with adding the 3-suiters to your balanced block, meant it resolved pretty high (~3H for balanced, 3S for 4441, 3N for 5440). TOSR's CRASH scheme for bidding 4333/4432's gets all the balanced hands resolved around 3C-3D; 4441's come in around 3D and 5440's around 3S. So you are +1 to +2, but you're forgetting that now you're +0 on the 1-suiters since you removed the 5332's (which offsets starting one level higher initially than they do).

I'd remove the 5332's from balanced and put them in the 1-suiters, since the higher one-suiters have 7+ suits and can go past 3N pretty safely. OTOH, cramming in the very common balanced hands barely under 3N doesn't leave any space for a safe slam try and response without forcing to 4N (something you get in TOSR if you finish at 3D, 3H asks for strength and then with 3S/3N as first two weakest steps, you can still stop low).

Quote

Can you find improvements for how the positives relay?  Should be the same for the semipositives then.

Improvements how? The whole point of symmetric relay is that every single sequence has a meaning assigned to it, and roughly in probability order so common hands finish lower. It's mathematically impossible to fit in more shapes and/or at a lower level without sacrificing performance on others. Were you thinking of other goals here?
0

#42 User is offline   akhare 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 1,261
  • Joined: 2005-September-04
  • Gender:Male

Posted 2010-February-23, 11:35

This is an aside to a very interesting discussion, but one thing to consider is that when responder holds the DN hand, the opps can intervene more often than not.

In other words, when responder holds a very weak hand, the chances are that bidding by the opponents may make the 1 vs. 1 DN distinction moot...
foobar on BBO
0

#43 User is offline   straube 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 4,096
  • Joined: 2009-January-18
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Vancouver WA USA

Posted 2010-February-23, 12:11

I was going to put my 11-15 6C/4D into 2N (6C/4H works better but isn't GCC legal). I'm not married to the idea, but it takes a little pressure off of my 2C opening (now 6C, 6C/4M)

I redid the frequency for rebids after 1C-1H and it was something like (small sample)...

P-7
1S-28
1N-41
2C-11
2D-1
2H-0
2S-4
2N-7

As you can see, the 2D bid (medium H or medium H/m) didn't get a lot of use...probably if I ran enough hands it might. Anyway, I have a glitch in my structure because I can't show minimum 5S/4m. Probably 1C-1H, 2S should be minimum 5S/4m and 1C-1H, 1S-1N, 2H-2S, P should be minimum 6S and 1C-1H, 1S-1N, 2S should show medium 6S or medium 5S/4m.

Looking through hands, it seems like the 1C-DN hands average about 21 hcp for our side, so they're clearly contested. One can argue that 1C-1S preempts the opponents and doesn't let them have a spade overcall. OTOH, on these auctions we have the bid and have to land somewhere unless the opponents take it from us. They also have dbl (as well as pass) so I'm still thinking that leaving the space after 1C-1H helps us more than our opponents. What do you think?

How would you organize the positives then? Do the 1-suiters (including 5-card suits) start at 2D?
0

#44 User is offline   straube 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 4,096
  • Joined: 2009-January-18
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Vancouver WA USA

Posted 2010-February-23, 12:17

1C-1H,

.....P-minimum 5H/4m or 5H332 or minimum 6H
.....1S-1N(3-4)/2C(0-2)/2D(0-2) with both majors/2M(0-2) with 6M
..........2C/P of 2C=to play
..........2D-to play
..........2H-artificial GF OR spade minimum
...............2S-all without 4 spades
....................P-spade minimum
....................2N-relays
.........................3C-four hearts
..............................3D-relays
...................................3H-four clubs
...................................3S-hearts
...................................3N-four diamonds
..........................3D-four clubs
...............................3H-relays
....................................3S-diamonds
....................................3N-clubs
...........................3H-diamonds
...............2N-four spades, four hearts
...............3C-four spades, four clubs
...............3D-spades
...............3H-four spades, four diamonds
..........2S-medium spades or medium 5S/4m
..........2N-GF clubs, possible side
...............3C-waits
..........3C-GF diamonds, possible side
..........3D-GF H
..........3H-GF S
..........3S-GF m/m
...............3N-no fit
..........3N-to play
.....1N-good 16-20 balanced or 4441
.....2C-majors OR 25+ bal
..........2D-asks
...............2H-4S/5H or 5S/5H, minimum
....................2S-4 spades, 3-4
...............2S-5S/4H, minimum
...............2N-25+ bal
...............3C-5S/4H, medium
...............3D-4S/6H, f
...............3H-6S/4H, f
..........2H-fit or 2-cd preference
...............2S-5S/4H, medium
..........2S-fit or 2-cd preference
.....2D-medium 5H/4m or medium 5H/4S or 23-24 balanced
..........2H-no super-accept for hearts
................P-medium 5H/4m
...............2S-medium 4S/5H
...............2N-23-24 balanced
...............3m-5H/5m
...............3H-medium 6H
.....2H-6H, medium
.....2S-5S/4m, minimum
.....2N-21-22 bal, possible 4441
.....3C-GF 5M/5C
..........3D-relays
...............3H-hearts
...............3S-spades
.....3D-GI+ 5M/5M
.....3H-GF 5H/5D
.....3S-GF 5S/5D
0

#45 User is offline   straube 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 4,096
  • Joined: 2009-January-18
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Vancouver WA USA

Posted 2010-February-24, 19:55

1C-1S, 1N
.....2C-minors or diamonds
.....2D-4432 or 4333
.........2S-4H432
...............3C-4S
....................3H-4423
....................3S-4432
...............3D-4C
....................3S-2434
....................3N-3424
...............3H-2443
...............3S-3442
.........2N-4S
...............3D-4C
....................3S-4234
....................3N-4324
...............3H-4243
...............3S-4342
.........3C-4m/4m
..............3H-2344
..............3S-3244
.........3D-3334
.........3H-3343
.........3S-3433
.........3N-4333
.....2H-3-suited, not short clubs 12/13
..........2N-short spade
...............3D-1444
...............3H-0445
...............3S-0454
...............3N-0544
..........3C-short heart
...............3H-4144
...............3S-4045
...............3N-4054
...............4C-5044
..........3D-4414
..........3H-4405
..........3S-4504
..........3N-5404
............
.....2S-5M332 6/8
..........3C-5H332
...............3H-2533
...............3S-3523
...............3N-3532
..........3D-5233
..........3H-5323
..........3S-5332
.....2N-5C332
..........3D-2335
..........3H-3235
..........3S-3325
.....3C-5D332
...........3H-2335
...........3S-3235
...........3N-3325
.....3D-4441
.....3H-4450
.....3S-4540
.....3N-5440
0

#46 User is offline   rbforster 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 1,611
  • Joined: 2006-March-18

Posted 2010-February-24, 23:44

Having thought about some of your ideas, I think there's a combination that should work pretty well. In particular, it gives you an out at the 2 level and still separates the 1-suited majors from the M+m hands. Here's the short version for now, we can fill in the GF hands in lots of ways...

1-1 0-4

P min 5+H unbal
1S various hands, then 1N 3-4, 2C 0-2 p/c, etc
.........2C/P clubs min (4M ok)
.........2D diamonds min (4M ok)
.........2H spades min, or GF art
..............P spades min
..............2N+ various relays
.........2S 5S/4+m min
.........2N+ various GF's with minors
1N nat
2C majors
2D 1 major, inv+ or strong bal
2M 5M/4+m inv
2N strong bal
3C+ various GFs
0

#47 User is offline   straube 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 4,096
  • Joined: 2009-January-18
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Vancouver WA USA

Posted 2010-February-25, 00:13

Thanks. What I'm tempted to do is to make 1C-1H, 1S-1N(2C)-2H a GF relay that asks partner's complete pattern. Obviously this is for a monster hand because it would take 'til 4N to know partner's shape. It would be convenient though because the responses start exactly one level higher than norm so it would be easy to remember. Opener would have the knowledge of 0-2 vs 3-4, too. Also, one less relay structure to remember :)

1C-1H,

.....P-minimum 5H/4m or 5H332 or minimum 6H
.....1S-1N(3-4)/2C(0-2)/2D(0-2) with both majors/2M(0-2) with 6M
..........2C/P of 2C=to play
..........2D-to play
..........2H-GF, relays for responder's complete distribution
..........2S-medium spades or medium 5S/4m
..........2N-GF clubs, possible side
...............3C-waits
..........3C-GF diamonds, possible side
..........3D-GF H
..........3H-GF S
..........3S-GF m/m
...............3N-no fit
..........3N-to play
.....1N-good 16-20 balanced or 4441
.....2C-majors OR 20-21 balanced
..........2D-asks
...............2H-4S/5H or 5S/5H, minimum
....................2S-4 spades, 3-4
...............2S-5S/4H, minimum
...............2N-20-21 bal
...............3C-medium 5/4 or 4/5
...............3D-4S/6H, f
...............3H-6S/4H, f
..........2H-fit or 2-cd preference
...............2S-5S/4H, medium
..........2S-fit or 2-cd preference
.....2D-medium hearts or weak spades or 25+ balanced
..........2H-no super-accept for hearts
................P-medium hearts
...............2S-weak spades
...............2N-25+ balanced
..........2S-super-accept for hearts
...............P-weak, spades
.....2H-5H/4m, medium
.....2S-5S/4m, minimum
.....2N-23-24 bal, possible 4441
.....3C-GF 5M/5C
..........3D-relays
...............3H-hearts
...............3S-spades
.....3D-GI+ 5M/5M
.....3H-GF 5H/5D
.....3S-GF 5S/5D
0

#48 User is offline   Crunch3nt 

  • PipPipPip
  • Group: Full Members
  • Posts: 68
  • Joined: 2010-February-25
  • Gender:Male

Posted 2010-February-25, 04:21

Hi all. Only just found this forum. Sorry to be joining discussion Late. My preferred Big Club Responses are below:

I think 1D 8+ Any GF is wrong better to play 1D as 8+ Bal only

Objective - Unbalanced hand always shows shape. Weak hand becomes captain if opener is unbal only.

Unbalanced Hand = Singleton or void
Balanced = 4333, 4432, 5332, 6322, 5422, 7222

1D 8+ Bal (then 1H relay 1S+ Reverse Relay (Opener shows)
1H 0-5 any or 0-7 Bal or 6-7 unbal no major
1S 6+ HCP, 4+ H Unbal (poss canape minor) or 3 Suiter Short S
1NT 6+ HCP Both Majors 4/5 or 5/4 or 3 Suiter Short Minor Unbal
2C 6+ 5+S Unbal (S&Minor or Single Suited (SS))
2D 8+ C or C&S or C&D Unbal
2H 8+ 5+/5+ Minors or 3 Suiter Short H
2S 8+ 5+D & 4C Unbal
2NT 8+ 5+D & 4S Unbal
3C 8+ SS Clubs HS
3D 8+ SS Clubs MS
3H 8+ 3316
3S 8+ 2317
3NT 8+ 3307 or 3217

Outcomes:
1) 1D Bal response - all responder bal shapes come out by 3H (64.3% of Hands), If opener is bal as well then strong hand relays
2) Major shapes come out very efficiently (3C=5431, 3D=6421, 3C=6331 etc)
3) No major shapes not very efficient but deliberate trade-off
4) Over semi-pos major, opener can relay or show min support, or bid nat NF
5) Because Bal and major shapes are so efficient, can sort out strength at end of relay or can R+1 earlier if wish.
0

#49 User is offline   straube 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 4,096
  • Joined: 2009-January-18
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Vancouver WA USA

Posted 2010-February-25, 08:53

Why go to the trouble of restricting 1D to 8+ balanced and then let opener relay with 1H? You should have opener reverse relay starting with 1H...not 1S. You're crossed-purposes.

You'll have horrible auctions after 1C-1H. I have difficulty after 1C-1H (0-4) but you're responding range is so much wider.

I would think that your 1C-1H is more frequent than your 1C-1D sequence which makes me think that something is wrong here.
0

#50 User is offline   Crunch3nt 

  • PipPipPip
  • Group: Full Members
  • Posts: 68
  • Joined: 2010-February-25
  • Gender:Male

Posted 2010-February-25, 17:53

You definitely should not have the strong hand have to show via reverse relay with a balanced hand - that is terrible. Much better for strong balanced hand to ask than to show. (64% of the time) We only reverse relay when opener is unbalanced so 1S+ has plenty of room.

1D balanced is better for handling 4th hand interference as well.

Over 1C-1H, we just play natural - natural isn't that bad you know - not as hood as relay, but not terrible :-)
0

#51 User is offline   Crunch3nt 

  • PipPipPip
  • Group: Full Members
  • Posts: 68
  • Joined: 2010-February-25
  • Gender:Male

Posted 2010-February-25, 17:54

hood = good
0

#52 User is offline   awm 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 8,656
  • Joined: 2005-February-09
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Zurich, Switzerland

Posted 2010-February-26, 00:06

It seems like your current scheme does fine over 1-1. However, this particular unobstructed sequence is not very common, as opponents like to bid over 1 especially when they have some values. I would be more concerned with the other sequences.

One observation is that compared to "regular" relay-style responses with 1 negative and others GF, you are losing one step on the positive hands and effectively gaining one step on the semi-positives. There are a number of disadvantages to such an approach, in particular:

(1) Relays help you most on hands in the slam range, and these will be a lot more common when responder has a game force.

(2) The range of strength is much wider for the positive response (8+ instead of 5-7), and after you resolve shape you will need to resolve strength and honor location, which means you actually need a lot more space after the positive response than on the semi-positive auction.

(3) After a positive response, you will (almost) always relay, whereas after the semi-positive you will fairly often not have a game force and break relays. This means that regardless of the frequency of response, the frequency of relay auctions will be higher opposite the positives.
Adam W. Meyerson
a.k.a. Appeal Without Merit
0

#53 User is offline   the hog 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 10,728
  • Joined: 2003-March-07
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Laos
  • Interests:Wagner and Bridge

Posted 2010-February-26, 00:10

Crunch3nt, on Feb 26 2010, 06:53 AM, said:

You definitely should not have the strong hand have to show via reverse relay with a balanced hand - that is terrible. Much better for strong balanced hand to ask than to show. (64% of the time) We only reverse relay when opener is unbalanced so 1S+ has plenty of room.

1D balanced is better for handling 4th hand interference as well.

Over 1C-1H, we just play natural - natural isn't that bad you know - not as hood as relay, but not terrible :-)

This totally defeats the purpose of the system. I think these responses are very poor - sorry!
"The King of Hearts a broadsword bears, the Queen of Hearts a rose." W. H. Auden.
0

#54 User is offline   straube 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 4,096
  • Joined: 2009-January-18
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Vancouver WA USA

Posted 2010-February-26, 01:35

awm, on Feb 26 2010, 01:06 AM, said:

It seems like your current scheme does fine over 1-1. However, this particular unobstructed sequence is not very common, as opponents like to bid over 1 especially when they have some values. I would be more concerned with the other sequences.

One observation is that compared to "regular" relay-style responses with 1 negative and others GF, you are losing one step on the positive hands and effectively gaining one step on the semi-positives. There are a number of disadvantages to such an approach, in particular:

(1) Relays help you most on hands in the slam range, and these will be a lot more common when responder has a game force.

(2) The range of strength is much wider for the positive response (8+ instead of 5-7), and after you resolve shape you will need to resolve strength and honor location, which means you actually need a lot more space after the positive response than on the semi-positive auction.

(3) After a positive response, you will (almost) always relay, whereas after the semi-positive you will fairly often not have a game force and break relays. This means that regardless of the frequency of response, the frequency of relay auctions will be higher opposite the positives.

Thanks. I think these are all good observations. It sounds like you think positives are a stronger approach than semipositives and I'm inclined to agree, but I lack the experience of actually using these systems to know just how often RHO jams the auction. Which do you think is a stronger semipositive structure?

1C-1D semipositives
1C-1H-negative
1C-1S+positives

or

1C-1D GF
1C-1H semipositive
1C-1S-neg
1C-1N+ semipositives
0

#55 User is offline   straube 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 4,096
  • Joined: 2009-January-18
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Vancouver WA USA

Posted 2010-February-26, 02:16

Crunch3nt, on Feb 25 2010, 06:53 PM, said:

You definitely should not have the strong hand have to show via reverse relay with a balanced hand - that is terrible. Much better for strong balanced hand to ask than to show. (64% of the time) We only reverse relay when opener is unbalanced so 1S+ has plenty of room.

1D balanced is better for handling 4th hand interference as well.

Over 1C-1H, we just play natural - natural isn't that bad you know - not as hood as relay, but not terrible :-)

I agree with you that ideally you want the strong balanced hand to relay the weaker unbalanced hand. But look at what happens with your structure...

1C-1D 8+ balanced
..........1H-balanced? possibly huge unbalanced?

So at this point you have way too much room. If it were right to have 1C-1D be 8+ balanced, then you ought to have opener go straight to 1N to now relay for responder's balanced shape.

1C-1D 8+
..........1N-I'm balanced, too.
...............2C-no major
...............2D-four hearts
...............etc.

You could then use 1C-1D, 1H and 1C-1D, 1S to relay out unbalanced hands.

You should do a frequency distribution for your responses to 1C. I'm guessing they're something like
1D-25% (including all 5332s)
1H-50%
other-25%

If that's about right, then you have difficulty sorting out the 1C-1H auctions (even those who play 1C-1D neg feel like they haven't enough room)
0

#56 User is offline   awm 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 8,656
  • Joined: 2005-February-09
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Zurich, Switzerland

Posted 2010-February-26, 12:38

straube, on Feb 26 2010, 02:35 AM, said:

Which do you think is a stronger semipositive structure?

1C-1D semipositives
1C-1H-negative
1C-1S+positives

or

1C-1D GF
1C-1H semipositive
1C-1S-neg
1C-1N+ semipositives

Both of these structures are going to lose a step on the GF hands when compared to direct positives. This is fairly substantial for a relay system. I suppose you could say I don't like either of them.

If you constrain your structures such that the first response must always clarify completely between GF, semi-positive, or negative you are probably losing out. The negative hands are very infrequent, so you don't really want to devote a cheap bid solely to them, but if you make them bid 1 (or higher) your auctions over the negative are going to be quite bad. You also seem to be losing a step on the positive hands, which is really where you least want to lose any steps, but if you have two entire bids devoted to negatives and semi-positives respectively it seems tough to avoid this issue.

Given the constraints, maybe the following is okay:

1 = some varieties of GF hand
1 = semi-positives
1 = negative
1N+ = other varieties of GF hand

This mirrors the relay auctions that "regular relay precision" sees on the GF and semi-positive hands. It has the advantage of showing the semi-positives directly. The only issue is that the negative bid is quite high. Potentially it might be better to reverse 1 and 1 and likely just bid naturally over the 1-1 auction.
Adam W. Meyerson
a.k.a. Appeal Without Merit
0

#57 User is offline   straube 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 4,096
  • Joined: 2009-January-18
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Vancouver WA USA

Posted 2010-February-26, 15:20

awm said:

If you constrain your structures such that the first response must always clarify completely between GF, semi-positive, or negative you are probably losing out. The negative hands are very infrequent, so you don't really want to devote a cheap bid solely to them, but if you make them bid 1♠ (or higher) your auctions over the negative are going to be quite bad. You also seem to be losing a step on the positive hands, which is really where you least want to lose any steps, but if you have two entire bids devoted to negatives and semi-positives respectively it seems tough to avoid this issue.


Thanks for replying. I've reason to believe that the 0-4 hcp hands are on the order of 20% of the responding hands to 1C. One reason is that the bridge encyclopedia gives the odds of a random 13 cards having 0-4 pts as about 9%. Given the restriction that one hand holds 15+, the odds increase. Also, Atul and I looked at about 100 hands and the 0-4 pt hand came up something like 30% of the time. Obviously that's a small sample size, but I'm still thinking that 0-4 will be about 20%.

That's really my argument for 1C-1H as negative. Should I destroy 20% of the auctions for my 1C (granted that these are my least important 20%)? I'm still not sure.

But I think I agree with you in liking positives better.
0

#58 User is offline   Cascade 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Yellows
  • Posts: 6,772
  • Joined: 2003-July-22
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:New Zealand
  • Interests:Juggling, Unicycling

Posted 2010-February-26, 15:46

This is the probability distribution for partner's hcp when one has 16+ hcp. These are calculated not simulated numbers.

HCP  Frequency Cumulative Frequency
0  0.011278423	0.011278423
1  0.022437932	0.033716354
2  0.035111572	0.068827926
3  0.057458297	0.126286223
4  0.079893517	0.206179741
5  0.095820436	0.302000176
6  0.106745124	0.4087453
7  0.113519677	0.522264977
8  0.108287574	0.630552551
9  0.097191705	0.727744256
10	0.082147609	0.809891865
11	0.064446102	0.874337967
12	0.047177531	0.921515498
13	0.032479894	0.953995391
14	0.020831806	0.974827197
15	0.012312506	0.987139703
16	0.006815111	0.993954813
17	0.003453122	0.997407936
18	0.001585893	0.998993829
19	0.000661892	0.999655721
20	0.000244125	0.999899846
21	7.60921E-05	0.999975938
22	1.99367E-05	0.999995875
23	3.80347E-06	0.999999679
24	3.21456E-07	1


Edit whoops I see you were discussing 15+ here are those numbers :

         15+ High Card Point    16+ High Card Point
HCP  Frequency Cumulative  Frequency   Cumulative
0  0.009913845	0.009913845	0.011278423	0.011278423
1  0.019908795	0.029822641	0.022437932	0.033716354
2  0.031543206	0.061365847	0.035111572	0.068827926
3  0.05236386  0.113729707	0.057458297	0.126286223
4  0.074091549	0.187821257	0.079893517	0.206179741
5  0.090315037	0.278136294	0.095820436	0.302000176
6  0.102319641	0.380455935	0.106745124	0.4087453
7  0.111031509	0.491487444	0.113519677	0.522264977
8  0.108158696	0.599646139	0.108287574	0.630552551
9  0.09919026  0.698836399	0.097191705	0.727744256
10	0.085838681	0.784675081	0.082147609	0.809891865
11	0.06920557  0.85388065  0.064446102	0.874337967
12	0.052102707	0.905983357	0.047177531	0.921515498
13	0.036981008	0.942964365	0.032479894	0.953995391
14	0.024597434	0.967561799	0.020831806	0.974827197
15	0.015117002	0.982678801	0.012312506	0.987139703
16	0.008737102	0.991415902	0.006815111	0.993954813
17	0.004663517	0.996079419	0.003453122	0.997407936
18	0.002283219	0.998362638	0.001585893	0.998993829
19	0.001020425	0.999383063	0.000661892	0.999655721
20	0.000411865	0.999794928	0.000244125	0.999899846
21	0.000147212	0.99994214  7.60921E-05	0.999975938
22	4.43933E-05	0.999986533	1.99367E-05	0.999995875
23	1.12441E-05	0.999997777	3.80347E-06	0.999999679
24	2.05648E-06	0.999999834	3.21456E-07	1
25	1.66028E-07	1           0           1

Wayne Burrows

I believe that the USA currently hold only the World Championship For People Who Still Bid Like Your Auntie Gladys - dburn
dunno how to play 4 card majors - JLOGIC
True but I know Standard American and what better reason could I have for playing Precision? - Hideous Hog
Bidding is an estimation of probabilities SJ Simon

#59 User is offline   straube 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 4,096
  • Joined: 2009-January-18
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Vancouver WA USA

Posted 2010-February-26, 19:14

Cascade, on Feb 26 2010, 04:46 PM, said:

This is the probability distribution for partner's hcp when one has 16+ hcp.  These are calculated not simulated numbers.

HCP  Frequency Cumulative Frequency
0  0.011278423	0.011278423
1  0.022437932	0.033716354
2  0.035111572	0.068827926
3  0.057458297	0.126286223
4  0.079893517	0.206179741
5  0.095820436	0.302000176
6  0.106745124	0.4087453
7  0.113519677	0.522264977
8  0.108287574	0.630552551
9  0.097191705	0.727744256
10	0.082147609	0.809891865
11	0.064446102	0.874337967
12	0.047177531	0.921515498
13	0.032479894	0.953995391
14	0.020831806	0.974827197
15	0.012312506	0.987139703
16	0.006815111	0.993954813
17	0.003453122	0.997407936
18	0.001585893	0.998993829
19	0.000661892	0.999655721
20	0.000244125	0.999899846
21	7.60921E-05	0.999975938
22	1.99367E-05	0.999995875
23	3.80347E-06	0.999999679
24	3.21456E-07	1


Edit whoops I see you were discussing 15+ here are those numbers :

         15+ High Card Point    16+ High Card Point
HCP  Frequency Cumulative  Frequency   Cumulative
0  0.009913845	0.009913845	0.011278423	0.011278423
1  0.019908795	0.029822641	0.022437932	0.033716354
2  0.031543206	0.061365847	0.035111572	0.068827926
3  0.05236386  0.113729707	0.057458297	0.126286223
4  0.074091549	0.187821257	0.079893517	0.206179741
5  0.090315037	0.278136294	0.095820436	0.302000176
6  0.102319641	0.380455935	0.106745124	0.4087453
7  0.111031509	0.491487444	0.113519677	0.522264977
8  0.108158696	0.599646139	0.108287574	0.630552551
9  0.09919026  0.698836399	0.097191705	0.727744256
10	0.085838681	0.784675081	0.082147609	0.809891865
11	0.06920557  0.85388065  0.064446102	0.874337967
12	0.052102707	0.905983357	0.047177531	0.921515498
13	0.036981008	0.942964365	0.032479894	0.953995391
14	0.024597434	0.967561799	0.020831806	0.974827197
15	0.015117002	0.982678801	0.012312506	0.987139703
16	0.008737102	0.991415902	0.006815111	0.993954813
17	0.004663517	0.996079419	0.003453122	0.997407936
18	0.002283219	0.998362638	0.001585893	0.998993829
19	0.001020425	0.999383063	0.000661892	0.999655721
20	0.000411865	0.999794928	0.000244125	0.999899846
21	0.000147212	0.99994214  7.60921E-05	0.999975938
22	4.43933E-05	0.999986533	1.99367E-05	0.999995875
23	1.12441E-05	0.999997777	3.80347E-06	0.999999679
24	2.05648E-06	0.999999834	3.21456E-07	1
25	1.66028E-07	1           0           1

Thanks lots. So if my club is 15+ unbalanced and 16+ balanced, then about 19% are double negative.

So 1C-1D = 32% of hands
and 1C-1H= 19% of hands
and 1C-1S+=49% of hands

I guess then that a positive relay system would be

1C-1D=51%
1C-1H+=49%

but if I were to tweak mine a little so that 8pt balanced hands responded 1D, then it would change to...

1C-1D= 38%
1C-1H= 19%
1C-1S+=43%

which I think I like better. I see what awm means, however. If LHO passes, then that changes the frequencies of responder's responses. For example, after LHO passes, responder is likely to have a better hand, so 1C-1H should not be as frequent as 19%.
0

#60 User is offline   awm 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 8,656
  • Joined: 2005-February-09
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Zurich, Switzerland

Posted 2010-February-26, 20:00

There's also the argument that it's not just frequency but importance.

The 0-4 hands are usually partscore deals, so there are not so many IMPs to be won or lost.

The GF hands are quite often game/slam decisions, so there are a very large number of IMPs riding on those hands.
Adam W. Meyerson
a.k.a. Appeal Without Merit
0

  • 5 Pages +
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • You cannot start a new topic
  • You cannot reply to this topic

3 User(s) are reading this topic
0 members, 3 guests, 0 anonymous users