barmar, on Oct 28 2009, 12:49 PM, said:
If East's explanation were correct, and East had given that explanation to South, South could have made a Lightner double to get the killing lead. If West's explanation were correct, and East had given that explanation to North, North could have figured out the killing lead on his own, as Sourth expected him to. So either way, there was damage.
Correct, but the adjustment would still be different since in one case south doubles but in the other he doesn't. Either way I would adjust 100% of the score to 6
♠-2, doubled or not depending on the actual agreement, since either occurence seems extremely likely to me.
If E/W either can't prove or don't know which explanation is correct, I assume whichever leads the adjustment to 6
♠ being doubled since the non-offenders deserve the benefit of the doubt.
Edit: Actually on rethinking, if I adjust to the auction where south doubles then N/S get 100% of 6
♠X-2. But if it's to the auction where south doesn't double, then having thought about it I'm much less convinced now than when I let on that north would lead a heart. It's extremely possible east has ATxxx and west has Qx or something, and E/W might be going down anyway on the bad break. So in that case I might make it more like 60% 6
♠ making and 40% 6
♠ down 2.
Please let me know about any questions or interest or bug reports about GIB.