[OleBerg]

kenrexford, on Oct 22 2009, 11:39 PM, said:

Let's try an average, boring hand.

Everyone here apparently doubles a lot with 16-counts despite being balanced if the hand has 4432 shape with two clubs. So, partner likely has 4342 with a doubleton in one of the red suits. Maybe only three spades, but still a probable ruffing value on the short side.

So, maybe ♠AQxx ♥AQxx ♦xx ♣Kxx?

Opposite that hand, I expect to lose one club, one diamond. I'll probably have no problem ditching a low heart on the club King. So, I need to hold AQAQ in the majors to one loser, with our strength over theirs, meaning making finesses.

The entries pausity is illusory. I have the diamond Ace. That's enough to lead a club toward, with a probable return back by a club ruff (maybe the needed course), or to finesse a spade and then return in spades (when partner has four).

So, I'll go.

Not sure what partner's 3♥ or 3♦ options might have meant, though, and how this affects things.

The tricks, then, will be six spades, two hearts, one club, one diamond, one diamond ruff, for 11, minus one somewhere, for 10.

A first for me:

I completely agree with Ken.

[pooltuna]

Jlall, on Oct 22 2009, 04:09 PM, said:

None vul imps:

T9xxxx
xxx
Axx
J

Starting with you:

P 1C 1N p
2H 3C 3S p
?

4♠....is obv?

[pooltuna]

ArtK78, on Oct 22 2009, 04:19 PM, said:

Pass seems clear.



Seriously, where are 10 tricks coming from? Partner clearly has a lot of values in the black suits. That probably means there are a lot of losers in the red suits.

I am not saying that it won't make 10 tricks. But I think it is anti-percentage. And we are not vul.

what would you bid if partner had opened 1♠ as for %age you would need a simul to convince me altho it is probably close.

[pooltuna]

Fluffy, on Oct 22 2009, 05:34 PM, said:

game is hopeless, partscore you can still make it

if it is hopeless then you will gladly giver me 3 to 1 odds for a $100/hand for say 100 hands?

KQJx
AQxx
xx
Axx

T9xxxx
xxx
Axx
J

Do you really think with the opener in front of the NT overcaller that the ♥ finesse is really 50%

[dake50]

You mean partner volunteered 3S instead of pass AND this hand won't go game? What am I missing? Someone thinks this is not 47+% to make? Really??

[bid_em_up]

fwiw,

It was Cable, a member of the opposing team, who the reporter says showed "irrational exubarance" when they bid 4S. So the report of this particular hand was "harsh" towards the other team, if anybody.

North's Hand

---

North has nothing remotely resembling a 3S bid, imo. I would expect a better hand than some 3-4-3-3 minimum with only one tenace and no combination of honors anywhere (other than AQ in trumps). If you play a style where North can bid 3S freely on this holding, then there is some validity in thinking that South was being overly optimistic on the board.

Lastly, after the opening lead of the club 10 (which was certainly reasonable given the auction), it would take exceptional defense (and somewhat abnormal, imo) to be able to beat the game on the lie of the cards.

With all of that being said, I really didn't see where the guy was overly critical of either side. As with any journalist, you can tell that his own "flavor" is injected in the commentary, and he doesn't appear to be any worse than the average BBO Vugraph commentator. He pointed out what he thought were good plays, and what he thought were bad plays. His analysis obviously isn't perfect either.

I think once North bids 3S, that 4S is absolutely clear, but as I said, I really do not believe that North should bid 3S. And I doubt that many of you will disagree with that sentiment.

jmoo

[Jlall]

bid_em_up, on Oct 23 2009, 01:41 PM, said:

It was Cable, a member of the opposing team, who the reporter says showed "irrational exubarance" when they bid 4S. So the report of this particular hand was "harsh" towards the other team, if anybody.

Why is this relevant? As usual I carefully worded my statement that barmar thought this article was harsh towards the PLAYERS not towards just them.

I agree with you that if you're gonna go off about one of the bids in this auction it is partners 3S bid though lol.

[bid_em_up]

Jlall, on Oct 23 2009, 03:18 PM, said:

bid_em_up, on Oct 23 2009, 01:41 PM, said:

It was Cable, a member of the opposing team, who the reporter says  showed "irrational exubarance" when they bid 4S. So the report of this particular hand was "harsh" towards the other team, if anybody.

Why is this relevant? As usual I carefully worded my statement that barmar thought this article was harsh towards the PLAYERS not towards just them.

I agree with you that if you're gonna go off about one of the bids in this auction it is partners 3S bid though lol.

And notice, I didn't quote your "carefully worded statement" either. I put that there because it appeared to me that several posters think that it was barmar or someone on his team who bid 4S and that reporter was being critical of them. I was simply clarifying who it was that made the bid and who the "irrational exubarance" comment was referring to. You may not think that has any relevance, and maybe it doesn't, but I thought that it did.

[junyi_zhu]

Jlall, on Oct 22 2009, 09:09 PM, said:

None vul imps:

T9xxxx
xxx
Axx
J

Starting with you:

P 1C 1N p
2H 3C 3S p
?

It's clear to bid 4S with a rational partner. However, I have seen a lot of players bidding 3S with 3 spades and mediocre hands(or even some pretty good hands, but not good enough for a super accept type auction). So if you know your partner likes overbidding, it's OK to pass.

[junyi_zhu]

Jlall, on Oct 22 2009, 10:39 PM, said:

Fluffy, on Oct 22 2009, 05:34 PM, said:

game is hopeless, partscore you can still make  it

What are you talking about? You lose 1 diamond and 1 spade and if the heart hook is on you lose 1 heart. So you are on a finesse through the opening bidder.

Anyways I posted this because I read it in a match report of a flight B GNT match involving hrothgar and barmar. Barmar thought the author was harsh towards the players, so I read the whole writeup. He described bidding 4S on these cards irrationally exuberant lol. I thought it was a good bid.

Well, sometimes one can improve his bidding more if he doesn't read those reports at all...