5D or 3NT?
#2
Posted 2009-September-06, 04:51
George Carlin
#4
Posted 2009-September-06, 06:47
cnszsun, on Sep 6 2009, 05:33 AM, said:
2♦-ps-2N-ps
3♦-ps-??
2♦=weak 2
3♦=min,no short suit
5♦; You have 11 tricks in 6♦, 3♥, & 2♣. Partner is a favorite to have only 2♠ as 2362 and 2263 combined should be more probable than 3262. Perhaps my view is colored by my expectation after 2NT that he has no outside K or A so I do not expect Jxx Qx JT9xxx Qx or similar.
the Freman, Chani from the move "Dune"
"I learned long ago, never to wrestle with a pig. You get dirty, and besides, the pig likes it."
George Bernard Shaw
#5
Posted 2009-September-06, 15:00
#6
Posted 2009-September-07, 00:11
#7
Posted 2009-September-07, 01:48
peachy, on Sep 7 2009, 08:11 AM, said:
Why do we expect spades to be 4-4?
#8
Posted 2009-September-08, 08:16
gwnn, on Sep 6 2009, 05:51 AM, said:
pooltuna, on Sep 6 2009, 07:47 AM, said:
Bende, on Sep 7 2009, 02:48 AM, said:
peachy, on Sep 7 2009, 08:11 AM, said:
Why do we expect spades to be 4-4?
Wishful thinking?
I think this is the wrong way to approach the problem. If spades are 4-4, 5D will make whenever 3N does, for the same score at IMP's, so our concern really should be what happens when spades are not 4-4. Ok, if diamonds are 4-0, and partner has the club Q and the diamond Ace, we would have 9 tricks in NT and 5D will go down, however, this is too specific to worry about, imo.
If a spade is not led (against either contract), both 3N and 5D will again likely make, regardless of how spades break, so this isn't a consideration either.
However, 5D gains when partner holds two small spades, spades are not 4-4 and a spade IS led.
This leads me to choose 5D over 3N.
jmoo.
So many experts, not enough X cards.
#9
Posted 2009-September-08, 13:04
#10
Posted 2009-September-08, 13:20
Jlall, on Sep 8 2009, 02:04 PM, said:
Yeah, but a doubleton spade seems just so much more likely than three of them.
#11
Posted 2009-September-08, 13:31
cherdanno, on Sep 8 2009, 02:20 PM, said:
Jlall, on Sep 8 2009, 02:04 PM, said:
Yeah, but a doubleton spade seems just so much more likely than three of them.
Agreed, not saying I would bid 3N, I just thought it was LOL that the discussion about bidding 3N vs 5D all assumed partner had a doubleton spade.
I think bidding 3S would be kind of sexy to deflect the spade lead against 5D though.
#12
Posted 2009-September-08, 20:32
#13
Posted 2009-September-09, 00:46
Jlall, on Sep 8 2009, 08:31 PM, said:
3♠ is natural here, isn't it? If partner raises and you go back to 5♦, everyone will know 3♠ was a psyche. And if he doesn't raise you don't mind a spade lead anyway.

Help

2♦-ps-2N-ps
3♦-ps-??
2♦=weak 2
3♦=min,no short suit