[the hog]

6H. Imps. Weakish opposition, no opposition bidding.
Suggestions?

AKQ
9873
Qxx
Axx

x
AQ42
AKx
KJTxx

2 of D lead.
My line was to win in hand and cash A of H. rho plays the 5, lho drops the J. Cross to dummy with a S and play 9 of Hs, rho smoothly plays the 6, no twitches.

1) Do you agree with the line so far?
2) Now what?


Ron

[Flame]

I think playing runing the 9 at trick two is better then your line.
When you played the A and the J drops, if you believe this isnt a false card then it can be from J10 or KJ or J, now there is the question of restricted choice which say holding the KJ and J LHO is twice as much likely to play the J then from J10, however having sgl , meaning the suit is 4-1 is less likely then to have the suit 3-2.
running the 9 will win against J and KJ , playing the Q will win against J10, bidding might be importent here, the lead is importent too, if they lead 4th best this mean, west only have 4 diamonds and if only 1 hearts that leave him with 8 cards in the other suits, which give him both a choice of lead , and sometimes also a bid.
to sum it up there are 3 more or less independent factors here
restricted choice of the suit give us 80% to play small.
the suit distribution give us something like 66% for the Q.
the restricted choice about the lead(depends on our bidding too) give it about 75% for the Q.
I would go for the the Q.

[uday]

It appears that if you play the HQ and it lives, with LHO following, you can avoid the club guess by stripping spades and diamonds, then exiting with a trump. So I'd be inclined to try that. It also fits with the original plan of HA, H to Q ( at least, i think that was the original plan), ignoring whatever RHO was up to with the HJ.

Does this change because the opponents are weak? Maybe a weak opponent is not up to parting with the HJ on the first trick. But maybe this one has read a book on deceptive play lately, and I would hate to fall for something like that. Presumably my teammates at the other table would not do this from JTx , so I am not risking much.

Is this the right play in the H suit ?

Running the 9 picks up JTx onside ( not stiff K offside, look at RHOs JT6x) but makes you guess clubs later.

Cashing the A picks up stiff K offside and makes you guess clubs later.

An immediate H finesse avoids the clubs guess if the HK is onside and hearts are 32 ( maybe you can pick up some stiff HK onside if LHO has the right shape and RHO is not up to playing the K from Kx or KJx)

So I think the correct play in the H suit is a simple finesse

[Flame]

uday, on Jun 6 2004, 12:16 AM, said:

So I think the correct play in the H suit is a simple finesse

I think you are right.

[NotButter]

Hideous,

I'm not sure what the book line is to play this suit but my gut feel says run the nine then enter dummy and cover RHO's card.

Perhaps someone with more patience than me can do the math.

NotButter.

[paulg]

I recommend that you get SuitPlay for these analyses (http://home.planet.n...cis45/SuitPlay/) as it's easier to find than the book!

The best line is to run the ♥9 at trick 1 - this has a 49% chance of making 3 tricks.

Cheers

Paul

[Fluffy]

cardsharp, on Jun 6 2004, 08:43 AM, said:

I recommend that you get SuitPlay for these analyses (http://home.planet.n...cis45/SuitPlay/) as it's easier to find than the book!

The best line is to run the ♥9 at trick 1 - this has a 49% chance of making 3 tricks.

Cheers

Paul

This is not a single suit problem.

That program suggest 49% line to take 3 tricks on the suit by playing ♥A and later running the 9 when ♥J or ♥10 drops, not by running the ♥9 on first trick.

Wonder if the program knows about restricted choice, but I think no because it didn´t change its % after a honnor droping.

I like the first round finese & later endplay is the best line combined play, jsut requires 50% of 3-2, about 1/3 of success.

Playing ♥A improves your chances of the suit, but now you have a great problem, in theory it is best to play low hoping for the 10 to be in east hands, but restricted choice´s % change playign against weak opponents, they tend to play highest honnor from a secuence because they think it is the smartest play.

In theory playing low wins when K second offside, and K 4th onside, wich is 2 full cases against 50% of 1: J10 bare (in wich west thorically would put wither J or 10), but playing for J10 bare duplicates your chances as it gets rid of Club finese (unless ♣Q is singleton). That still gives a 2/1 for playing low ♥.

On practice weak players will play ♥J from bare ♥J10 many times... but also east will raise with ♥K (both 3rd and 4th) sometimes... all in all I think playing low is still best %, , combined with a boomerang finese in ♣

[paulg]

Fluffy, on Jun 6 2004, 12:14 PM, said:

This is not a single suit problem.

That program suggest 49% line to take 3 tricks on the suit by playing ♥A and later running the 9 when ♥J or ♥10 drops, not by running the ♥9 on first trick.

So I have no idea what changed to make it play the ♥A first, but I can only reproduce your line of cashing the ♥A first - apologies to all.

Quote

Wonder if the program knows about restricted choice, but I think no because it didn´t change its % after a honnor droping.

The program does not care about restricted choice as it precisely computes the odds of every holding. However this results in the same lines as restricted choice would imply - test the classic Axxx KT9xxx!

In this case I think the best line is to cash the ♥A, eliminate the pointed suits and then run the ♥9. If this loses to the doubleton ♥K then I am home.

[luke warm]

i think i'd play it like uday, ♥Q then the A, strip diamonds then spades, throwing 2 clubs, and exit with a heart

[1eyedjack]

uday, on Jun 6 2004, 12:16 AM, said:

Presumably my teammates at the other table would not do this from JTx , so I am not risking much.

Whilst it might be cool to drop the J from JTx that is one combination that we can eliminate from the possibilities once RHO has followed low to the second round.

I would not read too much into the quality of opponents. Poor opponents are capable of following at random from JT doubleton (perhaps marginally more likely to play a "clever" J, but not 12 times more likely, which I think from recollection is the required frequency to justify taking notice of it). Poor opponents and good opponents alike would I think also routinely follow low from the K on the second round.

I agree with a first round finesse of Q. Having started with the Ace I think I would run the 9. You are now committed to a guess in Clubs (albeit possibly better than 50%). LHO started with KJ doubleton or J singleton or half of a JT doubleton and I would just go with the odds now.

[flytoox]

I think you should play h9 in the second trick. As you mentioned opp r weak, then if he didnt cover with h ten or jack, then you can assume he doesnt have it. if rho play small, play h a, then go back to dummy and play another h, in the case lho played hj in 2nd round, i would play small in 4th round.


Hongjun

[Free]

Yes, awful play imo to cash the A. Let the 9 run at trick 2, don't try to cover 4-1 trump split, because you'll need to find ♣Q as well...

♥Q, they learned how to falsecard and LHO has J10.

[the hog]

lho actually held JT of H, so the correct play in my line is to rise Q of H. Now as Uday pointed out, the hand is easy, you can strip the hand and enplay rho in trumps to lead a C or give you a ruff and sluff.

Just wondered what the best line in the H suit is. The other consideration is that because you are playing weak opps, would rho rise with the K from Kxx when you pull the second trump from dummy after you cash the A first? How much consideration do you give to this?

Ron

[Free]

I think you really NEED a 3-2 trump split for as much safety as possible. Otherwise it's just an awful slam and you'll have to guess a lot. So just finesse. Question is how...

Playing low to the Q is a losing line in any case where lho has the K, while running the 9 wins in a lot more cases (I think), and can even cover 4-1 splits (4 card in rho - lho you can't stop anyway). I think running the 9 has some chance, but the endplay won't work and you'll need to find ♣Q...

Against good defense your line shouldn't work either. They will come up with the K and let you guess the ♣s, not the ♥s. Against weak opposition it might work, that's proven.

All by all, I think running the 9 is not the best option, because if lho didn't take with the K you're screwed again: will you take the Ace or the Queen next time? Perhaps your line isn't that awfull in the end, but we need ♥K onside or Kx with lho.

I guess a simple finesse works best, and an endplay is always available with 3-2 split and K onside, unless they play their high ♥s in case you won't lose a ♥ trick and you might make an extra trick if you find the ♣Q .

Now, lets see what our little program tells us - checking if my logic is right:
3 tricks: play the Ace (49.1739% chance of succes)
2 tricks: play the Ace (92.3913% chance of succes)
max & imp-best: play the Ace (gives us 2.4157 tricks)
Seems like I'm wrong, and you've found the percentage play. However, still need to make a second decision, which might fail bigtime. The program doesn't count mistakes in 2nd trick, and doesn't care about the ♣s as well.

My conclusion: if you want to play with the highest certainty to actually make this slam, I think you should go for a simple finesse in ♥ (play low to the Q), play ♥A, strip ♦ and ♠ and endplay someone in ♥. Otherwise you need some luck in deciding what cards to play in ♥s AND you need to find ♣Q...

[Fluffy]

cardsharp, on Jun 6 2004, 12:33 PM, said:

In this case I think the best line is to cash the ♥A, eliminate the pointed suits and then run the ♥9. If this loses to the doubleton ♥K then I am home.

You will be doomed on the likelly ♦5-2 split, people don´t use to lead from XXX when a ♠XXXX is avaible.

Quote

i think i'd play it like uday, ♥Q then the A, strip diamonds then spades, throwing 2 clubs, and exit with a heart

For the endplay you better start with ♠ than ♦, if third ♦ gets ruffed a ♠ wil come back, and the endplay is gone, but if ♠ are cleared first, there is no scape after ruffing.

[Dwayne]

Hog,

there was a similar hand in this year's SWPT.
Round 11, Bd 12.

Trumps were AQ83 opposite T962.

I fluked the play for one loser but ran into Tim at an Indian restaurant later that night and, quick as a flash, the maestro said cashing the Ace is best.

Different pips, different hand, sure, but nothing like 60 years of daily bridge to drum those suit combinations in.

Dee-Wayne.

[the hog]

Pity I can't play the rest of my hands as well as Tim.
(Wayne is referring to Tim Seres for the uninitiated.)