[kgr]

Play for 5 tricks with enough entries:
AJTxxx
vs
xxx

I East has:
KQx
KQxx
..then never 5 tricks, so not included in comparison

1)
finesse twice looses 2 tricks if E has:
KQ

2)
A followed by J looses if W has:
KQx
KQxx

KQ with E versus KQx or KQxx with W => 1 is better

3)
1 finesse followed by A looses if E has:
K
Q

KQ with E versus K or Q single with E. => 1 is better

=> With suitplay (I would be surprised if I calcuated this correctly):
1) 76% for 5 tricks
2) 66% for 5 tricks
3) 72% for 5 tricks

...And now the question:
Is 72% coorect for 3? I think it is a priori correct, but is it still correct after first finesse looses to West? Or is this lower then 72% because of restricted choice?

[pooltuna]

West East 2FIN 1FIN 0FIN
KQ32 - 5 5 4
KQ3 2 5 5 4
KQ2 3 5 5 4
K32 Q 5 4 5
Q32 K 5 4 5
KQ 32 5 5 5
K3 Q2 5 5 5
K2 Q3 5 5 5
Q3 K2 5 5 5
Q2 K3 5 5 5
32 KQ 4 5 5
2 KQ3 4 4 4
3 KQ2 4 4 4
Q K32 5 5 5
K Q32 5 5 5
- KQ32 4 4 4

As the chart shows taking 2 finesses is the normal and %age play for 5 tricks

[wclass___]

No restricted choise here, but i got 70,4%

[skjaeran]

wclass___, on Jul 29 2009, 05:48 PM, said:

No restricted choise here, but i got 70,4%

76% is correct

[Stephen Tu]

76% is correct for 2 hooks.
70.35% for hook followed by ace catering to KQ doubleton off.
65.57% for ace first.
a priori

and only one 'o' in "loses"!

Restricted choice is already factored into the equation when you calculate in this fashion, counting KQ at full value, stiff K off & stiff Q off at full value.

The other way, you say RHO won the Q, you can count only stiff Qs, then half of the KQs.

Either method gives the correct answer mathematically.

*After* you lose one trick to east, and lead again and west follows low, a whole bunch of cases have been eliminated. Then it's only ~64.7% for the second hook to win. Higher than that if you want to calculate before leading toward dummy again (adding in cases where LHO follows with honor, or shows out).

[Fluffy]

Sorry, I am a bit lost, do these percentages mean that if you have only one entry, it is better to finese then play Ace than cash Ace first?

[gwnn]

Fluffy, on Jul 29 2009, 08:21 PM, said:

Sorry, I am a bit lost, do these percentages mean that if you have only one entry, it is better to finese then play Ace than cash Ace first?

No.

While there are 3 winning cases for the 1 finesse variation (HHx, HHxx) vs. 2 for the 0 finesse variation (Hxx), HHxx can't be picked up with only 1 finesse. And because a specific 2-2 is more likely than a specific 3-1, cashing Ace first is superior if you have only 1 entry.

[kgr]

gwnn, on Jul 29 2009, 08:51 PM, said:

Fluffy, on Jul 29 2009, 08:21 PM, said:

Sorry, I am a bit lost, do these percentages mean that if you have only one entry, it is better to finese then play Ace than cash Ace first?

No.

While there are 3 winning cases for the 1 finesse variation (HHx, HHxx) vs. 2 for the 0 finesse variation (Hxx), HHxx can't be picked up with only 1 finesse. And because a specific 2-2 is more likely than a specific 3-1, cashing Ace first is superior if you have only 1 entry.

Is cashing Ace first not the same then finessing once, with only one entry.
cashing Ace wins if East has singleton H, finessing once wins if East has singleton x.

[gwnn]

oh lol sorry about it.

well at least it was not in the a/e section.

[wclass___]

skaeran, on Jul 29 2009, 12:27 PM, said:

wclass___, on Jul 29 2009, 05:48 PM, said:

No restricted choise here, but i got 70,4%

76% is correct

Did you read the question?!

Quote

...And now the question:
Is 72% coorect for 3? I think it is a priori correct, but is it still correct after first finesse looses to West? Or is this lower then 72% because of restricted choice?

Suitplay gives
East
KQxx 4.78
KQx 12.43
K 6.21
Q 6.21
=29.63

[skjaeran]

wclass___, on Jul 29 2009, 10:00 PM, said:

skaeran, on Jul 29 2009, 12:27 PM, said:

wclass___, on Jul 29 2009, 05:48 PM, said:

No restricted choise here, but i got 70,4%

76% is correct

Did you read the question?!

Quote

...And now the question:
Is 72% coorect for 3? I think it is a priori correct, but is it still correct after first finesse looses to West? Or is this lower then 72% because of restricted choice?

Ahh, I overlooked that question indeed.