Posted 2009-July-20, 11:59
Late to the thread... I agree with the initial pass and with a late round 4♣ call by north.... but only if our style is to open 1♦ with, say, 4=1=4=4, since in that case we have a reasonably safe inference that partner has 5 clubs. Opposite a chunky 4=1=3=5, which seems to be the most probable holding on the auction, this hand is too good to sell out to 3♥.
As for an immediate 2♣ raise, that seems to me to be way too dangerous except in a weak notrump situation. I don't know the odds of a balanced 15-17 compared to a distributional hand... especially mediated by the overcall which surely alters the odds given my heart length.... I would probably regret my raise opposite a balanced notrump hand anyway.
Last year, the raise on a similar hand (in that case 3=2=4=4 5 count) led to a slam missed at the other table after the initial pass. But we were playing a weak notrump method at the time.
'one of the great markers of the advance of human kindness is the howls you will hear from the Men of God' Johann Hari