[whereagles]

Assuming pard would dbl 2NT with a clear dbl of one of their suits, I'd now try 6♦.

If I don't know anything about pard's tendencies... well, pass + pass, I guess.

[jdonn]

mtvesuvius, on Feb 2 2009, 11:42 AM, said:

jdonn, on Feb 1 2009, 11:25 PM, said:

5♠. I have no idea if it's a close call or not, I don't believe I have ever held a 3073 hand of this strength on this auction. I do believe however that bidding at all shows plenty of offense, so I am not particularly worried that I am failing to show my hand.

Doesn't a forcing pass, then pulling partner's double show more offense? 5♠ immeadiately is not a ST imo. Pass then 5♠ for me.

Bidding 5♠, whether preceeded by a forcing pass or not, shows a lot of offense. Obviously passing first is simply stronger than bidding right away.

I agree 5♠ is not defined as a slam try, although partner can often bid slam over it since it shows I think we are likely to make 11 tricks.

FWIW I don't pass first because I have only three spades, which makes the void less valuable and makes it a lot harder to deal with the bad breaks we are likely to receive.

[JLOL]

People are REALLY overestimating the power of this hand imo. Sure if we can stop clubs and pull trumps and run diamonds everything is all fine and dandy, but if we cant pull trumps (and trumps will often break badly) then there is significant risk after a heart lead ruffed that we can't really do anything. If we play the trumps then they can get in and cash some hearts, if we don't play the trumps then they can either keep pounding hearts or just play diamonds killing the dummy, etc.

Also it's not like our diamonds are solid, anything can happen there. We might either lose a trick to the DQ, or partner might have a stiff diamond which would be a disaster for our hand (though unlikely on the auction).

[skjaeran]

5♠, and I don't think it's very close. To me this hand isn't worth pass-and-pull. True, we might make a slam or even a grand, but there's no certainty we'll make even 5♠.

[gnasher]

Deleted - sorry, wrong thread.

[Apollo81]

5♠. The fact that partner didn't double 2NT is enough for me to not want to double them in 5♥.

[benlessard]

Partner need AKx in clubs to give us an entry for our good diamonds. So its a 5 or 7 hand.

[Fluffy]

benlessard, on Feb 4 2009, 04:18 PM, said:

Partner need AKx in clubs to give us an entry for our good diamonds. So its a 5 or 7 hand.

You have a point here, but ♠K might be our entry if partner has ♥A or they fail to lead this suit. Also ♦ can easilly be our entry as long as our LHO doesn't have the queen.

[FrancesHinden]

JLOL, on Feb 2 2009, 05:24 PM, said:

People are REALLY overestimating the power of this hand imo. Sure if we can stop clubs and pull trumps and run diamonds everything is all fine and dandy, but if we cant pull trumps (and trumps will often break badly) then there is significant risk after a heart lead ruffed that we can't really do anything. If we play the trumps then they can get in and cash some hearts, if we don't play the trumps then they can either keep pounding hearts or just play diamonds killing the dummy, etc.

Also it's not like our diamonds are solid, anything can happen there. We might either lose a trick to the DQ, or partner might have a stiff diamond which would be a disaster for our hand (though unlikely on the auction).

I'd have thought it's likely that if we want to be in a slam, 6D is likely to be better than 6S, for all the reasons that JLOL suggests spades may play badly.

We know that partner doesn't have a good 6-card spade suit, because he didn't bid 3S over 2NT. I think AQ10xxx is enough for a 3S bid, after all he knows we may be about to be pre-empted. Give him some boring weak NT such as

AQxxx
Qxx
Qx
Axx

and I probably want to defend 5Hx, but failing that if I'm going to bid, I'd much rather be in 6D than 5S. The same is true if you take away the queen of diamonds. Even opposite chunky spades such as AQJxx Qxx xx Axx 6D is quite possibly at least as good as 5S, as you are probably going to have to get diamonds right in either.

So _if_ I bid here, I think 6D is a better bid than 5S.

p.s. I don't have a very good record on this type auction. The last-time-but-one my team-mates had this type of hand, they bid slam, and oppo cashed the AK of the suit they had bid and supported (at least that won't happen here!). The last time the opponents had this typeo f hand, they bid slam, and my teammates failed to cash the AK of the suit they had bid and supported. One game swing out, one slam swing out.

[benlessard]

AQxxx
Qxx
Qx
Axx

This imo is a great weak nt hand. Sure the H q is wasted but 2 ace Qx of diamond and a ♠Q that is worth a K. If partner passed 5H (showing slam interest) I would bid 5Nt (pick-a-slam). So i dont think its terrible if we missed slam and partner hold this.

I would never pass 2Nt with Qxx of diamonds, I would pass xxx in diamonds only with wasted values. I would X 2nt with most good 14 with xx or less in diamonds. So passing 2 nt suggest holding a minimum opening.

With further thought i see that protecting the Q♣ is just too huge.

[rogerclee]

The actual hand was sort of a weird layout. 5♠ is down 2 on a crossruff, but 6♦ will make.

Partner has: ♠QTxxx ♥Qxx ♦Qx ♣AKx

[orlam]

Wow, well done Frances.

[JLOL]

Yeah before I knew results I was gonna say Frances convinced me, it's probably not even close. It's weird I knew all the reasons spades would play bad and it didn't occur to me to NOT PLAY SPADES lol.

[rogerclee]

orlam, on Feb 4 2009, 11:35 PM, said:

Wow, well done Frances.

Yes, a very good post by Frances. I thought pass and 5♠ was the best call, then Justin convinced me it was wrong, then Frances convinced me that everyone else was wrong.

[JLOL]

Frances I think you implied you might like passing and passing a double. I think one big problem of that plan is that they might well be cold. It's not like we have overwhelming defense.

[FrancesHinden]

JLOL, on Feb 5 2009, 07:02 AM, said:

Frances I think you implied you might like passing and passing a double. I think one big problem of that plan is that they might well be cold. It's not like we have overwhelming defense.

I carefully didn't say at all what I was actually going to do. I worked out that it's right to play in diamonds, if we play the hand, and stopped there.

But I agree that defending 5Hx does have exactly that risk.