[han]

Today I had the following hand, red at IMPs:

10832
Q96
J1094
106

Partner opened 1NT. Should I bid Stayman or not? I admit I wasn't sure what was best. I chose to bid and got lucky, partner had 5 hearts.

I ran the following simulation: I dealt 100 hands where partner had a balanced hands with 15-17 HCP, 5-card major allowed. I let deep finesse determine the number of tricks (double dummy) in notrump, diamonds, hearts and spades. Then for each hand I look at which contract we would play after Stayman, and compared the result with passing. These are the results:

44 wins for bidding Stayman.
21 pushes
35 wins for passing.

Bidding wins 205 IMPs but loses 162 IMPs so that's an average of +0.43 IMPs per hand. Does that mean that bidding is clearly right? I don't know, the following are all relevant:

- Single dummy play may benefit playing in 1NT more than in a suit contract. That may be especially true since the Stayman auction reveals more information.

- The opponents might double a suit contract more easily, especially when it splits badly.

- Bidding Stayman with 3442 shape is more attractive than with 4342 shape. It was reasonably frequent that partner was 4-4 in the majors and spades played better than hearts.

- I think that with a better hand (say 6 HCP) it would be clear to pass. With a 0-count I would bid since in the trump contract you rarely go down 4 or more, while that did happen occasionally in 1NT.

- 6-card minors were not allowed in the simulation. This was not done on purpose, but of course it is relevant. With 6-card minors allowed I think that bidding Stayman would do a little worse, certainly it would lower the number of times partner has a 4-card major. Similarly, if your partner doesn't frequently open 1NT with a 5-card major then that would make bidding Stayman less attractive.

Any thoughts?

[pclayton]

I think bidding is clear with 4 diamonds, any 3-4 in the majors and a hand this weak.

I think it would be much closer if we had 2-3 diamonds.

All vul, I want to encourage them to bid. -100's are a wash with their partscores, but we are gaining when we are -200 or -300. I think bidding encourages them to bid, since it sounds like we have a 'fit'.

[TimG]

han, on Oct 12 2008, 07:57 PM, said:

Today I had the following hand, red at IMPs:

10832
Q96
J1094
106

Partner opened 1NT. Should I bid Stayman or not? I admit I wasn't sure what was best. I chose to bid and got lucky, partner had 5 hearts.

Any thoughts?

I'd be curious to know how frequently a 5cM was in opener's hand and whether some of those would be opened 1M.

[CSGibson]

I would pass. You don't have enough shape to say that your hand will definitely play better in a suit contract.

One other thought I have is that I would be less likely to bid stayman because we play that opener, with a 5 card major and a max hand, will jump to 3 of the major.

[han]

TimG, on Oct 12 2008, 09:40 PM, said:

I'd be curious to know how frequently a 5cM was in opener's hand and whether some of those would be opened 1M.

I didn't set the constraints myself, the program does this automatically. All the hands with a 5-card major were some 5332 shape. I didn't save the hands.

It shouldn't be hard to estimate how often partner will have a 5-card major. It will be much harder to figure out how often you or I or them will open 1NT on those hands. Well, for me it actually isn't so hard unless I have a 17-count.

[uday]

Also to consider: how will opps (and partner!) react to 1N-P-P vs 1N-P-2C

You might find that once you make a noise, P will take you seriously and X them in something. Or it might go 2C-X-XX forcing you to run into a gray area ( is 2D drop dead then?)

Or it might be that opp is less likely to be able to intervene over 1N than he is to X 2C.

FWIW GIB (yes, yes, not my first choice for bidding tips either ) claims that it likes 2C, Pass, 2H (!) ( with 2C neck to neck with pass ). Small sample set.

At the table I'd pass in a flash, bec it is a very nice 3 count, and I would not be afraid of 1N.

[han]

uday, on Oct 12 2008, 10:36 PM, said:

At the table I'd pass in a flash, bec it is a very nice 3 count, and I would not be afraid of 1N.

Yes I agree, it is a very nice 3-count. But if GIB chooses 2C then...

I don't think partner will often go berserk after we bid Stayman, he knows we can be weak with 4441 shape or weak with both majors.

[gnasher]

I used to bid Stayman on hands of this type, but I don't any more, because a 1NT opening seems to contain a six-card minor much more often than it used to.

Good point about the benefits of being 3-4 rather that 4-3 in the majors.

[FrancesHinden]

gnasher, on Oct 13 2008, 08:25 AM, said:

I used to bid Stayman on hands of this type, but I don't any more, because a 1NT opening seems to contain a six-card minor much more often than it used to.

Good point about the benefits of being 3-4 rather that 4-3 in the majors.

I almost never have a 5-card major, and I frequently have a 6-card minor, so 2C is definitely wrong for me.

To the extent that I no longer play 'garbage' Stayman, because I so rarely have a suitable hand for it and it frees up so many other sequences.