[han]

KJx
AK10xxx
x
A10x

Red against white, IMPs, partner deals and opens 1D. Righty overcalls 3S, you play no special gadgets, your move.

[kfay]

I double-->4♥. Partner is probably not going to move with a lot of hands where slam is on but it seems to be the best I can do.

[Fluffy]

I bid 4 hearts, you cant have it all.

[MarkDean]

Tough one. At first I was bidding 4H, but I have convinced myself 3NT will make more often.

[P_Marlowe]

kfay, on Oct 8 2008, 12:47 AM, said:

I double-->4♥. Partner is probably not going to move with a lot of hands where slam is on but it seems to be the best I can do.

agree.

With kind regards
Marlowe

[gnasher]

I'm not doubling. What would I do if partner bid 5♣ or 5♦? In any case, doubling and then bidding 4♥ suggests a choice of strains rather than a one-suited slam try.

An immediate 4♥ seems preferable to 3NT.

[gwnn]

I think 3NT will make more often in practice than 4♥, so I will bid that. Double dummy the two games are probably much more closer. Of course 3NT will miss more slams than 4♥ but that is not my first concern at the moment.

[han]

What's 4NT here?

[kfay]

han, on Oct 8 2008, 08:05 AM, said:

What's 4NT here?

Quant.

I would bid 3NT. Double then 4♥ is a joke, this shows a flexible hand with exactly 5 hearts.

[jdonn]

kfay, on Oct 8 2008, 12:47 AM, said:

I double-->4♥.  Partner is probably not going to move with a lot of hands where slam is on but it seems to be the best I can do.

kfay, on Oct 8 2008, 11:05 AM, said:

I would bid 3NT. Double then 4♥ is a joke, this shows a flexible hand with exactly 5 hearts.

Credibility growing!

[FrancesHinden]

han, on Oct 8 2008, 02:05 PM, said:

What's 4NT here?

Natural. But I don't think this is the hand for it.

[han]

Why isn't this the hand for it?

It seemed to me that 4NT was right on values and my hand looked notrumpy. Well, ok, my hand didn't look notrumpy but I thought notrump would likely play as well or better than hearts.

The problem with 4NT is perhaps that partner will expect a balanced hand?

[jdonn]

han, on Oct 8 2008, 11:46 AM, said:

Why isn't this the hand for it?

It seemed to me that 4NT was right on values and my hand looked notrumpy. Well, ok, my hand didn't look notrumpy but I thought notrump would likely play as well or better than hearts.

The problem with 4NT is perhaps that partner will expect a balanced hand?

Seems light to me. I think around 18 balanced would be typical. Of course how you count for the long heart suit is up to you, but there is a bad fit for partner's diamonds as well.

[andy_h]

Singleton in partner's suit is a bad sign. Double might result in partner making an unfavourable bid. 4H seems just right. Preempts work, and now I have GF with 6 hearts by the AK so I will bid them.

[han]

Well, suppose you take a rosier view of this hand and end up in 6NT, never having bid your heart suit.

LHO leads a spade and dummy tables

xx
Q9
AQxxx
KQxx

RHO wins the ace and plays back a spade. You finesse of course and lefty pitches a diamond. How do you continue?

[mikeh]

edit: misread dummy.. will think, for a change, before posting

[mikeh]

Having belatedly realized that dummy has 4 clubs, there is a complex line that allows us to test clubs... playing for 4 winners on 3-3 or short Jack, which it turn allows us to hook the diamond, and play LHO for a red suit squeeze, thus avoiding the embarrassment of losing to the heart J in rho's hand.

However, I don't see how we can try for this while falling back on a heart to the 9 if clubs don't behave..we have no entries outside of the club suit, and, unless the J appears early, only one hand entry in the suit....not to mention that this line also needs the diamond finesse... and rho surely didn't deny the diamond K.

So I go back to where I came in: take an immediate heart finesse of the 9... lho has 12 non spade cards to rho's 6, so a priori, this finesse is 2 to 1 favoured to work, which is, I think, the best we are likely to do.

While a 3-2 heart break is, absent other info, slightly better than 2-1 odds, that is not true after the preempt. Even adding back in the small chance of stiff J in rho, I think the straight-up play in hearts is less than 66.66%

However, my analyses have recently become worse than their normal not-so-good level, so I look forward to learning what I missed this time

[gnasher]

I take a heart finesse.

[han]

I thought it interesting that playing clubs first increases your chances if you play hearts from the top. After all, if clubs split 3-3 then you can fall back on the squeeze if hearts turn out to split 4-1, so making it if hearts split, or if hearts are 4-1 and clubs 3-3 and the diamond king is onside (quite likely since diamonds would be 5-2). I agree with mikeh that just taking the heart finesse is probably still better.

When this hand came up RHO didn't return a spade but his stiff heart, which made everything easy.

[benlessard]

I agree with 4Nt. The chance of missing a slam by bidding 3Nt are much higher than the chance of reaching a bad slam + the chance that 4Nt go down.