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your move

#21 User is offline   cherdano 

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Posted 2008-October-08, 17:02

I checked the odds using Pavlicek's suit break calculators.
Hearts 3-2 is 53.9%, and singleton ♥J either way is 7.3%.
Hearts 4-1 and clubs 3-3 is 11.3%, so 5/7 of that (diamond finesse on) is 8.1%.

So altogether the squeeze line is 69%, which seems slightly better than the heart finesse.
(I ignored Mike's comments about picking up ♣Jx as in this case either hearts are running or the squeeze can't work.)

Of course the difference is negligible, but I guess we intuitively underestimate how much the singleton ♥J adds as a chance.
The easiest way to count losers is to line up the people who talk about loser count, and count them. -Kieran Dyke
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#22 User is offline   655321 

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Posted 2008-October-08, 17:29

In my regular partnerships, 4NT is RKCB for diamonds.

I agree that if 4NT is natural, it is a reasonable bid.
That's impossible. No one can give more than one hundred percent. By definition that is the most anyone can give.
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#23 User is offline   gnasher 

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Posted 2008-October-09, 02:14

cherdano, on Oct 9 2008, 12:02 AM, said:

I checked the odds using Pavlicek's suit break calculators.
Hearts 3-2 is 53.9%, and singleton ♥J either way is 7.3%.
Hearts 4-1 and clubs 3-3 is 11.3%, so 5/7 of that (diamond finesse on) is 8.1%.

So altogether the squeeze line is 69%, which seems slightly better than the heart finesse.

I think you've double-counted the cases where ♥J is singleton, but the requirements for the squeeze also exist. You only get 4/5 of 8.1, so the overall probability of success is 60%.

That's still better than the heart finesse, which seems to be 57.4%.
... that would still not be conclusive proof, before someone wants to explain that to me as well as if I was a 5 year-old. - gwnn
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