[andy_h]

Scoring: MP

---

Bidding proceeds:
(P) -- P -- (P) -- 1H
(P) -- 2H -- (P) -- 3C
(P) -- 4H -- All Pass.

LHO leads the ♠2 (3rd/5th) and you stick in the Jack and it holds. What's the best % line in MPs?

[ceeb]

♣A, K, ♣ ruffing low is around 72% for 12 tricks.

same ruffing high is 67%.

Hence paradoxically the line requiring a club break is better than the line requiring a trump break. The reason is that the two lines converge if LHO shows out on the third club. Clubs 4-3 is only 63%, but it is 75% of the cases in which LHO has not got xx. The chance of a trump break, by contrast, is not much changed by knowing about LHO's club holding.

Cashing the spades early is wrong because releasing the trump jack loses to club xx on the left.

[gnasher]

The bidding seems rather odd. This one really is too strong to open 1♥, isn't it? Furthermore, 3♣ seems a bit pointless if you're not going to move once partner says he likes it.

[OleBerg]

gnasher, on May 18 2008, 02:12 PM, said:

The bidding seems rather odd.  This one really is too strong to open 1♥, isn't it?  Furthermore, 3♣ seems a bit pointless if you're not going to move once partner says he likes it.

Not really, at least not in my book.

Not too strong for 1♥. 2-suiters can be difficult to handle, when you open 2♣.

3♣ is not pointless. Partner liked it, but he didnt like it enough. South was interested slam, only if North made a move towards slam under his own steam.

3♣ might also pave the way for 3nt, especially importent at MP's.

Best Regards

Ole Berg

[pclayton]

Jlall, on May 18 2008, 08:30 AM, said:

ceeb, on May 18 2008, 11:14 AM, said:

♣A, K, ♣ ruffing low is around 72% for 12 tricks.

same ruffing high is 67%.

Hence paradoxically the line requiring a club break is better than the line requiring a trump break. The reason is that the two lines converge if LHO shows out on the third club. Clubs 4-3 is only 63%, but it is 75% of the cases in which LHO has not got xx. The chance of a trump break, by contrast, is not much changed by knowing about LHO's club holding.

Cashing the spades early is wrong because releasing the trump jack loses to club xx on the left.

Heh, I was thinking the alternative line the OP was thinking of might involve leading a diamond up. That would be such a huge mind game though and given that you have such excellent chances for 12 tricks without doing that, I think it is a bad line. In a perfect world where you always knew how LHO would react this might be a good line though.

Ugh, I hate a diamond up before taking a spade pitch. It only gains if LHO has the Ace, and you can read it, and he ducks. If RHO has the AQ or you can't read it, you've thrown away your advantage on this hand. +680 looks ok to me.

4♥ really looks better than 3N and probably better than 6♥ too, so you are pretty far ahead already here.

[gnasher]

pclayton, on May 19 2008, 01:31 AM, said:

4♥ really looks better than 3N and probably better than 6♥ too, so you are pretty far ahead already here.

Unless you know that you need to achieve a particular score on this board, what might happen in 6♥ is irrelevant - you have already either lost or gained a matchpoint against each pair that is in slam, and you can't do anything to change that.

[poohbear]

OleBerg, on May 18 2008, 02:27 PM, said:

gnasher, on May 18 2008, 02:12 PM, said:

The bidding seems rather odd.  This one really is too strong to open 1♥, isn't it?  Furthermore, 3♣ seems a bit pointless if you're not going to move once partner says he likes it.

Not really, at least not in my book.

Not too strong for 1♥. 2-suiters can be difficult to handle, when you open 2♣.

3♣ is not pointless. Partner liked it, but he didnt like it enough. South was interested slam, only if North made a move towards slam under his own steam.

3♣ might also pave the way for 3nt, especially importent at MP's.

Best Regards

Ole Berg

The plan was to get to 3nt. Slam was never an issue when partner didn't Drury . I hate opening 2c with these types of hands. It is Preemptive

[pclayton]

Jlall, on May 19 2008, 03:34 AM, said:

pclayton, on May 18 2008, 07:31 PM, said:

Jlall, on May 18 2008, 08:30 AM, said:

ceeb, on May 18 2008, 11:14 AM, said:

♣A, K, ♣ ruffing low is around 72% for 12 tricks.

same ruffing high is 67%.

Hence paradoxically the line requiring a club break is better than the line requiring a trump break. The reason is that the two lines converge if LHO shows out on the third club. Clubs 4-3 is only 63%, but it is 75% of the cases in which LHO has not got xx. The chance of a trump break, by contrast, is not much changed by knowing about LHO's club holding.

Cashing the spades early is wrong because releasing the trump jack loses to club xx on the left.

Heh, I was thinking the alternative line the OP was thinking of might involve leading a diamond up. That would be such a huge mind game though and given that you have such excellent chances for 12 tricks without doing that, I think it is a bad line. In a perfect world where you always knew how LHO would react this might be a good line though.

Ugh, I hate a diamond up before taking a spade pitch. It only gains if LHO has the Ace, and you can read it, and he ducks. If RHO has the AQ or you can't read it, you've thrown away your advantage on this hand. +680 looks ok to me.

4♥ really looks better than 3N and probably better than 6♥ too, so you are pretty far ahead already here.

Why do people always assume RHO will cash the diamond even if they have the AQ? It is in general an abnormal play to win the diamond and just cash another diamond when declarer is playing them. How do they know you have AKQ of clubs and have done this? What if you have AQx of clubs and they need to play a club through before you get your diamonds established which is a much more normal thing to happen? What if the defenders cannot read the count? What if LHO pops DA because he's scared of your spade pitch and now you don't have to risk 5-2 clubs offside.

BTW again I don't think it's the right play, but it's the kind of play people never consider when they often should imo.

That's true. Since we are about two Kings heavy for our bidding , we'd surely get away with a diamond early.