[SchTsch]

Scoring: MP

---

You are VUL against nonVUL playing MPs and your RHO opens 3♥.
What now?

[whereagles]

3NT and hope for the best... maybe pard has Qxx or Kxx.

[effervesce]

Ouch. Looks like any bid from you here will likely end up in a minus. Passing for a +ve score should be good. Even at IMPs I might still pass.

[pclayton]

Easy pass.

Even I will allow myself to get fixed once in awhile.

[whereagles]

The thing with pass is pard will also pass with 9-10 hcp and a heart stop and game may be lost. E.g.

Kxx
Axx
xxx
Qxxx

[jdonn]

Jlall, on May 5 2008, 11:06 AM, said:

I saw rodwell pass with this hand type once but it was like a 20 count heh. Anyways, agree with pass for sure. If you have seen this hand type before you will be able to do it in tempo!

This is a pass. But I have to admit with a hand like this but 20 I couldn't resist doing something hehe.

[pclayton]

whereagles, on May 5 2008, 08:31 AM, said:

The thing with pass is pard will also pass with 9-10 hcp and a heart stop and game may be lost. E.g.

Kxx
Axx
xxx
Qxxx

And the thing with 3N is that pard will have a perfectly normal pass of 3N with many, many other hands that do not contain a heart stopper and you will quietly go down 3 or 4 vulnerable.

Nuno, if you get doubled are you running?

[whereagles]

pclayton, on May 5 2008, 05:25 PM, said:

1. And the thing with 3N is that pard will have a perfectly normal pass of 3N with many, many other hands that do not contain a heart stopper and you will quietly go down 3 or 4 vulnerable.

2. Nuno, if you get doubled are you running?

1. A quick simulation (RHO 6-7 hearts 5-11 hcp, pard stops if Qxx+ or A+) shows pard has an average of 8 hcp and there's a stop 44% of the time. These seem like good odds for teams, but probably not at pairs.

2. No.

[jdonn]

whereagles, on May 5 2008, 12:56 PM, said:

pclayton, on May 5 2008, 05:25 PM, said:

1. And the thing with 3N is that pard will have a perfectly normal pass of 3N with many, many other hands that do not contain a heart stopper and you will quietly go down 3 or 4  vulnerable.

2. Nuno, if you get doubled are you running?

1. A quick simulation (RHO 6-7 hearts 5-11 hcp, pard stops if Qxx+ or A+) shows pard has an average of 8 hcp and there's a stop 44% of the time. These seem like good odds for teams, but probably not at pairs.

If we take the 44%, that is not good odds at teams (at least not necessarily) because the generous odds to bid a vul game at teams assume making or down 1. If this is down it could easily be down a lot, and you even admit you aren't running if doubled. Not to mention the 44% is how often you have game strength and hearts stopped. If you make game on 3/4 of those hands that means only 33%.

Another reason is that on a few of those hands, not that many I admit but some, partner will balance with 3♠ or 3NT himself, so you would be even lower than the 44% on hands that are being passed out.

I think your sim shows pretty clearly that 3NT is not best.

[pclayton]

whereagles, on May 5 2008, 09:56 AM, said:

1. A quick simulation (RHO 6-7 hearts 5-11 hcp, pard stops if Qxx+ or A+) shows pard has an average of 8 hcp and there's a stop 44% of the time.

I don't understand this.

Are saying that pard will have Qxx or Ax (+) 44% of the time?

Or are you saying that 3N will make 44% of the time after the Qxx / Ax condition is satisfied?

[jdonn]

pclayton, on May 5 2008, 01:40 PM, said:

whereagles, on May 5 2008, 09:56 AM, said:

1. A quick simulation (RHO 6-7 hearts 5-11 hcp, pard stops if Qxx+ or A+) shows pard has an average of 8 hcp and there's a stop 44% of the time.

I don't understand this.

Are saying that pard will have Qxx or Ax (+) 44% of the time?

Or are you saying that 3N will make 44% of the time after the Qxx / Ax condition is satisfied?

He is saying 44% of the time partner has 8+ and hearts stopped. I think.

Now that I reread it looks like he is saying two things. Partner averages 8+, and he has hearts stopped 44% of the time. So eh now I don't know.

[awm]

Another point against 3NT is that opener will not bid 3♥ with any random hand including 6-7 hearts and 5-11 hcp. Especially the hands with only six hearts will tend to contain some top honors in the suit, reducing the chance of partner holding a stopper.

And it's not like 3NT is automatically cold if partner has a stopper; we could still be well short of nine tricks.

How bad is 4♣ on this hand type? While it appears to rule out 3NT, you're not likely to get to 3NT by passing these cards either. Obviously you could go for a number if partner is broke and things are breaking badly, but you do have game values "on average", and this call could easily get you to a making 4♠ or 5m on hands where partner was passing out 3♥...

[whereagles]

jdonn, on May 5 2008, 07:03 PM, said:

He is saying 44% of the time partner has 8+ and hearts stopped. I think.

Now that I reread it looks like he is saying two things. Partner averages 8+, and he has hearts stopped 44% of the time. So eh now I don't know.

Sorry, that wasn't very clear. I was saying that 44% of the time there is a stop, pard not necessarily having with 8 hcp simultaneously. Then I said he will have 8 hcp on average, but won't always have a stop.

I reran the simulation so that I get the percentage of time game is ok, i.e. there's a stop AND pard has 8+ hcp.

If I allow for a 6 card heart suit, we get to a good game 32% of the time. If I demand a 7 card suit for the pree, game is good only 24% of the time. Those are bad odds, so I have to concede pass is statistically the better bid.

HOWEVER, I didn't factor out stuff like a block in hearts, say, the suit breaking like

---

So odds can improve slightly. And there's always the chance leftie leads.. spades

[benlessard]

I play that my X are semi penalty so these hand are perfect for us. But playing standard i would still X. If partner bid 4S he might have 5 or 6. If he bid 3S ill try 3Nt hoping he understand that i have only half a stopper (+ both minors or a long minor.)

[han]

Nuno, you still didn't count for the fact that partner will bid on some of the hands where you can make game.

And again, the percentage should be higher than 35% or so because you will often go down 3 or more. Sometimes doubled.

[whereagles]

han, on May 6 2008, 03:59 PM, said:

Nuno, you still didn't count for the fact that partner will bid on some of the hands where you can make game.

hum... what were you thinking of?

[awm]

So I generated a bunch of example hands for partner, under the constraints that we have this hand and RHO has 7♥ with 5-10 hcp. After throwing out the hands where partner has an obvious balancing call, here's what I got:

1.

♠KT8654
♥T
♦T76
♣986

Partner might pull 3NT to 4♠, in any case a number of four level contracts (spades, clubs) are likely to fail by a trick and 3NT is awful. Passing 3♥ is the winner.

2.

♠J98743
♥86
♦764
♣T9

Again passing is the winner. Double and pass 3♠ from partner might survive, anything else awful.

3.

♠K965
♥A97
♦94
♣Q986

Bidding wins here as both 3NT and 5♣ have good prospects. Probably a 4♣ overcall is a bit better than 3NT, since if the clubs don't behave you are down only one instead of a zillion.

4.

♠QJ876
♥3
♦Q65
♣QT76

Some play for 5♣ or 4♠. 3NT is a disaster. Pass is an okay "middle of the road" option, bidding 4♣ seems to work out pretty well too.

5.

♠KQJ6
♥Q8
♦QJ97
♣Q98

Conceivable partner might balance on this, but I think not obvious to do so. Probably 4♠ on the 4-2 fit is the best game! Perhaps a win for double and pass 4♠ from partner?

6.

♠8654
♥Q63
♦T876
♣T7

Any non-pass action here is probably awful.

7.

♠KQ7653
♥43
♦J64
♣K6

Double and 4♣ both win here as a good 4♠ should be reached. Bidding 3NT is okay if partner pulls to 4♠ not not clear he will. Pass misses a pretty good game.

8.

♠KJT63
♥K8
♦9764
♣K7

Both 4♠ and 3NT from partner's side are okay, but not spectacular. Kind of a toss-up.

9.

♠JT86
♥A
♦T6
♣QJT987

Here 5♣ is cold and even 6♣ has some play. 3NT is basically on a club guess, not bad but I'd rather be in 5♣. Pass is a big loser here.

10.

♠QT93
♥T8
♦Q64
♣KJ98

Bidding 3NT seems disastrous. A 4♣ overcall is fine if partner lets you play there. Pass probably beats 3♥ a trick.

11.

♠Q987
♥A76
♦JT84
♣K8

Both 3NT and 5♦ seem okay, but not spectacularly good. Not clear what is best on this one either.

12.

♠Q9753
♥K
♦J965
♣KJ7

Not much chance for 3NT (unless maybe from partner's side). Five of a minor has chances but is not very good. Pass is best here.

13.

♠JT65
♥AQ3
♦86
♣KT97

Good hand for 3NT. But notice that 5♣ also has some play. Pass misses a pretty good game.

14.

♠T953
♥-
♦JT98
♣QJT97

Five of a minor is pretty good. 3NT horrendous. Pass misses a pretty good game (although I suppose LHO is likely to bid 4♥ and give you another chance).

15.

♠J865
♥Q
♦QT86
♣QJ86

Some play for 5m but it's less than 50%. 3NT is awful. Pass is the winner.

16.

♠QJ6
♥T54
♦QT4
♣Q876

Some chance the suit blocks in 3NT. 4♣ is okay but not five.

17.

♠QT83
♥KQ7
♦T9654
♣T

Partner has two heart honors! 3NT is best here, but it still might fail. 5♦ is probably down on a heart lead and ruff (lose two diamonds and a spade). Pass is okay.

18.

♠9743
♥K8
♦854
♣KQ76

Again, 3NT from partner's hand has chances. 3NT from our side not so much. It seems likely that 4♣ is down one, but 3♥ could make!

19.

♠QJ9873
♥K6
♦J
♣K876

4♠ from partner's side is quite good. Pass misses the game. 3NT may play the wrong game (and from wrong side) unless partner pulls to 4♠.

20.

♠JT865
♥T
♦QT8764
♣K

5♦ seems like the spot. Double or 4♣ gives us a shot to reach it; 3NT probably will get passed out and set. Pass misses another good game.

21.

♠KJ86
♥9
♦QT986
♣J87

Some play for four of either minor, not so much for five. Bidding 4♣ probably lets you play there, pass and 3♥ might make or be down one.

Looking at these, it seems like bidding 3NT is usually awful when opener has the "normal" seven card heart suit. It has a few wins but a lot more losses (some very expensive). It's a bit less bad if partner will normally pull to 4♠ on a six-card suit there, but this seems non-obvious since 3NT could be based on a running minor. On the other hand, overcalling 4♣ seems to win over pass quite frequently, although there are occasional huge disasters when partner is broke.