[pclayton]

Had an interesting hand yesterday:

Scoring: MP

---

East on your right opens 1♣ and you play 3N after a 1N overcall and transfer sequence.

LHO leads the ♠4, 3, J, 6. RHO returns the ♠5, 7, 9, A.

You try a heart to the K and it holds. The ♥10 wins the 2nd trick.

What now?

This post has been edited by pclayton: 2008-April-27, 10:26

[Winstonm]

It appears that RHO is 3334, so now duck a diamond. Win the return, cash all high cards left, and lead a low club to the Queen.

[kenrexford]

When the heart 10 won, RHO presumably was fairly certain that this was your last heart. This would leave you with no entry to dummy if LHO has control of clubs. Thus, he would seem to be better placed if he won the second heart, depriving you of what may be your ninth trick, unless he felt that a club entry was available.

Thus, this duck suggests to me that RHO does not have control of clubs. He most assuredly will not have A10x, IMO. I would want to know if RHO could open 1♣ with a doubleton. That said, it seems fairly reasonable to give LHO the club Ace or 10. If he lacks the Ace, then he has spade QJ (no reason to play honestly here), diamond QJ, and heart Ace, but that's very light. So, I'm fairly certain that LHO has the club 10.

No reason to be rash, though. I think I'll start with the club King, just in case. It is plausible that RHO wins this, LHO dropping the stiff 8, and I have a marked finesse. Likely, though, the King will hold, in which case I lead small and hook if RHO can have a doubleton Ax in clubs. If the King holds and I send another club at dummy, LHO following, I think I'll finesse, again, if RHO can have Ax.

This, of course, suggests a counter-maneuver of ducking the heart because you hold A10x. Damn bluff-counter-bluff's! Well, if RHO has A108x, he would have zero reason to duck the heart. So, I'll play him for A-third, with or without the 10, if he looks sneaky and try to drop the 10 on either side.

[Winstonm]

Quote

Thus, this duck suggests to me that RHO does not have control of clubs.

Ken, are you suggesting RHO opened the bidding with: Qxx, Axx, QJx, 10xxx?

[pclayton]

Winstonm, on Apr 26 2008, 08:31 AM, said:

It appears that RHO is 3334, so now duck a diamond. Win the return, cash all high cards left, and lead a low club to the Queen.

How do you know spades are 4-3?

[jdonn]

pclayton, on Apr 26 2008, 12:01 PM, said:

Winstonm, on Apr 26 2008, 08:31 AM, said:

It appears that RHO is 3334, so now duck a diamond.  Win the return, cash all high cards left, and lead a low club to the Queen.

How do you know spades are 4-3?

Usually the more fives of spades there are in the deck, the more evenly the suit is breaking.

[Winstonm]

jdonn, on Apr 26 2008, 12:05 PM, said:

pclayton, on Apr 26 2008, 12:01 PM, said:

Winstonm, on Apr 26 2008, 08:31 AM, said:

It appears that RHO is 3334, so now duck a diamond.  Win the return, cash all high cards left, and lead a low club to the Queen.

How do you know spades are 4-3?

Usually the more fives of spades there are in the deck, the more evenly the suit is breaking.

LoL.

[Winstonm]

pclayton, on Apr 26 2008, 12:01 PM, said:

Winstonm, on Apr 26 2008, 08:31 AM, said:

It appears that RHO is 3334, so now duck a diamond.  Win the return, cash all high cards left, and lead a low club to the Queen.

How do you know spades are 4-3?

I don't, for sure, but it doesn't matter if RHO is 2335, either.

[pclayton]

jdonn, on Apr 26 2008, 09:05 AM, said:

pclayton, on Apr 26 2008, 12:01 PM, said:

Winstonm, on Apr 26 2008, 08:31 AM, said:

It appears that RHO is 3334, so now duck a diamond.  Win the return, cash all high cards left, and lead a low club to the Queen.

How do you know spades are 4-3?

Usually the more fives of spades there are in the deck, the more evenly the suit is breaking.

Oops, corrected.

[gnasher]

Even now that we have only one ♠5, the layout of the suit is still a little murky.

If RHO has ♠Qxx, LHO led low from ♠J109x, which seems unlikely. If RHO has ♠Q10x, LHO played the nine from a remaining J9x. That would be odd - he's likely to play honest cards, for his partner's benefit.

I think the most likely layout is that RHO has ♠Q1052 and LHO ♠J94, East's five being an attempt to mislead me about who has the length.

So, I think East is 4=3=3=3, 4=3=2=4 or 4=3=1=5. The latter two shapes together are more likely than the first, and it's not unreasonable for West to lead a spade from something like J9x Jxx J10xxx xx. Furthermore, with Q10xx Axx QJx A10x East has misdefended by not taking ♥A.

So, I cash ♠K, expecting to see the jack from West, then ♦AK followed by another spade.

[Winstonm]

Quote

So, I cash ♠K, expecting to see the jack from West, then ♦AK followed by another spade.

If, as you say, east can be 4333, then on this line he simply exits with a diamond to his partner who cashes the last diamond, winning then, 2 diamonds, 1 heart, 1 club, and 1 spade.

[pclayton]

gnasher, on Apr 26 2008, 10:52 AM, said:

Even now that we have only one ♠5, the layout of the suit is still a little murky.

If RHO has ♠Qxx, LHO led low from ♠J109x, which seems unlikely. If RHO has ♠Q10x, LHO played the nine from a remaining J9x. That would be odd - he's likely to play honest cards, for his partner's benefit.

I think the most likely layout is that RHO has ♠Q1052 and LHO ♠J94, East's five being an attempt to mislead me about who has the length.

So, I think East is 4=3=3=3, 4=3=2=4 or 4=3=1=5. The latter two shapes together are more likely than the first, and it's not unreasonable for West to lead a spade from something like J9x Jxx J10xxx xx. Furthermore, with Q10xx Axx QJx A10x East has misdefended by not taking ♥A.

So, I cash ♠K, expecting to see the jack from West, then ♦AK followed by another spade.

I've botched this up. I think East won the J, not the Q. West appears to have an original holding of QT9x or QT9xx.

[Vilgan]

I am simpleminded. After the duck of the heart, I am going to play west for the T of clubs. If east has it.. I think I was fairly screwed anyways assuming east knows to unblock his/her diamond honors.

[kenrexford]

Winstonm, on Apr 26 2008, 11:41 AM, said:

Quote

Thus, this duck suggests to me that RHO does not have control of clubs.

Ken, are you suggesting RHO opened the bidding with: Qxx, Axx, QJx, 10xxx?

If you read my entire post, I suggested that LHO does not have control of the entire club suit, meaning that he cannot beat both the Queen and the 9. I then provide the exact same hand you propose, with the addition of the spade Jack, and discount that as highly unlikely. So, I then decide that, because this seems implausible, RHO must have the Ace.

If Declarer has KJ8x, then small to the 7, then 8 to the 9, then Jack to the Queen creates two entries. A really deep 7 finesse, with the actual hand, also yields two plausible entries. All this if RHO lacks the 10. With the 10, however, there cannot be two entries. So, the club 10 seems to be with LHO because of the duck.

Note that the line of ducking a diamond, winning a diamond, and cashing out the spades and diamonds to lead a club to the Queen fails when LHO has 10x(x) if you ride to the 9.

Note, also, that RHO rates to not have the A8x, as this equally deprives dummy of a second entry. So, I would assume that LHO has 108, 108x, or 108xx (if Ax is possible for the 1♣ opening).

[Vilgan]

kenrexford, on Apr 26 2008, 04:35 PM, said:

Note, also, that RHO rates to not have the A8x, as this equally deprives dummy of a second entry. So, I would assume that LHO has 108, 108x, or 108xx (if Ax is possible for the 1♣ opening).

Why does LHO need to have the 8 of clubs? As long as he has the T we are golden. A club to the 9 now provides 3 club tricks to go with our 2 hearts/spades/diamonds to make 3 NT. I mean yes.. I could see LHO having it after the duck. However, there is no real need for him to have it to make our contract.

[Winstonm]

Quote

Note that the line of ducking a diamond, winning a diamond, and cashing out the spades and diamonds to lead a club to the Queen fails when LHO has 10x(x) if you ride to the 9.

This is true. But I think you put too much emphasis on the club 10 as an influence on RHO's play. If he is looking at Qxx, Axx, Qxx, A10xx, he can tell you do not have 9 cashing tricks even after winning 2 hearts.

The play suggests that LHO has length in spades and the hearts are 3-3. If so, then RHO should be - if normaly bidding is used - 2326, 2335 or 3334 - and either way the odds favor the club length to hold both missing cards, A and 10.

I did misunderstand your post, as I thought you meant that LHO held 1st round control of clubs - very unlikely.

I still prefer my line - duck a diamond, win the return, strip RHO's entries by cashing high cards, then screw him with a club to the Q. Besides, it's a more elegant ending, with RHO having to decide whether to attempt the effect of exiting with the club 10 to block the suit, to no avail, or cashing the heart A and exiting with a low club.

[gnasher]

Winstonm, on Apr 26 2008, 08:22 PM, said:

Quote

So, I cash ♠K, expecting to see the jack from West, then ♦AK followed by another spade.

If, as you say, east can be 4333, then on this line he simply exits with a diamond to his partner who cashes the last diamond, winning then, 2 diamonds, 1 heart, 1 club, and 1 spade.

And if he is 4324 or 4315, he is endplayed. I can't cope with all three of his possible shapes, so I make the play that copes with two of them.

[gnasher]

Winstonm, on Apr 26 2008, 11:21 PM, said:

I still prefer my line - duck a diamond, win the return, strip RHO's entries by cashing high cards, then screw him with a club to the Q.

If RHO is known to be 3334 (or similar with more clubs), I prefer the line that guarantees the contract, which is: duck a diamond, win the return, cash spade and diamond honours, lead CJ (which has to win), play a club to the queen.

Edit: Sorry - complete gibberish. Please pretend you never read this.

This post has been edited by gnasher: 2008-April-26, 17:08

[jdonn]

gnasher, on Apr 26 2008, 05:44 PM, said:

Winstonm, on Apr 26 2008, 11:21 PM, said:

I still prefer my line - duck a diamond, win the return, strip RHO's entries by cashing high cards, then screw him with a club to the Q.

If RHO is known to be 3334 (or similar with more clubs), I prefer the line that guarantees the contract, which is: duck a diamond, win the return, cash spade and diamond honours, lead CJ (which has to win), play a club to the queen.

It looks to me like if rho is 3334 yours does not guarantee the contract since if rho has AT8x of clubs you lose 1 + 1 + 1 + 2 tricks.

[Winstonm]

gnasher, on Apr 26 2008, 05:44 PM, said:

Winstonm, on Apr 26 2008, 11:21 PM, said:

I still prefer my line - duck a diamond, win the return, strip RHO's entries by cashing high cards, then screw him with a club to the Q.

If RHO is known to be 3334 (or similar with more clubs), I prefer the line that guarantees the contract, which is: duck a diamond, win the return, cash spade and diamond honours, lead CJ (which has to win), play a club to the queen.

If RHO holds 4, 5, or 6 clubs, the odds favor him holding both missing cards, the A and the 10. As long as RHO holds what the play has suggested that he has, 3 or fewer spades, I would think the club length would be more likely.

As for the carding, isn't this really an extension of restricted choice? If RHO had started with Q5 his play would have been restricted rather than having a choice of plays from QJ52.