[gnasher]

Given that RHO is 3334. the line of playing ♣J before one to the queen (which I bizarrely claimed made the contract cold) is still best. 10x, 8x or 108 are collectively more than twice as likely as xx.

[Winstonm]

gnasher, on Apr 26 2008, 06:16 PM, said:

Given that RHO is 3334. the line of playing ♣J before one to the queen (which I bizarrely claimed made the contract cold) is still best. 10x, 8x or 108 are collectively more than twice as likely as xx.

RHO does not have to be 3334. He could be 2326 or 2335. If RHO has the A10xx(x)(x) then the club J is a losing play.

[pclayton]

I ducked a diamond.

RHO did exit a 3rd spade, although up til then I wasn't sure if RHO had 2 or 3 spades. I cashed the other diamonds and RHO turned up with 3 diamonds. RHO was obviously 3=3=3=4 now.

Now the moment of glory, a club to the queen. If RHO did have ATxx, she was toast. She fired back a low club and I blew to the 10x. My play still has 3:2 odds.

I don't quite agree with Ken's reasoning about the club spots and RHO's refusal to win the club, but he does give some interesting ideas. Mainly, people duck tricks just to duck them when there is a long suit on the board. Maybe she doesn't trust her pard's carding, and that I really had ♥KJT. Or maybe she just wasn't sure about the entry situation. As you can see, even if she had ATxx, I can't be kept from the board, so this doesn't seem like a relevant concern.

There are plenty of club holdings in the West hand that preclude me from reaching the board. I don't think East can be sure that I have 4 clubs, although West's refusal to lead a club mitigates the possibility I have two or three. We also can't be finessing LHO for the 8 spot either - this leads to the loss of 5 tricks - 1♠, 1♥, 1♦ and 2♣'s, while we are making a max of 2♠, 2♥, 2♦ and 2♣'s.

Many of you have assumed that RHO was 3334 all along. While you would have been right, early in the play it seemed to me he could be 2=3=2=6, 2=3=3=5, 3=3=2=5 or 3=3=3=4, especially with a non-club lead. 2=3=4=4 seemed unlikely since most people around here open 1♦ with any 4-4.

In retrospect, I think the best line is something no one has mentioned. ONE high diamond, and exit a diamond. This will make when East has many honor doubletons in diamonds, or doesn't unblock right away. It costs nothing when RHO is 3334 anyway.

This was a particularly embarrassing hand. Most of the field was making this hand by trying to induce an extra entry and leading a high club out of hand. When LHO got in, he had a spade and diamond to cash so I lost a heart, 2 spades, 2 clubs and 2 diamonds. Down 3!

Sorry about the early typos. I really hated correcting this thread, since I think its such a great hand to talk about.

[Winstonm]

pclayton, on Apr 26 2008, 06:19 PM, said:

I ducked a diamond.

RHO did exit a 3rd spade, although up til then I wasn't sure if RHO had 2 or 3 spades. I cashed the other diamonds and RHO turned up with 3 diamonds. RHO was obviously 3=3=3=4 now.

Now the moment of glory, a club to the queen. If RHO did have ATxx, she was toast. She fired back a low club and I blew to the 10x. My play still has 3:2 odds.

I don't quite agree with Ken's reasoning about the club spots and RHO's refusal to win the club, but he does give some interesting ideas. Mainly, people duck tricks just to duck them when there is a long suit on the board. Maybe she doesn't trust her pard's carding, and that I really had ♥KJT. Or maybe she just wasn't sure about the entry situation. As you can see, even if she had ATxx, I can't be kept from the board, so this doesn't seem like a relevant concern.

There are plenty of club holdings in the West hand that preclude me from reaching the board. I don't think East can be sure that I have 4 clubs, although West's refusal to lead a club mitigates the possibility I have two or three. We also can't be finessing LHO for the 8 spot either - this leads to the loss of 5 tricks - 1♠, 1♥, 1♦ and 2♣'s, while we are making a max of 2♠, 2♥, 2♦ and 2♣'s.

Many of you have assumed that RHO was 3334 all along. While you would have been right, early in the play it seemed to me he could be 2=3=2=6, 2=3=3=5, 3=3=2=5 or 3=3=3=4, especially with a non-club lead. 2=3=4=4 seemed unlikely since most people around here open 1♦ with any 4-4.

In retrospect, I think the best line is something no one has mentioned. ONE high diamond, and exit a diamond. This will make when East has many honor doubletons in diamonds, or doesn't unblock right away. It costs nothing when RHO is 3334 anyway.

This was a particularly embarrassing hand. Most of the field was making this hand by trying to induce an extra entry and leading a high club out of hand. When LHO got in, he had a spade and diamond to cash so I lost a heart, 2 spades, 2 clubs and 2 diamonds. Down 3!

Sorry about the early typos. I really hated correcting this thread, since I think its such a great hand to talk about.

Well, Phil, you salvage half a matchpoint. I went down, too!

[gnasher]

Winstonm, on Apr 27 2008, 12:19 AM, said:

RHO does not have to be 3334. He could be 2326 or 2335. If RHO has the A10xx(x)(x) then the club J is a losing play.

And if he is, I will already know that, because I will have seen him show out on the third round of spades or diamonds. The club jack is the correct play when RHO is known to have a doubleton; when he is known to have a singleton it is correct to lead low to the queen.

[gnasher]

If 2=3=4=4 were a possibility, ace and a low diamond wouldn't work - they'd play back another diamond, setting up a fifth winner.

For the same reason. having ducked a diamond and won the return, you should cash the third spade before the third diamond. If East threw a club on this you'd still have to guess whether he was 2=3=4=4 or 2=3=3=5.

[gnasher]

pclayton, on Apr 27 2008, 12:19 AM, said:

Now the moment of glory, a club to the queen. If RHO did have ATxx, she was toast. She fired back a low club and I blew to the 10x. My play still has 3:2 odds.

I think it's 7:3 against.

[Winstonm]

gnasher, on Apr 26 2008, 06:33 PM, said:

pclayton, on Apr 27 2008, 12:19 AM, said:

Now the moment of glory, a club to the queen. If RHO did have ATxx, she was toast. She fired back a low club and I blew to the 10x. My play still has 3:2 odds.

I think it's 7:3 against.

You are missing something - can't say where. Let's assume the missing cards are these : A106543 and it is known that RHO holds the Ace.

Out of the possible doubletons, here are LHO's possible holdings:
65, 64, 63, 54, 53, 43
103, 104, 105, 106

As is plain, the odds are 6:4, or 3:2, that the doubleton is xx and not 10x.

Correct odds-on play is low to the Queen.

[kenrexford]

Vilgan, on Apr 26 2008, 04:59 PM, said:

kenrexford, on Apr 26 2008, 04:35 PM, said:

Note, also, that RHO rates to not have the A8x, as this equally deprives dummy of a second entry.  So, I would assume that LHO has 108, 108x, or 108xx (if Ax is possible for the 1♣ opening).

Why does LHO need to have the 8 of clubs? As long as he has the T we are golden. A club to the 9 now provides 3 club tricks to go with our 2 hearts/spades/diamonds to make 3 NT. I mean yes.. I could see LHO having it after the duck. However, there is no real need for him to have it to make our contract.

Whether he does or does not have the 8 is not particularly relevant to the line, perhaps. However, assume the start of the King. If RHO has the 8 and plays it, then I'm 100% positive he has A8 doubleton, or that he is falsecarding from A8x. So, I'm not going to "believe" the 8 from RHO. Sure, he should not have A8x. However, I think it to be more likely that he catches up and falsecards than that he was sleeping with A108.

The point, though, was that I suspect nonetheless that LHO does have these cards.

BTW -- was the 10x actually 108? Just curious...

[han]

It seems to me that gnasher's line (leading the king or jack, and then lead a club to the queen) loses against only 3 holdings (LHO with 43, 53 or 54) while low to the queen immediately loses against 4 (any 10-doubleton).

Gnasher came to the conclusion that his line was gibberish but I don't get it yet.

[Winstonm]

han, on Apr 26 2008, 07:00 PM, said:

It seems to me that gnasher's line (leading the king or jack, and then lead a club to the queen) loses against only 3 holdings (LHO with 43, 53 or 54) while low to the queen immediately loses against 4 (any 10-doubleton).

Gnasher came to the conclusion that his line was gibberish but I don't get it yet.

I'll speak more slowly, this time.

Here
are
the
missing
cards.


A106543 and it is known that RHO holds the Ace.

Out of the possible doubletons, here are LHO's possible holdings:
65, 64, 63, 54, 53, 43 = 6
103, 104, 105, 106 = 4

6>4

4 sucks.

The end.

[pclayton]

gnasher, on Apr 26 2008, 03:33 PM, said:

pclayton, on Apr 27 2008, 12:19 AM, said:

Now the moment of glory, a club to the queen. If RHO did have ATxx, she was toast. She fired back a low club and I blew to the 10x. My play still has 3:2 odds.

I think it's 7:3 against.

Why? RHO is marked with the A, so there are 5 club spots, or which RHO has 3 and LHO 2. Thus 3:2.

[han]

Winstonm, on Apr 26 2008, 07:25 PM, said:

han, on Apr 26 2008, 07:00 PM, said:

It seems to me that gnasher's line (leading the king or jack, and then lead a club to the queen) loses against only 3 holdings (LHO with 43, 53 or 54) while low to the queen immediately loses against 4 (any 10-doubleton).

Gnasher came to the conclusion that his line was gibberish but I don't get it yet.

I'll speak more slowly, this time.

Here
are
the
missing
cards.


A106543 and it is known that RHO holds the Ace.

Out of the possible doubletons, here are LHO's possible holdings:
65, 64, 63, 54, 53, 43 = 6
103, 104, 105, 106 = 4

6>4

4 sucks.

The end.

What you need to do is read more slowly.

First of all, you are not missing A106543, you are missing A108543. This is relevant.

Second, I never disputed that Phil's line works in 6 out of 10 cases. That is correct. My point was that gnasher's line works in 7 out of 10 cases. That is more.

[Winstonm]

I hate it when Han is right and I am wrong.

However, as I did not look closely enough at the spot cards, I have to admit that the 7 in dummy and the 6 in declarer's hand make the 8 a key card.

Therefore, Han and Gnasher are right and I am wrong.

And that REALLY sucks.

[gnasher]

han, on Apr 27 2008, 01:00 AM, said:

Gnasher came to the conclusion that his line was gibberish but I don't get it yet.

The gibberish was my assertion that it would guarantee the contract. Winston wasn't the only one who was having trouble reading the club spots.

I seem to have followed it up with some more nonsense about the relative probabilities of success. I agree with the ratio of 7:6.

[kenrexford]

This mathematics debate is weird.

6:4? 7:6? 2:3? 6:4?

How about zero chance that RHO ducks the heart with the A10 of clubs? Is that so tricky?

Even if you think that random idiots might not think this through (get a different entry next time -- you are in the wrong event!!!), I would assume that some would. That screws with the math fairly substantially.

[Winstonm]

Ken, how about with these holdings? Wouldn't the heart duck be required?

East Q5, Axx, QJx, A10xxx
South: Axxx, K10, AK10x, K8x

[kenrexford]

Winstonm, on Apr 27 2008, 11:40 AM, said:

Ken, how about with these holdings? Wouldn't the heart duck be required?

East Q5, Axx, QJx, A10xxx
South: Axxx, K10, AK10x, K8x

For that situation to be occurring (I'm assuming that South actually has Kxxx in spades), LHO must have:

♠J109xx ♥Jxx ♦xxx ♣Jx

This makes the small spade lead beyond bizarre.

Plus, Declarer would not pursue an impossible line in hearts lacking any entries, IMO. It looks to me like Opener would force the diamond split at trick three, cash the third spade, cash the heart King (which must be ducked lest a second entry be generated for a diamond hook), cash the club King (for the same reason), and then lead the heart 10, ducked all around. Six tricks so far in the bag, with a seventh if he just cashes the top diamond. However, Declarer can then exit clubs to throw his RHO in for a repeated diamond hook.

[gnasher]

This is the layout that Ken and Winston are talking about:

---

Ken's suggestion is to win the second spade, lead a diamond to the J and A, and cash ♠K. So far, so good.

The next three tricks are ♥K ducked, ♣K ducked and ♥10 ducked, but I think East can afford to take any of these three tricks.

If he takes ♥K, his simplest defence is to play another heart (a diamond might be OK too, but it's a bit messy); if he ducks ♥K but takes ♣K, he has to play a club back; having ducked ♥K and ♣K, he can take ♥10 and exit with a diamond.

Edit: I've changed my mind about taking ♥K and playing another one. Declarer wins the 10 and plays diamonds from the top. East can unblock to avoid being endplayed, but declarer then plays a clubs to the nine.

This post has been edited by gnasher: 2008-April-27, 15:24

[Winstonm]

gnasher, on Apr 27 2008, 04:14 PM, said:

This is the layout that Ken and Winston are talking about:

---

Ken's suggestion is to win the second spade, lead a diamond to the J and A, and cash ♠K. So far, so good.

The next three tricks are ♥K ducked, ♣K ducked and ♥10 ducked, but I think East can afford to take any of these three tricks.

If he takes ♥K, his simplest defence is to play another heart (a diamond might be OK too, but it's a bit messy); if he ducks ♥K but takes ♣K, he has to play a club back; having ducked ♥K and ♣K, he can take ♥10 and exit with a diamond.

gnasher,

The line of play I am considering is spade ducked and returned, then heart to King and theb the 10 won by East, who can only exit now with the diamond Q. Declarer wins and leads a low club to the 9 (or Q if West plays the Jack).

I could be wrong, here, but I believe you must duck the heart 10 to leave declarer trapped in hand and having to start the suits himself.