[Fluffy]

WTP?


seriously, between showing 5-4 GF with 3♥ and balanced 18-20 or alike with 2NT I'd just show strong balanced. But I don't have this problem.

[joshs]

hrothgar, on Jan 18 2008, 08:48 AM, said:

I think that this is a very rough one playing 2/1.

I'm torn between two bids that I consider deeply flawed: 2♥ and 2N

2♥ is wrong about strength, however, I think that its less wrong than 3♥. 2♥ also has the benefit that it leaves 3♣ and 3♦ in play, while still providing partner with enough room to show a three card limit raise or bid a natural 2N. If partner does corrrect to 2♠, I have enough strength to make a same try. We will end up in 3N if partner has 2 Spades and a 8-9 count. We can intelligently decide between 3♠ and 4♠ is partner has three card support and less than a constructive raise.

2♥ could go very wrong if partner has a so-so hand with 4 card support. We'll rest in 2♥ when 4♥ will make easily. Furthermore, if partner rebids 3m, we won't be able to make an intelligent decision between pass and 3N. (3m shows a wide of range). 2NT will obviously work a lot better in these cases.

Personally, I think that its more likely that partner has a long minor rather than 4 card Heart support.

I'm going to rebid 2NT which I consider Natural Non Forcing without special agreement.

Maybe you missed a card?
Range of 2H=11-18ish
Range of 3H=19-21ish

It would be hard to convince me that a 19 count (and one with a 5 card suit and 3 aces) is closer to a 2H bid then a 3H bid.

lets do some tests:
a. is it in the range of 2H or 3H (answer: 3H)
b. is is it closer to the mean hand for the 2H or 3H bid? (mean for 2H is under 14, for 3H is slightly less than 20)
c. What is the probability of making game opposite hands that pass 2H?

Well considering that x Kxxxx Kxx xxxx should pass 2H and slam is very good, I think not being able to make game is a bit pessamistic.... You have play for game opposite a single K and a fit! And Kx of spades and out means that 3N is not hopeless and partner has more then that...

As to 2N non-forcing. if you don't think this hand should game force, isn't it at least worth 20? Isn't opening 2N (not my choice) better than opening 1S and rebidding a non-forcing 2N.


I know that 1S-1N-3H is always an awkward auction since there is little room below 3N but, bidding 2 instead really does not solve the bidding problems in any way.

[hrothgar]

joshs, on Jan 18 2008, 05:17 PM, said:

Maybe you missed a card?
Range of 2H=11-18ish
Range of 3H=19-21ish

It would be hard to convince me that a 19 count (and one with a 5 card suit and 3 aces) is closer to a 2H bid then a 3H bid.

lets do some tests:
a. is it in the range of 2H or 3H (answer: 3H)
b. is is it closer to the mean hand for the 2H or 3H bid? (mean for 2H is under 14, for 3H is slightly less than 20)
c. What is the probability of making game opposite hands that pass 2H?

Josh:

I don't think that you are framing the discussion correctly...

I agree that a 2♥ rebid is going to leave you very badly placed if responder has 4+ Hearts. Recall these words from my original post

Quote

2♥ could go very wrong if partner has a so-so hand with 4 card support. We'll rest in 2♥ when 4♥ will make easily

However, any cost benefit analysis needs to consider the frequency with which partner is going to have 4 card Heart support. I don't think its going to be all that frequent after a forcing NT response. I suspect that partner is going to table 1=3=5-4 or a 6+ minor or some such.

[cafie]

several responses make reference to gazilli ..... please detail gazilli..... tyvm

[dake50]

3H puts partner on page. 3NT needs minor quacks; else 4S even on SQx or 4H on HQxx as worst of evils.

[jdonn]

dake50, on Jan 19 2008, 12:00 PM, said:

3H puts partner on page. 3NT needs minor quacks; else 4S even on SQx or 4H on HQxx as worst of evils.

I usually look for the bid that gets me the worst of evils as well.

[mikestar]

I think that 2NT is just not viable if it is not forcing. If you don't want to bid 3♥ (which may work out badly if partner has no stoppers and three-card heart support) go ahead and give up on hearts and shoot out 3NT.

In any case, natural bidding simply can't handle this type of hand as well as Big Club or Gazilli.