[Apollo81]

I actually had previously posted this, but as an IMPs problem

This time it's MPs, unfavorable

Jxxxx
QJ10x
AJx
A

p-(3♦)-?

[foo]

GOP is expected to hold ~10 1/4 HCP here. We've got to bid.

OTOH, the hand is not good enough for 4D! showing both Majors.

A prosaic 3S by me.

[awm]

Pass.

Partner is a passed hand, and we are red. It will be very easy for LHO to double us for 200 or 500 if partner has a poor hand and/or a moderate number of diamonds. If we can make three of a major (i.e. partner has a decent hand) he may well bid four of a major, especially with a diamond holding like xxx (which seems good opposite a double but is actually bad). Occasionally partner bids clubs, which is an obvious disaster red at MPs. If partner has a big fit for me and a weak-ish hand, it's true that we might make something, but opponents probably make something also and at these colors we don't want to sacrifice.

The only time bidding or doubling seem really likely to win is when it gets us to game opposite a partner with diamond singleton and some cards. But this partner hand is going to balance when 3♦ passes to him anyway.

I'll admit that it could be right to bid if partner was not a passed hand, or if we were non-vulnerable.

[pclayton]

foo, on Jan 7 2008, 10:51 AM, said:

GOP is expected to hold ~10 1/4 HCP here. We've got to bid.

OTOH, the hand is not good enough for 4D! showing both Majors.

A prosaic 3S by me.

LOL, pard is a passed hand. How are you coming up with this calculation?

Oh, I see, we have 13, and RHO has 6 or 7, leaving 20 or 21 outstanding. Therefore, pard has an 'average' of 10.25, right? No.

The 21 points can be distributed from anything from 0 for pard and 21 with LHO. We know that pard can hold a maximum of 11 for his initial pass, so we already know LHO is essentially guaranteed more than pard.

I'll go along with you on the 21 outstanding. Since pard has already passed, he can have between 0 and 11. An 11 is more likely than a zero count, so I'd guess the median of what pard can hold is closer to about 7 or 8, especially since there are many 11's he'd open.

This is a very clear pass. Our suits suck and our hand is defensively oriented.

[655321]

foo, on Jan 7 2008, 01:51 PM, said:

GOP is expected to hold ~10 1/4 HCP here.  We've got to bid.

OTOH, the hand is not good enough for 4D! showing both Majors.

A prosaic 3S by me.

Here is a thought.

We could Pass, because with ♦ length pass is completely normal and correct, then partner can look at his hand, count his 10 1/4 HCP, look at his ♦ length, and make a decision about reopening.

Novel idea, I know.

[Echognome]

pclayton, on Jan 7 2008, 11:38 AM, said:

LOL, pard is a passed hand. How are you coming up with this calculation?

Oh, I see, we have 13, and RHO has 6 or 7, leaving 20 or 21 outstanding. Therefore, pard has an 'average' of 10.25, right? No.

The 21 points can be distributed from anything from 0 for pard and 21 with LHO. We know that pard can hold a maximum of 11 for his initial pass, so we already know LHO is essentially guaranteed more than pard.

I'll go along with you on the 21 outstanding. Since pard has already passed, he can have between 0 and 11. An 11 is more likely than a zero count, so I'd guess the median of what pard can hold is closer to about 7 or 8, especially since there are many 11's he'd open.

This is a very clear pass. Our suits suck and our hand is defensively oriented.

If X is the number of hcp, then:

E[X | X < 12] = 7.6

That is to say, our expected number of high card points, given that we have less than 12 is approximately 7.6

So your "closer to 7 or 8" seems spot on.

[foo]

I'll not argue about the HCP. You should still bid. Expecially at MP.

13 + 7.6 is still 21+, and we have 9 cards in S+H.

One thing that definitely =has= changed is the expectation that GOP has Major suit length. That has gone up considerably since 10/13 of the ♦'s are now accounted for.

Apriori =without any bidding=, GOP is ~50/50 to hold 3+S when we hold 5.
Those odds have just gotten better.
Ditto the odds We have a ♥ fit or even a double fit in S+H.

...and We rate to own the hand.

3D makes and 3S makes => Bid 3S
3D makes and 3S doesn't => Bid 3S
3D doesn't, 3S makes => Bid 3S or X
neither 2D nor 3S makes => Defend 3D, preferably X'd

If I can't take a bid with 9 cards in the Majors, there is !no! way CHO should balance with 10 HCP. If I don't take action, We are nearly 100% to be defending 3D since this looks like a partscore board.

Defending 3D does not look odds on for a good score.
So you bid 3S or X.

Since I can't stand Advancer bidding ♣'s, I'm bidding 3S.

[MFA]

Pass, wtp?

[CSGibson]

foo, on Jan 7 2008, 12:20 PM, said:

I'll not argue about the HCP. You should still bid. Expecially at MP.

13 + 7.6 is still 21+, and we have 9 cards in S+H.

One thing that definitely =has= changed is the expectation that GOP has Major suit length. That has gone up considerably since 10/13 of the ♦'s are now accounted for.

Apriori =without any bidding=, GOP is ~50/50 to hold 3+S when we hold 5.
Those odds have just gotten better.
Ditto the odds We have a ♥ fit or even a double fit in S+H.

...and We rate to own the hand.

3D makes and 3S makes => Bid 3S
3D makes and 3S doesn't => Bid 3S
3D doesn't, 3S makes => Bid 3S or X
neither 2D nor 3S makes => Defend 3D, preferably X'd

If I can't take a bid with 9 cards in the Majors, there is !no! way CHO should balance with 10 HCP. If I don't take action, We are nearly 100% to be defending 3D since this looks like a partscore board.

Defending 3D does not look odds on for a good score.
So you bid 3S or X.

Since I can't stand Advancer bidding ♣'s, I'm bidding 3S.

Here's the problem with bidding (and it's not the only one, of course): If partner has a fit, he's going to bid on and you'll go down. If partner doesn't have a fit with the suit you guess to bid, your still going down, only this time you are doubled. Not only that, but you are giving your opponent on your left, who was probably dealt the best hand at the table but who also probably doesn't have a fit for his partner, many more options for a plus, big or little.

The only way to be in 3 of a major when you belong there is to pass and trust partner to balance when it's right.

[CSGibson]

Plus I cannot stand an abhorrent 3 level overcall on Jxxxx. What rubbish! No respectable player will overcall at the 2 level with that trash, much less the 3 level. You're asking - no, begging - for them to get 500 points off you when they don't have a thing their way. And when it does go pass - 3♦ - 3♠ - X-Pass-Pass, are you bidding 4 hearts and guessing again?

Bidding is trash.

[the hog]

Clear cut pass for me. I agree with the above post that bidding 3S on Jxxxx makes we want to be sick.

[foo]

LOL. I'll be taking careful note of any posts in the future advocating "assumed fit" methods or weak openings by those who are saying "Bidding here is not Bridge!"

Somehow issues like Suit Quality don't matter nearly as much to them when they are advocating their pet methods.

The logic is very similar for bidding here. Except:
1= The odds of Us owning the hand are higher.
2= The odds of Us having a fit are higher.

...and !no!, a passed hand partner is not going to blythely raise us, let alone bid game, just because we make a simple overcall. They should know we are prebalancing and not hang Us.

Yet another circumstance for a well done and objective simulation.

[CSGibson]

Why should they assume you are prebalancing? Wouldn't you bid 3 spades on a much more reasonable KQxxxx AQx xx Ax? You have to have some standards for bidding here, especially when you don't have diamond shortness. The best and safest way to get to 3 of your major, where you belong if it truly is your hand, is to pass now and let partner balance. Otherwise how is partner to know whether his hand with Axx of spades and another useful card has a decent play for game?

Also the idea of using assumed fit methods are only useful if you make a flexible call. 3 spades is not flexible. You are not getting to your 9 card heart fit when you bid 3 spades. You are playing in whatever spade suit your partner has, because partner will assume that you will do something normal like PASS THIS CRAP HAND when you have it to give your side a chance to go plus.

[the hog]

Foo I can't be bothered arguing as I have work to do, but your comment about "assumed fit methods or weak openings", has absolutely nothing to do with this hand. The hand is defensive in nature - look at your H cards; look at your D holding. The S suit that you want to bid at the 3 level is crap. A X is a better bid than 3S.

Further to comment that partner won't raise with support because we are pre-balancing is from pixie land. So what would you do with a good hand and say 6S? Rhetorical question, I guess you would also bid 3S, and now your partner is not allowed to raise because you are pre-balancing? Give me a break!

Edit - sorry CS, you posted just before I did.

[jdonn]

Agree with wtp pass. Also agree with Hog that if I absolutely must bid I choose double. There is precisely a 0.00% chance (allowing for rounding error) that I will ever overcall Jxxxx on the 3 level vul.

One thing you are ignoring Foo. When partner is on the high end of whatever range he holds, there is a chance he will double or bid back in. In fact this is much more likely on the hands where bidding by us now would be successful. Partner's average hcp on hands he is passing out, I'm going to take a shot in the dark is about 6.

[jdonn]

Jlall, on Jan 8 2008, 03:03 AM, said:

jdonn, on Jan 8 2008, 02:28 AM, said:

There is precisely a 0.00% chance (allowing for rounding error) that I will ever overcall Jxxxx on the 3 level vul.

3C on your right you have x Jxxxx AKQx AKx, you bid...?

Obv 3NT

[miguelm]

I Pass just because I don't have anything to bid.... usually, that is a good enough reason

[helene_t]

Pass, wtp?

[Apollo81]

a grand life master in my area suggested acting over 3♦ was "obvious"

does that sway anyone's opinion?