[foo]

Josh,

Absolutely my partners sometimes raise 3S to 4S. But if they are a passed hand, they know =I've= bid taking that into account and the old "Subtract a K from my hand and =then= consider how to Advance" rule comes into play.

Simulations can only predict things double dummy, and they only make overall accurate predictions if enough boards are simulated and in proper proportion to their statistical chance of occurring. 11 boards involving no statistical weighting and some highly unusual suit layouts are suspect as to how overall statistically valid they are. So are boards that involve unusual HCP ranges for the bids involved.

The odds I was referring to are not apriori. For instance, my POV as to the odds of a Major suit or 2x Major suit fit are aposteri.

They are based on the fact that we can place ~10 of the ♦'s as not being in GOP's hand +and+ on what we are holding when it is time to decide on overcalling or not. We are =5431 when LHO has shown ~7 ♦'s. That greatly increases the odds of Us having at least one Major suit fit. Also, the (3D) bid in 1st or 2nd will usually deny a 4cM.

Finally, if GOP has ♠'s, the single most likely holding for them to have if HHx.

[helene_t]

foo, on Jan 9 2008, 11:03 AM, said:

Absolutely my partners sometimes raise 3S to 4S.  But if they are a passed hand, they know =I've= bid taking that into account and the old "Subtract a K from my hand and =then= consider how to Advance" rule comes into play.

Lol. The rules says you can balance with a king less than you need to bid in direct seat.

If anything, the fact that p is a passed hand should make you bid more conservatively over a preempt since you don't need to pre-protect p's awkward 13-count and because p can balance slightly more aggressively having passed originally.

Quote

Simulations can only predict things double dummy

The simulations showed some hands, you can analyze them single dummy if you want.

Quote

11 boards involving no statistical weighting and some highly unusual suit layouts

You can weight them as you want but that makes no sense. And as for the unusual suit layouts ... well you do the simulations to find out how the layouts typically are, the simulations were not biased with respect to suit layouts.

jdonn said:

risking the lesser experienced forum users thinking you actually know what you are talking about?

No worries.

[foo]

helene_t, on Jan 9 2008, 04:09 AM, said:

foo, on Jan 9 2008, 11:03 AM, said:

Absolutely my partners sometimes raise 3S to 4S.  But if they are a passed hand, they know =I've= bid taking that into account and the old "Subtract a K from my hand and =then= consider how to Advance" rule comes into play.

Lol. The rules says you can balance with a king less than you need to bid in direct seat.

If anything, the fact that p is a passed hand should make you bid more conservatively over a preempt since you don't need to pre-protect p's awkward 13-count and because p can balance slightly more aggressively having passed originally.

first, let's dispense calling any of this being based on "rules". The laws, rules, regulations etc of Bridge have nothing to do with whether we can or should bid here.

second, the overcall and balancing situations are not as simple as any simple "rule". Who has Major suit length =matters=. Especially contesting partscores at MPs.

third, once partner passes, they have put out a warning light that they are likely to continue to pass unless
a= they had a marginal pass close to a 1st or 2nd chair opening.
b= the subsequent auction gives them a reason to bid.

Having passed initially, just exactly what justification are you expecting most hands with likely few major suit cards to be balancing with here?

Thus after GOP's initial pass, Overcaller is essentially in a prebalance situation. Especially if the hand rates to be a partscore.

...and passer has to be very careful not to "hang" Overcaller for prebalancing.

[foo]

jdonn, on Jan 9 2008, 03:52 AM, said:

Foo, do you really believe you are an advanced/expert player who is qualified to participate in discussions with other advanced/expert players and speak with authority, risking the lesser experienced forum users thinking you actually know what you are talking about?

Being provably right matters more than all the rhetoric, claims or insults in the world.

So let's dispense with the personal attacks and concentrate on finding the provable truth. That will benefit everyone, from novice to expert.

[gwnn]

wtf, prebalancing after p-3♦-?

wtf? i've written many silly stuff on these forums (sorry everyone), but this certainly tops every single one of them

prebalancing after p-3♦-?, unfavorable at MP.

[hrothgar]

foo, on Jan 9 2008, 11:25 AM, said:

To makes the results statistically valid, the examples need to be weighted to their chances of occuring. Far more 32 and 31 ♠ breaks are going to occur than 50 or 51 ♠ breaks given the bidding and S's hand! Some of the ♥ holdings are also in need of serious weighing. The odds of NS having a 7-8 card fit are not well represented in these examples.

No, No, and, once again, No

1. There is no hard and fast rule that says that you need to deliberately weight a sample to achieve accurate results. In general a large sample size is adequate protection.

2. You're complete wrong about the odds of 3-2/3-2 breaks

I generated a very simple script using Hans van Stavern's Dealer. I'm attaching a copy of the script file, along with the output. Please note that this sim is specially examining the case in which N/S have an 8 card Spade fit. (I assigned 3 Spades to South because this is the most common holding)

predeal

north SJ5432, HQJT9, DAJT, C5
south SAKQ
west D8765432

action

frequency (spades(west), 0, 5)

The output is rather telling. a 4-1 trump break is by far the most common outcome. A 5-0 split is more likely than either a 3-2 or 2-3.

0 2835138 28.35%
1 4473812 44.74%
2 2235198 22.35%
3 426411 4.26%
4 28924 0.29%
5 517 0.01%

Finally, with 10 samples, one would expect North would hold

2 hands with doubleton Spade support and
3 hands with three card trump support

Here we're looking at 11 samples and we see

3 hands with doubleton Spade support and
4 hands with triple spade support

There are slightly too many hands with short trump, but its not all that out of whack.

[TheoKole]

Pass

Theo