[Trumpace]

You are South and reach 6S with E/W passing throughout. Only time E took some time was when he was (probably) contemplating a double of 6C by North.

West leads the club 5, which for the purposes of this problem, you can assume is a singleton.

E/W are intermediate players.

You see:

Scoring: Rubber

Contract 6S.
Lead ♣5.

---

The tricks go as follows:

1) C5, CA, C6, C3
2) SJ, SQ, SA, S4
3) S2, S5, ST, D4
4) S3, D7, SK, S9
5) DA, D2, C2, D9
6) HA, H3, H2, H4
7) HK, H7, H5, H6
8) HT, H8, ?

Decision time. Finesse or drop?

As usual, ADV/+ please hide your answers. If you think the hand should be played differently etc, please feel free to point out.

[hrothgar]

Trumpace, on Dec 15 2007, 12:04 AM, said:

You are South and reach 6S with E/W passing throughout. Only time E took some time was when he was (probably) contemplating a double of 6C by North.

West leads the club 5, which for the purposes of this problem, you can assume is a singleton.

E/W are intermediate players.

You see:

Scoring: Rubber

Contract 6S.
Lead ♣5.

---

The tricks go as follows:

1) C5, CA, C6, C3
2) SJ, SQ, SA, S4
3) S2, S5, ST, D4
4) S3, D7, SK, S9
5) DA, D2, C2, D9
6) HA, H3, H2, H4
7) HK, H7, H5, H6
8) HT, H8, ?

Decision time. Finesse or drop?

As usual, ADV/+ please hide your answers. If you think the hand should be played differently etc, please feel free to point out.

You're missing a key part of the analysis:

Once East tanks over 6♣, the first thing that you do is call the director so you can bar a club lead.

[Trumpace]

hrothgar, on Dec 14 2007, 04:14 PM, said:

You're missing a key part of the analysis:

Once East tanks over 6♣, the first thing that you do is call the director so you can bar a club lead.

Err... this was on BBO in MBC, so you have no director available . Anyway, the hand is probably interesting on a non-club lead too.

[jdonn]

hrothgar, on Dec 14 2007, 04:14 PM, said:

You're missing a key part of the analysis:

Once East tanks over 6♣, the first thing that you do is call the director so you can bar a club lead.

Well I'm sure you know the tank wouldn't 'bar' the lead. In fact as long as west doesn't have Qxx of trumps or something, they will probably allow a singleton club lead (short of him having KQJ of diamonds on the side) as it's too obvious to avoid.

[jtfanclub]

God, these are a pain to read.

Cards played: W: ♠459 ♥73 ♦2 ♣5
Cards played: E: ♠Q ♥64 ♦974 ♣6

---

I don't see the answer, sorry.

[Echognome]

Spoiler

The most likely suit where they will give true count is in diamonds. So if they are playing standard count, I'm going to put East on 1=3=5=4 and play for the drop. If they are playing upside down count, then I'm going to put East on a 1=2=6=4 and play for the finesse.

Note that the opponents cannot always give false signals without consequences. They will often need to know what cards to keep in the endgame. It's not 100% reliable because some people will just throw away any cards, but it's the clue I'm going to go with.

[goobers]

I guess finesse, E probably has KJxx of clubs, and I'll assume D9 is count, showing 6. They have 11 diamonds, and neither player bid, so assuming this is a true count card, it sounds like E has the diamond length.

[Trumpace]

jtfanclub, on Dec 14 2007, 04:48 PM, said:

God, these are a pain to read.

Sorry, will try to do better next time.

As for the puzzle...

I believe we should play for the drop, given that E/W are intermediate players.

Spoiler

♣
I don't think E will be giving count (debatable of course, your choice...). I just think 4,7,9 are the lowest 3 cards of his diamond holding. Which gives 2,3,6,8 with W and the odds now favour the drop.

This shows that when you discard, you should not always start with the lowest. Randomization can be a good thing.
♣

Anyway, sorry if this was not very interesting or instructive. I thought it might be an instructive hand...

[jtfanclub]

Trumpace, on Dec 14 2007, 05:44 PM, said:

Anyway, sorry if this was not very interesting or instructive. I thought it might be an instructive hand...

You only posted it an hour and a half ago (before your last reply), sheesh. Just because I couldn't figure it out doesn't mean that nobody else will.

(I prefer the format where West is always to the left on a trick, with the card led bolded. Personal preference, but it means I can read down the column to see what a player has played).

[Trumpace]

jtfanclub, on Dec 14 2007, 07:13 PM, said:

Trumpace, on Dec 14 2007, 05:44 PM, said:

Anyway, sorry if this was not very interesting or instructive. I thought it might be an instructive hand...

You only posted it an hour and a half ago (before your last reply), sheesh. Just because I couldn't figure it out doesn't mean that nobody else will.

Did you forget a smiley?

Anyway, since the right play on this is debatable (depends on what you think opps are doing) I just added what I thought.

[Wackojack]

Given that East was an intermediate player:

[HIDDEN]. If East holds the ♥Q, will have started with 5 diamonds. It is unlikely that East would not seem under pressure with the last discard with 2 high honours remaining. In fact East might have discarded a club instead. One must conclude therefore East that does not hold the ♥Q and started with 6 diamonds. Probably East lazily discarded low upwards in diamonds with any 3 remaining out of KQJ10.