[han]

This was the auction at my table, I was sitting south:

Scoring: IMP

2D - (3C) - 5D - (p)
p - (dbL) - Rdbl - all pass

---

West leads the heart 3. When you pull trumps west will follow once. When you ruff your heart, west follows with the queen.

Good luck.

[whereagles]

Hum.. LHO seems to have either 3316 or 2416, with a tendency to the 1st.

In the 2nd case it's a simple matter to eliminate clubs and duck a spade 2nd round.

In the 1st case you have to pull all trumps and, in the final one, LHO will have to drop a spade (and you setup spades) or a club (and you play a club up).

Think I'll stick to the 1st case, hoping I didn't misanalyse.. lol.

[ArtK78]

Seems reasonable.

But the main comment is, why in the world would North redouble? That is quite a call.

[drinbrasil]

whereagles, on Oct 18 2007, 03:36 PM, said:

Hum.. LHO seems to have either 3316 or 2416, with a tendency to the 1st.

In the 2nd case it's a simple matter to eliminate clubs and duck a spade 2nd round.

In the 1st case you have to pull all trumps and, in the final one, LHO will have to drop a spade (and you setup spades) or a club (and you play a club up).

Think I'll stick to the 1st case, hoping I didn't misanalyse.. lol.

why after you pull all trumps (after 7 tricks) LHO cant be with 2-1-0-3 and 2 aces plus winner ♥? i think i misread your line.

at first look seems you need play for Ax of spades to win this one

[cherdano]

We can't guess the count in hearts from the spot cards on the first two heart tricks? 3/ 5 leads I assume?

[pclayton]

LHO really needs the ♠A for the overcall, but I'll reserve judgment if LHO turns up with 7 clubs (addended: LHO has to have the ♠A for the double)

My first impulse was to play: ♥A, ♦, ruff heart, ♦, ♣. I'm guessing LHO pops and returns a club. I'll ruff a club getting a count. However, I don't know if the end position below functions if I try this.

LHO's heart 3 is probably from Qx3, but its possible its from Qx32 (addended: there is an equal number of these)

Can I make the hand if LHO has A-3rd of spades? Only if: RHO has JT tight or if RHO has Jx and doesn't unblock.

Looking deeper:

Lets say that LHO is inferred to be 3=3=1=6. Run all of your trump but 1. Nuno has the right idea.

LHO is triple squeezed on the next-to-last trump and needs to ditch the last heart. If he saves a heart, play the black suit he has unguarded. Assuming LHO does pitch the heart, play the last diamond:

---

Superficially, we pitch the suit from dummy that LHO doesn't pitch and lead the black suit LHO has unguarded.

This really gets complicated, but there's some variations. LHO could unblock BOTH top clubs in the end and create an entry for RHO to cash a heart.

I need to exit this - but play with some of the endings - it gets VERY interesting.

[drinbrasil]

nice line pcclayton, only if he started with 2spades (2-4-1-6) you will fail because he will picth clubs and you spades from dummy.

[pclayton]

drinbrasil, on Oct 18 2007, 09:57 AM, said:

nice line pcclayton, only if he started with 2spades (2-4-1-6) you will fail because he will picth clubs and you spades from dummy.

Yes, this is why I said "if you infer LHO is 3=3=1=6"

[bid_em_up]

Given that LHO must have the spade Ace, let him pitch both of his spades. I will be completely happy.

[han]

Yes, so if you think west is 3316 you play for the squeeze without the count, if west is 2416 you don't. Is there any way to combine these two lines?

Without extra information 2416 is almost twice as likely as 3316 (missing 5 spades and 10 hearts) but the heart 3 and Q might help. The opponents indeed lead 3/5, what does this suggest? The 2 doesn't appear but the opponents are not awful.

LHO actually made a deceptive lead, I don't think anybody will guess her heart holding but it was a great hand to think about.

[han]

whereagles, on Oct 18 2007, 10:36 AM, said:

Hum.. LHO seems to have either 3316 or 2416, with a tendency to the 1st.

Why a tendency to the 1st, do you think LHO would have bid differently with 2416? They were not playing raptor or anything like that. My odds were actually wrong because you know LHO has the spade ace. That makes it 14 to 12 in favor of 2416 I believe.

[Fluffy]

Why didn't anyone think of 2317?

[pclayton]

Doesn't anyone see the variation in my 6 card diagram and why this is such an interesting hand?

[han]

What do you mean Phil?

[whereagles]

Hannie, on Oct 18 2007, 08:21 PM, said:

whereagles, on Oct 18 2007, 10:36 AM, said:

Hum.. LHO seems to have either 3316 or 2416, with a tendency to the 1st.

Why a tendency to the 1st, do you think LHO would have bid differently with 2416? They were not playing raptor or anything like that. My odds were actually wrong because you know LHO has the spade ace. That makes it 14 to 12 in favor of 2416 I believe.

Because LHO is more likely to play the Q from an original Qxx on 2nd round of hearts instead of Q from Qxxx.

Don't ask me why. It's just a feeling Just tell me if I went down or up.. lol.

If he was just being a joker and led x from an original Qx, then he's probably 3217 and I think the squeeze without the count still works.

[pclayton]

Hannie, on Oct 18 2007, 07:30 PM, said:

What do you mean Phil?

Play around with some variations and have LHO jettison the ♣A....

[Fluffy]

Not sure if you refered tome Phil, but 7321 seems relevant when people start to calculate the odds of 6421 vs 6331.

[han]

West had AJx KQ3 x AQJxxx, congrats to those who guessed that holding.

[pclayton]

Hannie, on Oct 19 2007, 01:35 PM, said:

West had AJx KQ3 x AQJxxx, congrats to those who guessed that holding.

Boy I'd be toast on this hand.

When I see the ♥3, followed by the ♥Q, then the K (and never saw the 2) I would assume LHO made an odd lead from KQ32, and play LHO for a 2=4=1=6