[Echognome]

Scoring: IMP

(P) - 2♣ - (3♣) - 3♠
(P) - 6NT - All Pass

---

The opening lead is ♠6. You win in hand and lead a top heart expecting that you are about to claim (well bid!). However, West discards a club on this.

What's your plan now?

P.S. I made a stupid mistake on this by playing too fast and was lucky it didn't cost because of a later defensive mistake. Don't make the same mistake I did.

[Trumpace]

Assuming LHO holds ♦K for overcall...

Cash AKQJ of hearts, discarding diamonds.

Now over to dummy using SQ and cash spades. discarding 2 hearts a club and then the heart 9 depending on RHO's discard.

coming down to
_
_
xx
8

_
_
AQ
K

Read end position, either exit with club or diamond to A dropping K.

[cherdano]

It seems right to come down to this end position, but you still have to guess whether to play LHO for the K or RHO. I don't think the overcall says anything about LHO having the K, rather to the contrary.

[han]

Yeah, I said the same to Echo. The overcall doesn't suggest the diamond king but the lead does.

[mikeh]

spade lead= 99.5428% ♦K... I'm agree with Justin, but:

1) we need to generate discussion, best done by disagreement

2) nothing is 100% sure, not even this statement

[Trumpace]

Agreed, overcall does not promise DK (not sure why it is more of an indication of the contrary though...)

Also is spade lead really = 100% DK?

With LHO holding small diamonds, and small spades, why is diamond a better lead than spade? Isn't spade a "reasonably" passive lead?

[Trumpace]

mikeh, on Aug 22 2007, 05:49 PM, said:

spade lead= 99.5428% ♦K...
<snip>

lol where did you get this figure from?

btw, are you right handed?

[kenrexford]

I think I'm wanting to end up with my last four cards in hand being the following:

♠-- ♥9 ♦AQ ♣K

Same as everyone else.

RHO has the heart 10. If RHO also has the club Ace and diamond Kx, he will feel some pinch on the last spade. If he has the stiff club Ace, he will have to pitch a diamond. If he has junk, he also must pitch a diamond, to create a ruse for me, perhaps.

So, I now pitch the heart nine. LHO pitches also.

Of the remaining six cards for the opponents, one will be that lurking heart 10. So, they have five minor cards, two of which are the diamond King and club Ace. That leaves only three neutral cards.

Obviously, someone must save at least one small diamond, so they have at most one two small clubs left. RHO might have given away the position in diamonds, if he is lazy, but I doubt that.

Playing a diamond, now, wins automatically when RHO started with all three menaces. If I finesse, it also gains when RHO started with the diamond King.

If I lead to the diamond and pop, it gains when LHO gave me a losing option and originally held both minor cards.

If the minors are split, no one has a problem (except when the diamond finesse works.

Playing the club King only gains when LHO elected to stay straight.

It seems, therefore, that the winning play may be a diamond at this point. The problem is in determining whether to pop (catching LHO when he gave me a losing option) or finesse when RHO plays small. That seems like table feel.

However, I would agree that restricted choice favors LHO holding the diamond King.

The big question is whether LHO sees this and realizes that he should go straight as the strangely real losing option play.

[skjaeran]

Agree with Ken about the 4-card ending, but so does everybody, I guess.
I'd like to know west's number of spades, since that might influence my choice in the end game.

[jdonn]

Trumpace, on Aug 22 2007, 06:06 PM, said:

Agreed, overcall does not promise DK (not sure why it is more of an indication of the contrary though...)

Also is spade lead really = 100% DK?

With LHO holding small diamonds, and small spades, why is diamond a better lead than spade? Isn't spade a "reasonably" passive lead?

I totally agree with Justin the spade lead pretty much shows the diamond king, but even if you thought LHO was 50-50 to lead either suit with no honors it would still be clear to play LHO for the diamond king after the spade lead, due to simple restricted choice. With no honors in either, he (by argument) might have led either, with no honors in just one he had no choice.

So if you think west is, say, 90% to lead spades if holding the diamond king, that means it is about 95% he actually holds it. And if Mike thinks it's 99.5428% he would lead spades holding diamond king, it is 99.7714% he holds it after the lead

[cherdano]

jdonn, on Aug 23 2007, 10:50 AM, said:

I totally agree with Justin the spade lead pretty much shows the diamond king, but even if you thought LHO was 50-50 to lead either suit with no honors it would still be clear to play LHO for the diamond king after the spade lead, due to simple restricted choice. With no honors in either, he (by argument) might have led either, with no honors in just one he had no choice.

So if you think west is, say, 90% to lead spades if holding the diamond king, that means it is about 95% he actually holds it. And if Mike thinks it's 99.5428% he would lead spades holding diamond king, it is 99.7714% he holds it after the lead

Not sure what you were trying to compute l but if you think that

• West is 50% likely to hold the diamond king a priori,
  
• will lead a spade 50% of the time with no DK, and
  
• lead a spade 90% of the time when holding DK,

then given the spade lead, the odds are 64.285% that West has the ♦K.

(90% of 50% = 45%, but LHO leads a spade only 70% of the time, and 45% is 64.2% of 70%.)

[jdonn]

cherdano, on Aug 23 2007, 12:12 PM, said:

jdonn, on Aug 23 2007, 10:50 AM, said:

I totally agree with Justin the spade lead pretty much shows the diamond king, but even if you thought LHO was 50-50 to lead either suit with no honors it would still be clear to play LHO for the diamond king after the spade lead, due to simple restricted choice. With no honors in either, he (by argument) might have led either, with no honors in just one he had no choice.

So if you think west is, say, 90% to lead spades if holding the diamond king, that means it is about 95% he actually holds it. And if Mike thinks it's 99.5428% he would lead spades holding diamond king, it is 99.7714% he holds it after the lead

Not sure what you were trying to compute l but if you think that

• West is 50% likely to hold the diamond king a priori,
  
• will lead a spade 50% of the time with no DK, and
  
• lead a spade 90% of the time when holding DK,

then given the spade lead, the odds are 64.285% that West has the ♦K.

(90% of 50% = 45%, but LHO leads a spade only 70% of the time, and 45% is 64.2% of 70%.)

Lol this is why I normally don't do math on here. I can't even see what the heck I was trying to do.

But my first paragraph still holds, I think.

[cherdano]

Yeah sure my computation was essentially quantifying the resctricted-choice odds.

[Trumpace]

Agree with the restricted choice argument.

My main reason for asking was, if it is the case that a spade lead implies 100% DK with LHO, then from small spades and small diamonds (not counting Jxx diamonds), a diamond must be the obvious (100%) lead.

The question was why is that the case? Am i missing something basic there?

[Echognome]

By the way, there was nothing mysterious to this hand. I thought it might be too advanced for BIL. It's a nice little ending with a choice of endplay or drop based on West's discards. Both myself and the fine declarer at the other table read the ending correctly and successfully dropped the now stiff ♦K offside. The only problem is that I had stupidly discarded a club from dummy, so should have been off. Was lucky that the defense let me survive that one.

[Trumpace]

Jlall, on Aug 23 2007, 03:41 PM, said:

Trumpace, on Aug 23 2007, 02:52 PM, said:

Agree with the restricted choice argument.

My main reason for asking was, if it is the case that a spade lead implies 100% DK with LHO, then from small spades and small diamonds (not counting Jxx diamonds), a diamond must be the obvious (100%) lead.

The question was why is that the case? Am i missing something basic there?

The opps bid spades...

Yes..

I thought the auction (and your hand) called for a "passive" lead. Isn't a spade safer than a diamond? It is more likely that pard's honour(s) is in diamonds than spades, no? And if you have xxx spades, and given jump to 6NT, it seems like pard will have no spade honours...

If pards honour is in hearts, then diamond is safer, yes.

Basically, a diamond does not look like 100% to me...

Sorry, if these questions are too dumb.

[kenrexford]

skaeran, on Aug 23 2007, 11:16 AM, said:

Agree with Ken about the 4-card ending, but so does everybody, I guess.

Yeah, but I used more words.