[MFA]

jdonn, on Apr 12 2007, 01:34 AM, said:

Here was the full hand.

Scoring: IMP

S    W    N    E
1♦ 1♥ P 2♥
P 4♥ PPP

---

Though it's not completely trivial, the hand can and probably will be made, essentially by taking a correct view in spades. Meanwhile our side has an easy 300 sacrifice that could win 8 imps.

Hmm, how do you expect to escape for -300 in 5♣? It will be hard to avoid a heart loser.

[jdonn]

MFA, on Apr 12 2007, 09:57 AM, said:

jdonn, on Apr 12 2007, 01:34 AM, said:

Here was the full hand.

Scoring: IMP

S    W    N    E
1♦ 1♥ P 2♥
P 4♥ PPP

---

Though it's not completely trivial, the hand can and probably will be made, essentially by taking a correct view in spades. Meanwhile our side has an easy 300 sacrifice that could win 8 imps.

Hmm, how do you expect to escape for -300 in 5♣? It will be hard to avoid a heart loser.

Well firstly 500 in 5♣ is win 3 imps but anyway

On a club [EDIT: I meant spade] or diamond lead, piece of cake. On a club lead and continuation it is also easy, as either suit you lead toward dummy will lead to success.

Lets say a heart lead. Surely with the strong hand to declarer's right it's best to lead a suit off dummy. A diamond is probably best since you have better spots. If you try a diamond he will certainly play the queen (if he plays low he is too good) and then it's 300. If you try a spade then they can set you 500 by tapping dummy with a heart, and later playing A and a club. I certainly think in practice the odds of just going for 300 are very high, as it takes the best lead, a misguess of what to play at trick 2, and the best continuation all in combination to set you 500.

[FrancesHinden]

I'd have thought the defence are 100% likely to lead ace and a club against 5Cx, which I agree leads to a fairly easy 300 whether you play on diamonds or spades (diamonds looks normal).

But 4H is a delicate enough contract (particularly on a non-diamond lead) that I don't think this hand really proves anything.

Quote

Though it's not completely trivial, the hand can and probably will be made, essentially by taking a correct view in spades....
I was actually west, and had a discussion with south about it after the hand. He thought doubling shows a better hand than he held.

The implication is that you were declarer in 4H. Did you make it?

[jdonn]

FrancesHinden, on Apr 12 2007, 11:23 AM, said:

I'd have thought the defence are 100% likely to lead ace and a club against 5Cx, which I agree leads to a fairly easy 300 whether you play on diamonds or spades (diamonds looks normal).

But 4H is a delicate enough contract (particularly on a non-diamond lead) that I don't think this hand really proves anything.

Quote

Though it's not completely trivial, the hand can and probably will be made, essentially by taking a correct view in spades....
I was actually west, and had a discussion with south about it after the hand. He thought doubling shows a better hand than he held.

The implication is that you were declarer in 4H. Did you make it?

Lol I'll fess up, though it sounds like an excuse.

It was the last hand of a team match with barometer and the result was already decided (we lost by a lot). It went diamond lead to K and A, king of hearts to ace, diamond J to Q, QJ of hearts drawing trumps, and I ran the ten of spades to the jack. Club return, I won the ace and played another spade and when the 9 appeared of course I had a 100% make by winning and running a spade the other way. But I announced to the table that since we were losing so bad I would go for a "pride overtrick" so I finessed (I thought the finesse was more likely to work since I thought RHO had more like KJ in clubs, but of course I would take the safe play to make under normal circumstances.) Going down did little for my pride hehe.

I think said something like "sorry I didn't know rho [a friend of mine] is such a wimp" and he said "wimp?" and that's how the discussion got started.

[Stephen Tu]

Wouldn't drawing just 1 round of trumps and ruffing two minor suit losers be a much better line than having to guess spades? (pitching club if North ruffs in).

[MFA]

jdonn, on Apr 12 2007, 10:54 AM, said:

Lets say a heart lead. Surely with the strong hand to declarer's right it's best to lead a suit off dummy. A diamond is probably best since you have better spots. If you try a diamond he will certainly play the queen (if he plays low he is too good) and then it's 300.

No it's not.
West wins the queen and returns a small trump. -500.

Quote

If you try a spade then they can set you 500 by tapping dummy with a heart, and later playing A and a club.

If you try a spade, it's 800 if west remembers to play the 10.

FrancesHinden:

Quote

I'd have thought the defence are 100% likely to lead ace and a club against 5Cx, which I agree leads to a fairly easy 300 whether you play on diamonds or spades (diamonds looks normal).

East is on lead, and with nothing in dummy's potential diamond suit, how can he lead trumps? Won't happen.

Stephen Tu:

Quote

Wouldn't drawing just 1 round of trumps and ruffing two minor suit losers be a much better line than having to guess spades? (pitching club if North ruffs in).

Yup. When the defense plays diamond&diamond, you are laydown that way. You can also set up a diamond trick with your spots. Shifting to clubs is a much stronger defense.

[willow23]

Tough call but I would pass; I would expect my p to dbl with as little as 6hcp and 4♠. Since partner did not bid, the hand may some freeky distribution. It is not comforting that p may have 4♥ in hand, opps may have control of the other suits,I have to bear a forcing defense and possibly playing at the 3 level in a minor suit. Opps may pick up a +200.

I would pass and let p speak if he can. (pass!)

[Stephen Tu]

Quote

Yup. When the defense plays diamond&diamond, you are laydown that way. You can also set up a diamond trick with your spots. Shifting to clubs is a much stronger defense.

Yeah, I guess it's probably best to play 3 diamonds right away, not play trumps at all, to prevent the club from being removed.

[jdonn]

Stephen Tu, on Apr 12 2007, 01:33 PM, said:

Wouldn't drawing just 1 round of trumps and ruffing two minor suit losers be a much better line than having to guess spades? (pitching club if North ruffs in).

I make no claims to having found the best line, like I said it was gravy at the end of a match we were losing. I don't feel like thinking about it but presuming you are right that only gives more credence to the idea that the opponents really want to be sacrificing here.

[jdonn]

MFA, on Apr 12 2007, 02:23 PM, said:

jdonn, on Apr 12 2007, 10:54 AM, said:

Lets say a heart lead. Surely with the strong hand to declarer's right it's best to lead a suit off dummy. A diamond is probably best since you have better spots. If you try a diamond he will certainly play the queen (if he plays low he is too good) and then it's 300.

No it's not.
West wins the queen and returns a small trump. -500.

Ok I win in dummy and play the king of diamonds, now they make me ruff a heart in dummy? Like I said, they are too good. I guess the sacrifice is gaining a little instead of a lot against a player of your caliber.

I completely agree with Frances as well that a trump lead is likely. East doesn't want cards in diamonds, he wants his partner to have them. And he knows dummy is short in hearts, a trump lead is quite likely (the stiff ace blocking the suit is sort of an anamoly from East's perspective.)

[jdonn]

Stephen Tu, on Apr 12 2007, 02:49 PM, said:

Quote

Yup. When the defense plays diamond&diamond, you are laydown that way. You can also set up a diamond trick with your spots. Shifting to clubs is a much stronger defense.

Yeah, I guess it's probably best to play 3 diamonds right away, not play trumps at all, to prevent the club from being removed.

That won't work on the actual lie. West ruffs in and can play a trump to east for another diamond ruff high in front of dummy. I have no doubts MFA would find this defense

[the hog]

The more I read. the less appealing the takeout X has become, particularly as pd could have bid 1S with 4 and a 6 count.

[goobers]

Just curious, what is the principle that makes people believe that partner has 4 spades? With 4, she could've made a negative double (or whatever methods you use).

If she was too weak to act, then are you playing the odds that partner has 4? They have a fit, we have a fit?

[Gerben42]

See, Dbl wasn't obvious. We have a save against a contract that might have gone down if we hadn't doubled in the first place... Great!

[nik1998]

Dbl.....

[helene_t]

I wouldn't sacrifice as North even if South had made a t/o double.