Posted 2006-December-28, 13:33
The bidding plus the lead worry me. I'd sure like to be at the table on this one... FTF, not online, and preferably against known opps.
Would LHO have bid over the 1♥ overcall on Kxxxxx 109xxx in the majors, with 1-1 or 2-0 in the minors?
Would RHO really bid this way (at most a soft 9 count in the minors) with 6=6 or 5=6 in the minors? Why did LHO lead a ♦ rather than a ♣? Obviously, for this last one, if he was 1=0 or 2=0 in the minors, he had no choice. However, with 6421 wouldn't he lead the stiff? While with 5=5=2=1, maybe he'd go for the forcing game, rather than play for two ruffs.... one ruff would be meaningless since it would be with a natural trump trick.
These thoughts and others are why, at the table and at my computer, it takes a long time to decide on a line, and why I doubt that it is possible to actually calculate the 'best' line.
If trump are 4-1, the simplest way to 10 tricks is to draw trump and play on ♠s. While LHO undoubtedly holds far more ♠s than RHO, RHO needs the ♠K to come close to having his bids, assuming he lacks truly radical shape. Kx x QJ9xx KQJ10x is already dubious, altho I suspect that most would want to get the ♣ suit in if only to get a better lead.
If trump are 5-0, I am not sure that we have much hope.
So I win the ♦A, cross to my hand in trump. If trump split, I finish drawing them and then play a ♠ to the A, cash a top ♦ and lead a ♠, failing only when I am VERY unlucky in that suit...could LHO really hold KJxxx(x)(x) and not have bid?
I have tried to come up with a line that prevails against a 5-0 trump break, but I don't think I can, unless RHO has a stiff ♠ honour and I guess which one it is: I'd guess the K. I think accurate defence prevails on any other 5-0 break due to transportation issues.
'one of the great markers of the advance of human kindness is the howls you will hear from the Men of God' Johann Hari
P - (1♦) - 1♥ - (P)
2♦ - (3♣) - 4♥ - All Pass