[awm]

The results on the board were as follows:

The vast majority of the field doubled, and reached 2♥ when advancer bid 1♥ and doubler raised (with or without a competitive 1♠ call from opener) to 2♥. Barring some extraordinary misplay or misdefense (hard even given the level of ACBL tourneys) the result for 2♥ was making two for +110.

A few people passed out either the 1♣ opening or a rebid of 1♠ by opener after 1♣-P-1♦-P-1♠ or 1♣-X-P-1♥-1♠. In either of these one-level contracts the normal result was to set it one trick for +100.

A few people overcompeted the opponents cards, and ended up at the two or three-level (sometimes doubled, more often not) leading to +200 or more for north/south.

A few people overcompeted the north-south cards in response to overcompeting opponents, typically leading to 3♥ one down for -50.

Overcalling 1NT opposite a partner who doesn't game force at MPs with a 4333 9-count got me -50 when the spades were 4-3 and the diamond king was offside.

--------------------

My calculation is that spades are actually extremely likely to divide on this hand. Suppose spades are 5-2. LHO can't have ♠AKxxx or ♠AQxxx, because this leaves opener without enough to open the bidding. Even if LHO has ♠AJ9xx or ♠KQ9xx (leaving RHO with a balanced 12), he might well respond 1♠ over the double. If LHO has ♠QJxxx then the suit blocks, so this leaves only ♠KJxxx which I know some people would respond on too. Anyways, I wouldn't say that 2NT is "much better" than 2♥ as contracts go, but I think it's roughly equal. I'm not really posting this to "complain about my result;" it's more that I was surprised that the field was so overwhelmingly in favor of doubling on this hand.

[keylime]

I overcall 1♥; 1NT is an overbid with such flat shape and no body. Double is just as bad when I own potentially 2 club winners, and I'm not afraid of a 4-3 heart fit on this hand. If I doubled I can't handle LHO's spade call and raise. Pard isn't going to go right on the lead.

[kenrexford]

Jlall, on Dec 26 2006, 11:15 AM, said:

kenrexford, on Dec 26 2006, 10:58 AM, said:

You end up in a, perhaps, 12:5 favorite for best contract and it fails.

Where do you get these numbers? The diamond king rates to be on but surely the chances of 5-2 spades (less AK tight with DK on) combined with the DK being offside (you are missing 16 HCP so it's certainly possible albeit not likely) is more than 30 %?

I suspect it was the passers who got the top on this board if the spades were 4-3 since they will be defending 1C or 1N for +200. If spades are 5-2 though then they will only get +100 in which case the 1H/Xers got a top...

I played the board but don't really remember the layout, but it seems like either the passers or the non 1N bidders will get the top on this hand, not the 1N bidders.

Against the possibility of spades splitting 5-2 you must also weigh the risk of hearts splitting 4-1 or 5-0, as well as the risk of clubs splitting 6-1. I'd venture that these are roughly equal.

For instance, the defense could easily be club lead, club ruff, spade back, cash second spade, second club ruff, cash spade, back spade (pitching diamond), diamond finesse failing, for down two at 2♥. Similarly, problems may arise when hearts are 4-1 or 5-0, even when spades are 4-3 and the fourth round is played, allowing a useless ruff-sluff that promotes the long heart.

The 12:5 ratio involves highly complicated advanced string theory...

[neilkaz]

Winstonm, on Dec 25 2006, 11:20 AM, said:

I double. As the double can be shaded with shape to as little as a 10-count, this poor shape double has to have compensating high cards. I don't promise more than 3-card support for the majors if I have compensating values or shape, i.e., a 3451 hand.

We agree completely. I don't like my shape for a double, but have some compensating high card strength. This hand is close to a pass for me, but passing these has too often lead to us making the last incorrect guess as to whether and how to balance.

If a H spot were the 10 I could see overcalling 1♥ but as it is, I really don't want to hear a 3 card raise with this suit and I am 4333.

To overcall 1NT I want a bit more playing strength.

.. neilkaz ..

[kenrexford]

Jlall, on Dec 26 2006, 03:57 PM, said:

kenrexford, on Dec 26 2006, 02:09 PM, said:

Similarly, problems may arise when hearts are 4-1 or 5-0, even when spades are 4-3 and the fourth round is played, allowing a useless ruff-sluff that promotes the long heart.

A ruff sluff when hearts are 4-1 on 4 rounds of spades? Brilliant. Pitch a diamond from hand...pull trumps...knock out club... and you're on a diamond hook for 9 tricks. How do you expect the 4 small trumps to be promoted when declarer and dummy both have 4 hearts? Rofl...excellent defense...your posts are completely worthless.

Spade-Spade-Spade-Spade, you overruff the stiff heart. Or, you ruffed first, in Dummy, if spades were 4-3 the other way, making the 4-1 dangerous either way.

After pulling trumps (in four rounds), you try to knock out the club (playing clubs twice). You now have ♦Jx ♣x in hand opposite ♦AQx on dummy.

Do you take the diamond finesse "for nine tricks?" If Declarer started with 4414, without the diamond King, you lose the rest of the tricks when the diamond finesse fails. Unless your posts are completely worthless, I'll assume that this was not the ignorant line you meant.

So, perhaps you finesse diamond first? Jack toward Dummy. When this loses, and a diamond comes back, you have ♦A ♣KJ opposite ♣Qxx (pitched club on the fourth heart). That works.

However, then you have a problem when the diamond finesse would have worked. You would have seen J-K-A in diamonds. That leaves you with ♦Qx ♣KJ in dummy, ♦x ♣Qxx in hand. This causes a problem, now, on the second round of clubs, because Opener fires back a diamond and your transportation is snipped.

So, it appears that the fourth round of spades, when hearts are 4-1, creates an immaterial squeeze on dummy in the minors if you "pull trumps" next as suggested.

I hope that is not a "completely worthless" analysis, for you.

[kenrexford]

After my cigarette, I thought about another possibility that should probably be mentioned. If hearts are 4-1, and clubs 5-2, you also have problems on club-club, or small club (retaining the Ace). If you pull all four trumps, then the spades run unimpeded (when the diamond finesse fails after club-club, or when you try to establish a second club after a small club lead). If you do not pull trumps, you face a club ruff.

[kenrexford]

Justin, this is MP. I could care less whether the defense sets 2♥. I am concerned as to whether the defense blocks my ability to make more tricks in hearts than in NT. Surely you understand this principle?

In case you do not. Let's assume hearts are 4-1. What if Opener holds, say, 4135 pattern? At 2♠, it looks like he loses one club, one diamond, one heart. He will probably lose another somewhere. Losing two more is difficult, but let's assume this. Now, 2♠ makes (-110), and worse if you plan to double 2♠, but partner will be hard-pressed to try 3♥, which apparently fails anyway when 2NT may make.

What about Opener with 4144 pattern? Now diamonds can be established for down one, which beats 2♥ unless you double this -- but who will?

What about 4414 pattern? This seems odd, but plausible. Now, on a trump lead, Declarer can win in hand, lead a diamond toward the King. After winning the next spade in dummy, diamond-diamond establishes the suit (ruff high). When a spade goes back and they split 3-3, nine tricks. On a heart lead, there is timing for a cross-ruff.

Thus, I seem to need to be able to take more tricks in hearts than NT, because a double seems to limit us to 2♥ or defending 2♠, whereas a 1NT overcall allows us to declare 2NT.

[the hog]

Justin you made my day. Your post is the best I have read in ages. ROFL.
Ken, anyone who thinks a 1NT overcall here is a reasonable bid can't be taken seriously. You deserve to go for 500 at least. Look your pd is PASSED, you have no long suit in your hand - from where are your tricks coming????

[awm]

Well, I agree with Justin that playing four rounds of spades isn't a good defense against 2♥. But I don't think that particularly impacts the merits of 1NT as a bid. Here's my thought process:

(1) I'm not particularly afraid of being doubled in 1NT. How many of us play 14-16 NTs opposite a passed partner? Are we really concerned about the penalty double of a (more or less) strong notrump at favorable? I suspect most of us are not. We have more strength than RHO, and we know that a substantial amount of the opponents strength is on our right. I don't think the "risks" of being doubled here are substantially greater than in the auction Pass-Pass-1NT(14-16).

(2) The vast majority of the time, this hand will be a fight for a partscore. Assuming we aren't playing some method where we open most (or all) tens and elevens, partner's expected strength is only very slightly less than LHO's. Keeping in mind that there are 26 hcp between our hand and RHO, odds are LHO doesn't have an opening bid any more than partner does.

(3) If we're going to fight for a partial, the 1NT bid has substantial advantages. It names the most likely best partial for our side immediately while still allowing partner to remove to a five card major suit if she has one. It right-sides any eventual contract by our side so it will be played by the stronger hand. It preempts the opponents out of a potential 4-4 (or perhaps even 5-4) spade fit. It enables partner to easily double opponents at the two-level if LHO makes the mistake of bidding on a potential misfit (if we double, LHO's bid will be at the one-level on an auction where we have shown fewer values and fewer clubs, making penalizing substantially harder).

In fact, I think that playing 1NT overcalls as 14-17 when non-vulnerable is an eminently reasonable agreement that will help substantially with these "tweener" hands where you are too strong to feel comfortable passing, too off-shape to have an easy double, and a point or so light of a 1NT call. Whether the 1NT overcall is a good bid on this 14 given a general agreement of 15-18 is certainly less clear, because of the increased risk of landing in a poor game contract (or 2NT/3♥) but I still believe it has substantial upside. On this hand the 2NT contract which was reached will outscore the 2♥ partial you get from doubling a substantial percentage of the time (I'd say it's around 50-50, since the diamond finesse is somewhat more than 50% through opening bidder, and some of the 5-2 spade breaks are impossible based on the point count and the fact that opener won't have five spades).

In any case, I think it would be a shame to let one erroneous argument for a 1NT call by one of the 1NT bidders convince you that 1NT is a bad call -- which really doesn't follow. It's just as easy to make incorrect or unconvincing arguments for something that's actually a good idea, as for something that's a bad one.

[the hog]

Adam you really appear to be missing the point. Thos of us who argue that 1NT is a poor bid would quite likely not even open a 14-16 1NT on ths hand. The distribution is sterile and it appears I have to repeat myself a 3rd time - from where are your tricks coming? The fact that pd is passed makes this even a less attractive bid. Your partner has less than 11; if your partner has 5 or less you are likely to be hit and this is not an unlikely scenario is it?

"We have more strength than RHO," Where on earth has this come from and why is it so?

"I don't think the "risks" of being doubled here are substantially greater than in the auction Pass-Pass-1NT(14-16). " I think the risks are significantly greater - look at the auction again!

[Elianna]

Jlall, on Dec 26 2006, 05:59 AM, said:

I'm guessing my 1N overcalls are significantly sounder than yours though given your partners invite.

His partner has seen him play. (Just kidding, btw).

In my defense, I've seen him overcall on 14 points frequently.

BTW, I voted for pass by the overcaller hand. Yes, I'm very conservative on these hands. I make a good partner for a joker.

[awm]

If you have to know "where your tricks are coming from" every time you open or overcall 1NT, you're opening a lot less 1NTs than I am. I suppose you would not open 1NT on:

Axx
Kxxx
Ax
Axxx

in first seat, since you can only see 3.5-4 likely tricks..? I admit that my philosophy is to upgrade good hands rather than downgrade bad ones, and that there's virtually no hand with 14 hcp that I would rate as "not good enough to open 14-16 NT" (whereas there are a few really nice 16s that I'd rate as "too good").

As far as being doubled, I'd much rather play 1NTX with RHO having 13 and LHO having 9 rather than RHO having 6 and LHO having 16, since it's usually easier to take tricks when their points are in front of the strong hand. The vast majority of the time, a 1♣ opening delivers a 12-14 notrump. In this case I am indeed stronger than RHO, and the remaining points rate to be fairly evenly divided between partner and LHO (since the expected number of points in their hands is seven, the negative inference that partner doesn't have 12+ has little effect). While occasionally RHO might have extras in an unbalanced hand, this often makes it harder for opponents to double me, and also makes it more likely partner has a five-card suit giving us a good place to run. This is MP scoring so the very occasional -500 is worthwhile if I can turn a couple -110s into -50s.

I do find it amusing that some of the same people who feel that it's necessary to have a strong NT overcall available at vulnerable in sandwich seat (both opponents bidding) seem to think that overcalling 1NT on a good 14 at favorable (only one opponent bidding so far) is way too risky. I can hardly fathom that two extra points makes that much of a difference.

[the hog]

"I do find it amusing that some of the same people who feel that it's necessary to have a strong NT overcall available at vulnerable in sandwich seat (both opponents bidding seem to think that overcalling 1NT on a good 14 at favorable (only one opponent bidding so far) is way too risky). I can hardly fathom that two extra points makes that much of a difference. "

Well, I don't play this either, but I give up on this post. All I can say is that I wish you would play this way against me for money or a serious MP event. (Yes, yes I know this is MP, but I can dream can't I?)