[cherdano]

awm, on Dec 27 2006, 07:27 AM, said:

(1) I'm not particularly afraid of being doubled in 1NT. How many of us play 14-16 NTs opposite a passed partner? Are we really concerned about the penalty double of a (more or less) strong notrump at favorable? I suspect most of us are not. We have more strength than RHO, and we know that a substantial amount of the opponents strength is on our right. I don't think the "risks" of being doubled here are substantially greater than in the auction Pass-Pass-1NT(14-16).

I am really surprised that you think so. Even if I had a penalty double of a 14-16 NT available, I would need 17+ to use it. After his partner opened in 2nd seat, LHO will be able to double with any reasonable 9 including a good lead, or any 10+. I think LHO having 10+ is a lot more likely than having 17+ after P-P-1N.
Anyway, just from experience, a 1NT overcall getting doubled seems to happen quite frequently, but I can hardly remember a strong NT getting penalized, even though 1NT openings are a lot more frequent than 1NT overcalls.

[Halo]

I bid 1NT, with a complete lack of conviction. But I am not worried about being doubled in 1NT. I'm more worried about partner bidding on, and going minus when I should be plus.

1NT doubled costs when the opponents get you two off and had no game, or one off and had no reasonable part score. This is very possible, but not terrifying.

The down side is not having a reliable way to play in game when partner has a good pass. This is serious, and close to persuading me that 1H is better. But don't we get the same sort of numbers of good passes where we play in 3H going off?

Maybe passing quietly trying your defensive skills for a change is the best answer.

[whereagles]

This is a textbook example of a pass over 1♣, but matchpoints isn't a textbook game, so I'd double or pass depending on my mood.

[Apollo81]

The funny thing about this hand for me is that I'd be least likely to act at favorable vulnerability. The opps are red so I can get +100 possibly which outscores +90/+80 which I may get if I act. Also partner will be most likely to take some action himself if he has anything. I am most likely to pass at these colors.

If we are red, I feel that I have to double. 1NT is suicidal and passing will basically shut our side out of the auction for the rest of the hand. I'd prefer defending at all red (for the +100) but I don't think it's likely we will buy the hand if I double unless we are making something.

At all white, I feel that I cannot pass. All white is often a race to 1NT. I would be most likely to make the 1NT overcall at these colors for all the reasons Adam said. I would choose some other action if partner is not expecting aggressive 1NT overcalls white over 1m.

I would probably double at IMPs no matter what the vulnerability is. Far safer to do this than to guess whether to balance later.
-Noble

[FrancesHinden]

As cherdano said, this is a textbook example of a pass. I can't imagine doing anything other than pass, the alternatives are all horrible.

I've been known to overcall 1NT on a 14-count, but not on a pile of rubbish like this. My 1NT overcalls are (fractionally) stronger than my strong 1NT openings and this is way short of an upgrade. Compared to the assorted multiplicity of downsides (we have to play 1NTx, partner gets us too high, the opponents make more tricks because they know where all the high cards are) it's hard to see much benefit in the 1NT overcall - it's aiming at an exceptionally small target (mainly being +90 instead of +50 or -50/-100 instead of -90/-120).

If you had removed all the pass cards from my bidding box and forced me to made a non-pass call, I suppose I'd double. But I hate it.

Now we know partner's hand, it's clear 1C wouldn't get passed out, as partner has an easy 1NT protection as a passed hand.

[mikeh]

FrancesHinden, on Dec 27 2006, 11:53 AM, said:

As cherdano said, this is a textbook example of a pass. I can't imagine doing anything other than pass, the alternatives are all horrible.

I've been known to overcall 1NT on a 14-count, but not on a pile of rubbish like this. My 1NT overcalls are (fractionally) stronger than my strong 1NT openings and this is way short of an upgrade. Compared to the assorted multiplicity of downsides (we have to play 1NTx, partner gets us too high, the opponents make more tricks because they know where all the high cards are) it's hard to see much benefit in the 1NT overcall - it's aiming at an exceptionally small target (mainly being +90 instead of +50 or -50/-100 instead of -90/-120).

If you had removed all the pass cards from my bidding box and forced me to made a non-pass call, I suppose I'd double. But I hate it.

Now we know partner's hand, it's clear 1C wouldn't get passed out, as partner has an easy 1NT protection as a passed hand.

precisely

[mike777]

mikeh, on Dec 27 2006, 12:07 PM, said:

FrancesHinden, on Dec 27 2006, 11:53 AM, said:

As cherdano said, this is a textbook example of a pass. I can't imagine doing anything other than pass, the alternatives are all horrible.

I've been known to overcall 1NT on a 14-count, but not on a pile of rubbish like this. My 1NT overcalls are (fractionally) stronger than my strong 1NT openings and this is way short of an upgrade.  Compared to the assorted multiplicity of downsides (we have to play 1NTx, partner gets us too high, the opponents make more tricks because they know where all the high cards are) it's hard to see much benefit in the 1NT overcall - it's aiming at an exceptionally small target (mainly being +90 instead of +50 or -50/-100 instead of -90/-120).

If you had removed all the pass cards from my bidding box and forced me to made a non-pass call, I suppose I'd double. But I hate it.

Now we know partner's hand, it's clear 1C wouldn't get passed out, as partner has an easy 1NT protection as a passed hand.

precisely

I would be shocked if in a BW poll everyone or almost everyone passed this hand saying this is a textbook pass.

I would expect votes for at least: pass, 1nt on 14 nv, x or 1H

[HeartA]

I would pass. On occasions that I need aggressive, I would overcall 1NT.

[mike777]

edit.

[Rebound]

I think it's a great pass. Many more times have I gotten a good result from keeping my mouth shut than jumping in when, not only am I unsure what to call, i.e. 1h/1nt/dbl, but also unsure where the opps are headed in the auction.

LHO is undefined. You may yet get to defend a heart or club partial when they're vully and +200 is a good thing.

[pclayton]

I've been watching this post for a few days without commenting. I tend to pass 4333's with less than a full 15 unless I have great intermediates or a good 4 bagger. Sometimes I get shut out but 4333s need to defend. KJxx isnt a good reason to overcall. Why should I dissuade pard from leading from 5 good diamonds, and why should tip off which is likely a 2 way guess in the heart suit?

I dont get upset about the results here. You either take initial action with these hands or you doUnt. Until I start showing a big net loss, I'll continue to make the pass and live with the outcome, but my personal experience is that acting initially with these hands is not sound, unless I have mitigating reasons to bid.

[Fluffy]

pclayton, on Dec 31 2006, 06:57 AM, said:

I've been watching this post for a few days without commenting. I tend to pass 4333's with less than a full 15 unless I have great intermediates or a good 4 bagger. Sometimes I get shut out but 4333s need to defend. KJxx isnt a good reason to overcall. Why should I dissuade pard from leading from 5 good diamonds, and why should tip off which is likely a 2 way guess in the heart suit?

I dont get upset about the results here. You either take initial action with these hands or you doUnt. Until I start showing a big net loss, I'll continue to make the pass and live with the outcome, but my personal experience is that acting initially with these hands is not sound, unless I have mitigating reasons to bid.

I hate to defend with 4333, all their suits break perfectly

My book says pass, then I know everyone on a field around here will double, so on MP I would be forced to double or I could play a different contract than anyone else.

On IMPs I'll pass.

[Winstonm]

I used to pass these hands routinely, but as the game speeded up and became more aggressive, I found that there was a slight advantage in taking the risk of doubling with these hand types when you hold a solid 14 count. Doubling is very much the safest action as it is the most flexible and allows playing in 1D, 1H, or 1S verses a 1N overcall which is easier to double.

Having made the double, I would treat this as a minimum hand and not bid again unless partner made a forcing bid (unlikely).

[dake50]

1NT, owe a point, esp 3433.

[Double !]

I know I might be totally alone on this, but one of my preferences (toys) is to play 13-16 1NT overcalls, not vul. It helps to solve problems such as the given hand for this thread, it takes pressure of of partner should partner somehow wind up in a balancing position, it puts some pressure on lho (especially if not knowing how light his partner might open), and it makes life easier for partner to compete. What to do next if I initially pass and the bidding goes something like 1C-P-1S-p-1NT-? Now the opps have gotten the first shot in, and rho has made a relatively descriptive and limited rebid, so the opp's have some idea about how high they can go. Picking a lead will also be fun.

Have I gotten burned playing this range of overcall? A few times, not as much as one might anticipate, especially when we have runouts. The negative inferences from the fact that one did not overcall 1NT can also be useful.

DHL

Best wishes to everyone.

[cherdano]

pclayton, on Dec 31 2006, 08:57 AM, said:

I've been watching this post for a few days without commenting. I tend to pass 4333's with less than a full 15 unless I have great intermediates or a good 4 bagger. Sometimes I get shut out but 4333s need to defend. KJxx isnt a good reason to overcall. Why should I dissuade pard from leading from 5 good diamonds, and why should tip off which is likely a 2 way guess in the heart suit?

I agree with all this; I would just add that I would routinely double with a similar hand that has no wastage in clubs, e.g. if you swap the black suits in the problem hand.