[Echognome]

Scoring: MP

1♣(1) - (3♠) - P - (P)
?

---

(1) 16+ any shape

Just what you expect at these colours. You open a strong club and now hear 3♠ back to you. Do you take some action or go quietly into the night?

[hrothgar]

Ick...

Do I know anything about the opponents preempt style?
In particular, will they bid 3♠ white versus red on a 5 card suit?

If LHO is a nice dependable sort, I think that I can safely pass.

If, on the otherhand, they're wild men, I'll consider balancing with 3NT.
I'll probably still pass, but I'll consider 3NT

(My main concern is that the balancing NT is normally based on a long running suit rather than a few stoppers and a prayer)

[hotShot]

I think opps preempt style is aggressive. This is exactly the kind of decision you want strog club opener to make when you preempt.
Responder had no bid at the 4 level (and knows nothing about openers shape) and now opener has to decide without any knowledge of his partners hand.

This time you are lucky because you hold good ♠. So pass, dbl and 3NT are options. Good luck guessing.

[glen]

When one faces problems like this, one should consider how the bidding may go in standard - 1♦-3♠-P-P--? or 1♦-2♠-P-P--? In standard the choice now is between pass or make the cheapest notrump bid, and it is tough one. The stronger the field, the more often they will pick pass, so I would pass in a strong field. I would also pass if the EW pair are good defenders. However in a less-than-strong field against average players, I would bid 3NT.

[hrothgar]

officeglen, on Jun 5 2006, 03:39 PM, said:

When one faces problems like this, one should consider how the bidding may go in standard - 1♦-3♠-P-P--? or 1♦-2♠-P-P--?  In standard the choice now is between pass or make the cheapest notrump bid, and it is tough one.  The stronger the field, the more often they will pick pass, so I would pass in a strong field.  I would also pass if the EW pair are good defenders.  However in a less-than-strong field against average players, I would bid 3NT.

Pardon my naivety, however, I really don't believe that a white on red 3♠ overcall of a strong club opening bears much resemblence to a 3♠ overcall after a 1♦ opening.

If I were going to assume a "standard" auction, it would start with a 2NT opening...

[glen]

- that's why I listed 2♠ and 3♠ overcalls as possible
- although i would open 2NT, considering it 20-21, many of the strict point counters would not open the 19 with 2NT

[foo]

hotShot, on Jun 5 2006, 07:13 AM, said:

I think opps preempt style is aggressive. This is exactly the kind of decision you want strog club opener to make when you preempt.
Responder had no bid at the 4 level (and knows nothing about openers shape) and now opener has to decide without any knowledge of his partners hand.

This time you are lucky because you hold good ♠. So pass, dbl and 3NT are options. Good luck guessing.

Bah humbug. Guessing is when you do not know what action the odds favor. This situation should not be such.

I have 19 HCP and 8/12 of the controls. Assuming 4-9 HCP for the 3S WJO, that leaves
13-18 HCP out. GOP's fair share is 6.5-9 HCP and 2 controls.

We are likely cold for Game.

We are Red, They are White. Unless We can set them >= 4, Our game rates to pay more than penalizing Them.

Then take into account what hands Responder =can't= have because they did not make any call other than pass (what do X, 3N, 4S!, etc by Responder here mean?)

Now either X or bid 3N depending on which is more likely to pay more and accept whatever happens.

Odds are you will at least achieve parity on the board since
a= you "know" how to play the hand if in 3N
b= everyone else in the field rates to have had a similar problem (1D-(3S)-??)

EDIT: I do not think opening the given hand 2N is either necessary or best. You might be control rich for 19 HCP, but where are your tricks? Also, AT tight is not likely to help you establish much in the way of length tricks and you don't have a 5 card suit for such a purpose either. You have ~5 5/12 expected tricks in hand. You need GOP to provide ~3 7/12 to make 3N. ~4 7/12 to make 4M.
A 1D opening seems enough.

[Echognome]

foo, on Jun 5 2006, 12:50 PM, said:

Bah humbug. Guessing is when you do not know what action the odds favor. This situation should not be such.

I have 19 HCP and 8/12 of the controls. Assuming 4-9 HCP for the 3S WJO, that leaves
13-18 HCP out. GOP's fair share is 6.5-9 HCP and 2 controls.

We are likely cold for Game.

We are Red, They are White. Unless We can set them >= 4, Our game rates to pay more than penalizing Them.

Then take into account what hands Responder =can't= have because they did not make any call other than pass (what do X, 3N, 4S!, etc by Responder here mean?)

Now either X or bid 3N depending on which is more likely to pay more and accept whatever happens.

Odds are you will at least achieve parity on the board since
a= you "know" how to play the hand if in 3N
b= everyone else in the field rates to have had a similar problem (1D-(3S)-??)

I disagree with your estimates. Why should the 3♠ bidder have 4-9 hcp? I believe that 3♠ is much more wide ranging. Hence why we are guessing!

I'm not sure how likely we are for game. I would put the expected number of spades with LHO at around 6. That leaves 1 or 2 for partner. Given that you have only 2 hearts and partner likely has 4-5 and couldn't make a takeout double, he cannot be sitting on much over there. The question is more, does he have a bad 7 or a yarb?

I also don't see how you are going to penalise the opponents. If you double, it is takeout and what do you expect partner's call to be? Pass? You're dreaming.

As per the field action mentioned above, I couldn't really decide. I felt most people in this field would open 1♦ (with the plan of rebbiding 2NT). LHO has a 1, 2, or 3 level spade overcall depening on his shape and values. If RHO is going to pass that, then my hand would most likely rebid NT at the 1 or 2 level. If at the 3 level, then I'm not so bothered as the scores will be fluctuating quite a bit.

[MickyB]

foo, on Jun 5 2006, 01:50 PM, said:

GOP's fair share is 6.5-9 HCP

If pard has 9 HCP, either the opps have overcalled in your 9 card fit or you need a new partner.

[hrothgar]

As I noted in my original post, there are some real dangers with bidding 3NT.
Partner didn't start with a negative double, which very much limits his hand.
Equally significant, RHO is going to happily pass with values and Spade shortage.

Personally, I'd be very worried that partner is sitting on something like

♠ xxx
♥ Qxxx
♦ xx
♣ Qxxx

where 3N is going to be unpleasant (to say the least)

The problem with this hand is that there really aren't any good bids.

You'd like to be able to double for penalty, however, most pairs play this as takeout.
A balancing 3NT looks much more like

♠ Axx
♥ Kx
♦ AKQxxxx
♣ A

(BTW... Its really cute how many people are convinced that LHO has Spades)

[foo]

MickyB, on Jun 5 2006, 08:13 AM, said:

foo, on Jun 5 2006, 01:50 PM, said:

GOP's fair share is 6.5-9 HCP

If pard has 9 HCP, either the opps have overcalled in your 9 card fit or you need a new partner.

Why?? Given that Opener could have as little as 16 HCP flat, what does Responder do with 33(43) or =4333, and no S Stop with 9 HCP?
How about (23)44 and no S stop with 9 HCP?
Most pairs are going to play that 1C-(3S)-X shows ~4 H's...

The board could actually be a horrible misfit and Our best way of going plus is The Red Card.

[inquiry]

Seens to me, double by opener is for takeout on this auction. With two hearts and four spades, no way I double. The only real choice is pass and 3NT, in that order.

[hotShot]

foo, on Jun 5 2006, 02:50 PM, said:

Bah humbug.  Guessing is when you do not know what action the odds favor.  This situation should not be such.

I have 19 HCP and 8/12 of the controls.  Assuming 4-9 HCP for the 3S WJO, that leaves
13-18 HCP out.  GOP's fair share is 6.5-9 HCP and 2 controls.

Well there are 4 controls missing in 3 cards, this means that partner is likely to have one of these cards. Since the missing cards are 2K and one A you should think partner has about 1 control.
Partner did not dbl, and he should not have more than 1 or 2 ♠, so he should have the shape for a negative dbl. With a 5/6 card suit and the knowledge that partner holds 16+ HCP he should have taken some sort of action with 8+ HCP.

Why shouldn't LHO bid 3♠ with 17 HCP? Opener showed 16+, he knows that partner won't have the strength for a bid anyway, so he might just set the "final" contract.

[foo]

hrothgar, on Jun 5 2006, 08:18 AM, said:

 

Quote

As I noted in my original post, there are some real dangers with bidding 3NT.

Then go play a safer game and don't cross streets where there are any moving cars.

Quote

Partner didn't start with a negative double, which very much limits his hand.

Mostly with regards to =shape=, not values. See my above post.

Quote

Equally significant, RHO is going to happily pass with values and Spade shortage.

Personally, I'd be very worried that partner is sitting on something like

♠ xxx♥ Qxxx♦ xx♣ Qxxx

where 3N is going to be unpleasant (to say the least)

Violently anti-percentage. If you cater your bidding and play this pessimistically, you are not going to score well in most situations. Bridge, particularly matchpoints, is about playing the odds. I know darn well you aren't this conservative in real life or you would not advocate the methods you do!

Quote

The problem with this hand is that there really aren't any good bids.

IMHO there are 2 good 2nd calls by Opener here. X and 3N. Pass is not a LA unless Our system is broken (in which case it is getting fixed ASAP after this board).

Quote

A balancing 3NT looks much more like

♠ Axx♥ Kx♦ AKQxxxx♣ A

3N in this auction means "I think We can make 3N". Nothing more.

Quote

You'd like to be able to double for penalty, however, most pairs play this as takeout.

(BTW...  Its really cute how many people are convinced that LHO has Spades)

...and this is =exactly= why the hand most likely to be flat has to be able to put a Red Card on the table for business here.

If I had $1 for every point I've collected in penalties over the years from people who think psyching in Our NT or likely to be NT auctions is a good idea, I'd be very rich.

[foo]

hotShot, on Jun 5 2006, 08:35 AM, said:

Well there are 4 controls missing in 3 cards, this means that partner is likely to have one of these cards. Since the missing cards are 2K and one A you should think partner has about 1 control.
Partner did not dbl, and he should not have more than 1 or 2 ♠, so he should have the shape for a negative dbl. With a 5/6 card suit and the knowledge that partner holds 16+ HCP he should have taken some sort of action with 8+ HCP.

Why shouldn't LHO bid 3♠ with 17 HCP? Opener showed 16+, he knows that partner won't have the strength for a bid anyway, so he might just set the "final" contract.

That's true if nothing is known about the other 3 hands. Given the WJO, it is more likely the missing controls are split between the 2 unknown hands, with a slight vig toward the WJO having the SK.
In short, GOP has a decent chance of having the CA or SK+CK.

Richard has already mentioned one reason not to assume GOP is short in S's.

If LHO has something like 17 HCP, the best strategy for LHO is to pass quietly in tempo and then consider Whacking the final NS contract.

[hrothgar]

foo, on Jun 5 2006, 04:50 PM, said:

That's true if nothing is known about the other 3 hands.  Given the WJO, it is more likely the missing controls are split between the 2 unknown hands, with a slight vig toward the WJO having the SK.
In short, GOP has a decent chance of having the CA or SK+CK.

Richard has already mentioned one reason not to assume GOP is short in S's.

If LHO has something like 17 HCP, the best strategy for LHO is to pass quietly in tempo and then consider Whacking the final NS contract.

You persist in believing that LHO is going to behave in a nice predicatble manner

Based on my experience, LHO could be:

1. Long in Spades
2. Short in Spades (Please reference the "Poll: How Many" thread were some very good posted advocated a white on red 4♥ overcall with a heart void)
3. Weak
4. Strong
5. Something in between

LHO won't behave deterministically: It makes life far too easy on the strong club opener.

[hotShot]

foo, on Jun 5 2006, 03:50 PM, said:

If LHO has something like 17 HCP, the best strategy for LHO is to pass quietly in tempo and then consider Whacking the final NS contract.

I don't think you are right.

After a sequence like:
I'm strong - I'm weak
I'm balanced - pass
I don't think you can win much by whacking opps contract.

But with a preempt you put opps under pressure, espacially if opener has extra values or a shapy hand (very likely if you have one). If he bids on, you are much more likely to gain something.

[whereagles]

Hum.. pard is short in spades but didn't act, so he's bound to have no more than 4-5 hcps and we can't make a thing, especially since we have no hearts. Pass seems to be the percentage bid, but it's far from a certaintt it's the right move because other tables might have very different auctions.

And yes, you're probably fixed

[foo]

hotShot, on Jun 5 2006, 09:40 AM, said:

foo, on Jun 5 2006, 03:50 PM, said:

If LHO has something like 17 HCP, the best strategy for LHO is to pass quietly in tempo and then consider Whacking the final NS contract.

I don't think you are right.

After a sequence like:
I'm strong - I'm weak
I'm balanced - pass
I don't think you can win much by whacking opps contract.

But with a preempt you put opps under pressure, espacially if opener has extra values or a shapy hand (very likely if you have one). If he bids on, you are much more likely to gain something.

I said =consider= Whacking the opponents final contract.

You may not have to. You may not want to.

Let's say W is holding 17 HCP and it does go something like
1C!-1D!;2N-end

Do you think NS rates to make 2N?

Unless W has a clear cut lead to set 2N with =and= W thinks NS have nowhere to run, W should just pass quietly and let Declarer discover any surprises during the play...

After all, it =is= possible to get a good score occasionally by simply defending folks...


Back on the original topic, =Yes= preempts make Life more difficult. OTOH, just because They have preempted does not automatically mean you are "fixed".

[pclayton]

hrothgar, on Jun 5 2006, 06:23 AM, said:

foo, on Jun 5 2006, 04:50 PM, said:

That's true if nothing is known about the other 3 hands.  Given the WJO, it is more likely the missing controls are split between the 2 unknown hands, with a slight vig toward the WJO having the SK.
In short, GOP has a decent chance of having the CA or SK+CK.

Richard has already mentioned one reason not to assume GOP is short in S's.

If LHO has something like 17 HCP, the best strategy for LHO is to pass quietly in tempo and then consider Whacking the final NS contract.

You persist in believing that LHO is going to behave in a nice predicatble manner

Based on my experience, LHO could be:

1. Long in Spades
2. Short in Spades (Please reference the "Poll: How Many" thread were some very good posted advocated a white on red 4♥ overcall with a heart void)
3. Weak
4. Strong
5. Something in between

LHO won't behave deterministically: It makes life far too easy on the strong club opener.

I think this is taking things to extremes. Spade preempts tend to be honest, since they can't handle raises very well.

I also don't think LHO is very strong either. Why should LHO preempt his own side out of a cold game?

Therefore, LHO has 6 or 7 spades with at most one outside entry. Many 5-6 point hands produce a vulnerable 3N, and we are vulnerable.

I can't talk myself out of this one.