[joshs]

Free, on Jun 3 2006, 06:02 AM, said:

joshs, on Jun 2 2006, 10:58 PM, said:

whereagles, on Jun 2 2006, 03:25 AM, said:

This might be just academic because in practice we all bid game, but here it goes:

Scoring: IMP

West or East to deal, according to convenience.

Will you be able to stop in 4m?

---

For the record, our auction was 1NT(west)-3NT, with the obvious 2 down after a top spade lead.

In TOSR before I changed the order of the stopper asks (Dan if you are reading, did we adopt that change, or just me and John):
1C(15+)-2D(5+C)-2H®-2S(0-2 spades)-2N®-3D(2335)-3S(asks for spade stopper, shows a minimum hand)-4C(No spade stopper, 9-12ish)-P

Win 8.

I recently re-ordered the stopper asks so the 3 card suits come before the 2 card suits, so we wouldn't have a spade stopper ask available here.

If you felt you wanted to invite opposite 9-12 you can bid a non-forcing 4D next, but I would just want to get out with this hand.

I guess technically the auction could go:
1C-2D(5+C)-2H®-2S(0-2 spades)-3H(min hand, asks for a spade stopper)-3S(9-12, no stopper)-4C(Not forcing)-P(Some extras, but no spade control....)

Actually this is a quite good auction, since you are not wrongsiding NT by bidding 2N as the relay.

I don't think it's realistic to pass 4♣, chances of game are pretty high and you stayed out of the doomed 3NT already. 5m is still a possibility in opener's view, so 4♦ is the least he can still do, and I don't see East passing that. Playing a relaysystem makes it difficult to stay out of 3NT, but it makes it almost impossible to stay out of 5m as well imo.

Bidding problems with open cards are always solved VERY nicely, but at the table I would never see this auction appear! Most would end up in 3NT or 5m, usually going down. There seems to be a huge lack of realism, usually with people playing non-natural methods... Apparently it's just too hard to look at 1 hand at a time, realise what you know about partner's hand from the bidding, and make a decent decision. I don't see anyone mention WHY they pass at 4♣, what risks they take,...

I am not sure which auction you are talking about. In the second auction, it is opener who has bid 4C, and responder who has to decide if he is worth going to game:

In this auction, I think its clearly correct to pass 4C and isn't even a close decision.

You know your qx is wasted. Hence you have 9 working points opposite 15-17 which is not enough for 5 of a minor in absence of a singleton in the critical suit. Move the SQ somewhere else and you should gamble 5C since then you are in the right ballpark.

In the other auction, it is responder who has bid 4C. Here opener is a dead min with mediocre shape but all the points are working. They have somewhere between 24 and 27 points between them. Techically you need 28/29 for 5 of a minor. Further, you know at the other table they are palying 3N and are probably not making it (unless a non-spade is led) after a 1N-3N auction. Lets look at the imp odds:
RED
IN 4 making 4 you are +130+100=230=+6
In 4 making 5 = same plus 6
In 5 making 4= Push
In 5 making 5 = +12

So you actually have exactly even money odds on bidding game here, and I don't think you have even money odds on making game opposite 11-12 working points but its close. (The points have to be HA CAQ DQ/J OR HA CAJ DQ , and except fo the HA CAQ DQ hand the odds are less than 50% because you might have a 4-1 trump break.)

White:
In 4 making 4 its +180=+5
In 4 making = smae +5
In 5 making 4=push
In 5 making 5=+10

So again its exactly even money.

[cf_John0]

Although 3NT contract might be common,but I prefer belows:

1♦    2♣
3♣    3♦
3♥    4♦
pass...


or

        1♣ (nat.)
1♦    2♣
3♣    3♦
3♥    4♦

pass...

This post has been edited by cf_John0: 2006-June-06, 21:03

[HeartA]

Walddk, on Jun 2 2006, 04:17 AM, said:

1NT-3NT. If you never go down, you don't bid enough, period.

Roland

Totally agree.

[1eyedjack]

MarceldB, on Jun 2 2006, 02:02 PM, said:

Dealer West

P - 1♣
1♦ - 1♠
1NT - 2♥
2♠ - 2NT
3♦ - 3♥
3♠ - 4♣
Pass

P= 13+ any shape
1♣= 6-11 part bal. shapes òr 12+ any shape
1♦= 13+ bal. òr ++ else
1♠= 6-11p. bal. ♣ 5332 (then 2 top. in 5 card), 5422 òr 6322
1NT= relay and a positive (in points/shape)
2♥= a max. 10-11p. 5332, thus 2 toph. in ♣, òr 6322 no 2 toph. , or 5422
2♠= relay
2NT= 5332 or 5♣4♦22
3♦= stopper asking ♠+♥
3♥= no ♠ stopper
3♠= ♥ stopper?
4♣= no ♥ stopper and a 5332
Pass: without A♥ -and then no Q♦ by the way if 5332- no game prospects



If East is dealer:

- - 1♠ = 8-12p. bal. ♣ 5332 (then 2 top. in 5 card), 5422 or 6322
1NT= relay - etc. (now a max= 11-12p.)

Interested to know where you would have ended up if East held H stopper. 3NT perhaps, off 5 first Spade tricks? Also how can East be sure that S:Qx is inadequate stopper (ie opposite, say S:Jxx)? Prospects for 5m appear suspect also if East does have Heart Ace, because his limited values would then require him to be short an honour in a minor. Not familiar with the system, so just asking.

Anyway, I would end in 3N on an uninformative auction and expect to go down most of the time.

[MarceldB]

1eyedjack wrote:
"Interested to know where you would have ended up if East held H stopper. 3NT perhaps, off 5 first Spade tricks? Prospects for 5m appear suspect also if East does have Heart Ace, because his limited values would then require him to be short an honour in a minor. Not familiar with the system, so just asking."

If A♥ then 5♣ as contract. A 5332 is more as 81% chance. Thus AQ♣ is there according the system and no Q♦. With a 2=3=3=5 only less chance.. So prospects are fine. Specially if you compare the usual 1NT-3NT bidding at other table(s).

>Also how can East be sure that S:Qx is inadequate stopper (ie opposite, say S:Jxx)?

Qx is no stopper . Suppose relayer had Jxx♠. Then he would have bid 3♣ after the 2♥ bid. Hearing 3♦= ♦ stopper (thus QJx), 3♥= ♠ stop? 3♠= half stopper (I can not figure out 3- or 2-card unfortunately because of the spade-suit.
Even if you play: 3♥ = ♦ stop, no ♠ stop, can have ♥ stop, the chance of Qx♠= 78%, so I bid 3NT too (AQxxxx is not possible namely because of the 2♥ bid)

If ♥ half stopper was the issue I have instruments. A prior ♥ stopper sequence, Hearing no ♥ stop then relayer can bid 3♠= half stopper in 3 card? or he can bid 3NT= pass with half stopper in 2-card.
I can't have it all ;-)

By the way: Relayer, although a fit and a nice medium could have bid after 1♠, 2♣ too= n.f. (he still needs a max if a 5332 or 5422) But if a 6322 and 2 Aces he takes a risk

Because of the 1♠ bid ("opening"), relayer has important information on forehand regarding the tophon. in the main suit in a 5332 shape (if 6322 then later too). So this helps him how to proceed furtheron.
Those kind openings are used in 1st. or 2nd hand too for a 8-12p. range.