[Echognome]

Scoring: IMP

(2♣)* - P - (4♣)** - ?

---

*Precision style. 6+♣, 11-15hcp
**Preemptive

Your call?

[Free]

4♦

[lowerline]

Echognome, on Jun 8 2006, 12:35 AM, said:

Scoring: IMP

(2♣)* - P - (4♣)** - ?

---

*Precision style. 6+♣, 11-15hcp
**Preemptive

Your call?

Double and I will pass partner's response.

[whereagles]

Dbl and convert 4♠ to 5♦.

Fixed? No. Just misfortunate.

[Blofeld]

Double and pass if partner bids 4M (will raise 4♦ though).

[Codo]

4 NT, mho will take it as:

1. lowest two suits, fine
2. Natural, fine
3. any two suiter: fine
Okay, I would like to have 5/5 but I am not perfect and nor is my bidding...

BTW I would believe, that 4 NT shows any two suiter....

[pclayton]

I haven't gone out on a limb in awhile .

Pard is marked with very short clubs on this auction, probably a stiff.

The mainstream possibilities are: Dbl (passing 4S), Dbl (converting to 5D), and 4D.

4D is a nullo bid and only competes for the partscore.

Dbl and converting to 4S is a real crap shoot. My clubs are on the table, and the tap will happen at T2. While I might catch 6 spades it seems anti percentage to me.

Dbl and converting to 5D looks like a misevaluation to me. If we find hearts, we'll find them at the 5 level and from the wrong side.

My call: 4 hearts. I have a good chance of catching 4 and even if we have a Moysian, my KC protects against the tap. Further, the opps probably won't suspect the tap, so I will frequently get a trump lead. If pard only has 3 hearts I'll catch a good fit in a side suit.

[jdonn]

pclayton, on Jun 8 2006, 11:08 AM, said:

I haven't gone out on a limb in awhile .

Pard is marked with very short clubs on this auction, probably a stiff.

The mainstream possibilities are: Dbl (passing 4S), Dbl (converting to 5D), and 4D.

4D is a nullo bid and only competes for the partscore.

Dbl and converting to 4S is a real crap shoot. My clubs are on the table, and the tap will happen at T2. While I might catch 6 spades it seems anti percentage to me.

Dbl and converting to 5D looks like a misevaluation to me. If we find hearts, we'll find them at the 5 level and from the wrong side.

My call: 4 hearts. I have a good chance of catching 4 and even if we have a Moysian, my KC protects against the tap. Further, the opps probably won't suspect the tap, so I will frequently get a trump lead. If pard only has 3 hearts I'll catch a good fit in a side suit.

Does it look strange? yes.
Would it have occured to me? probably not.
Do I like it? I think so.

[joshs]

Interesting. It wouldn't have occured to me. And if I new for sure that LHO wasn't going to bid again, I am pretty sure you are right, but the possibility that LHO bids again, and partner raises me is a consideration:

If we make the assumption that partner has exactly 1 club then partner's average length in S,H,D is: 4.71,3.86,3.43

To compare the x and pass strategy vs the overcall 4H strategy
We are interested in two probabilitity comparisions:
1. P(partner has 4+ H) vs P(partner has 6+ S GIVEN that he bids spades over a x)
2. P(partner has 3+H) vs P(Partner has 5+S GIVEN that he bids spades over the x)

To answer the conditional probability question, the question is what does partner bid with 4-4 or 5-5 in the majors. I will assume that partner will consider suit quality, and otherwise pick hearts if its close. So lets say with equal length, 60% of the time partner picks hearts (I do have the JT9 so partner is much more likely to have spade intermediates).

Anyone on this list up to the task of computing the relevent probabilities, under the above assumptions?

[pclayton]

joshs, on Jun 8 2006, 01:05 PM, said:

Interesting. It wouldn't have occured to me. And if I new for sure that LHO wasn't going to bid again, I am pretty sure you are right, but the possibility that LHO bids again, and partner raises me is a consideration:

If we make the assumption that partner has exactly 1 club then partner's average length in S,H,D is: 4.71,3.86,3.43

To compare the x and pass strategy vs the overcall 4H strategy
We are interested in two probabilitity comparisions:
1. P(partner has 4+ H) vs P(partner has 6+ S GIVEN that he bids spades over a x)
2. P(partner has 3+H) vs P(Partner has 5+S GIVEN that he bids spades over the x)

To answer the conditional probability question, the question is what does partner bid with 4-4 or 5-5 in the majors. I will assume that partner will consider suit quality, and otherwise pick hearts if its close. So lets say with equal length, 60% of the time partner picks hearts (I do have the JT9 so partner is much more likely to have spade intermediates).

Anyone on this list up to the task of computing the relevent probabilities, under the above assumptions?

Josh - with 5 spades and 3 hearts it seems on balance better to be in 4♥, because of the positional considerations.

I think this is a great hand for a sim.

[Echognome]

Note: Major Edit

Instead of making another post, I found the hand record, so let me put down the exact hand.

Scoring: IMP

2♣ - P - 4♣ - Dbl
P - 4♦ - All Pass

---

How our teammates managed to stop in 4♦ is amazing. 4♥ by south is a good spot.

[Free]

What would north do after a 4♦ bid instead of Dbl? 5♦ is laydown as well I guess?

[Echognome]

Free, on Jun 9 2006, 02:18 PM, said:

What would north do after a 4♦ bid instead of Dbl? 5♦ is laydown as well I guess?

Something about the hand is not right. Hmm. I think north has 2 clubs and west only 6. I'll ask a friend if he has the hand records and sort it out.

[pclayton]

Echognome, on Jun 9 2006, 06:07 AM, said:

Here's the hand to the best of my recollection as I can't find the hand records now.

Scoring: IMP

2♣ - P - 4♣! - X
P - 4♦ - All pass

---

This was the bidding at the other table. 4♣ really put it to our teammates.

As you can see, 4♥ will probably work out (good job Phil!).

At our table, I opened 1♣ and bid a lousy 2♣ after it went P - P - Dbl. The opponents ended in 3NT with me on lead and had no trouble at all.

Ooh; 4♣ is an EVIL bid.

[pclayton]

Echognome, on Jun 9 2006, 06:07 AM, said:

Here's the hand to the best of my recollection as I can't find the hand records now.

Scoring: IMP

2♣ - P - 4♣! - X
P - 4♦ - All pass

---

This was the bidding at the other table.  4♣ really put it to our teammates.

As you can see, 4♥ will probably work out (good job Phil!).

At our table, I opened 1♣ and bid a lousy 2♣ after it went P - P - Dbl.  The opponents ended in 3NT with me on lead and had no trouble at all.

Ooh; 4♣ is an EVIL bid

OK - my browser posted this twice - it thinks its evil as well.

[joshs]

pclayton, on Jun 8 2006, 05:01 PM, said:

joshs, on Jun 8 2006, 01:05 PM, said:

Interesting. It wouldn't have occured to me. And if I new for sure that LHO wasn't going to bid again, I am pretty sure you are right, but the possibility that LHO bids again, and partner raises me is a consideration:

If we make the assumption that partner has exactly 1 club then partner's average length in S,H,D is: 4.71,3.86,3.43

To compare the x and pass strategy vs the overcall 4H strategy
We are interested in two probabilitity comparisions:
1. P(partner has 4+ H) vs P(partner has 6+ S GIVEN that he bids spades over a x)
2. P(partner has 3+H) vs P(Partner has 5+S GIVEN that he bids spades over the x)

To answer the conditional probability question, the question is what does partner bid with 4-4 or 5-5 in the majors. I will assume that partner will consider suit quality, and otherwise pick hearts if its close. So lets say with equal length, 60% of the time partner picks hearts (I do have the JT9 so partner is much more likely to have spade intermediates).

Anyone on this list up to the task of computing the relevent probabilities, under the above assumptions?

Josh - with 5 spades and 3 hearts it seems on balance better to be in 4♥, because of the positional considerations.

I think this is a great hand for a sim.

yes I agree. but there are at least 4 considerations:

a. positional
b. intermediates are really important in a 7 card fit and you are looking at the heart intermediates
c. repeated taps seem more damaging in spades
d. on the other hand having the weak hand's suit as trumps gives him entries, so that is one plus for spades

Anyway, my only point was:
To first order you want to maximize:
a. the probability that you are in a 8 card trump fit (get to good spot)
and minimize
b. the probability that you have less than 7 trumps (avoid disaster)

I think the question about which 7 card fit will play better is important but not as important as a and b.