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Blind Lead

#1 User is offline   Echognome 

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Posted 2006-March-09, 06:26

Scoring: IMP

2NT - 6♥
All Pass


They say that those who think leads are blind must be deaf.

Well here was a lead I had to find last night and I certainly felt blind and deaf!

RHO is an international, but on the other hand, this is isn't such an important event.

At least your choices of suit are limited.
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#2 User is offline   FrancesHinden 

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Posted 2006-March-09, 06:49

On this sort of auction I am agressive.
Low diamond.
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#3 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2006-March-09, 07:20

Yeah, low ♦ wtp? :P
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#4 User is offline   hatchett 

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Posted 2006-March-09, 07:30

Low diamond is my choice as well
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#5 User is offline   Codo 

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Posted 2006-March-09, 08:31

yes ♦ through the strong hand looks great
Kind Regards

Roland

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#6 Guest_Jlall_*

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Posted 2006-March-09, 08:48

A spade is an agressive lead as well, and has less of a risk of blowing a trick. On the other hand with a diamond lead we may cash the AK (stranger things have happened) or we may eliminate one of declarer's lines of play (diamond hook if he has a stiff). So I'll go with a diamond.
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#7 User is offline   Walddk 

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Posted 2006-March-09, 09:01

Diamond for the simple reason that I need less in partner's hand to set up a trick than I do in spades (queen instead of king). A passive club is out of the question. I don't go passive on this auction.

Roland
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#8 User is offline   FrancesHinden 

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Posted 2006-March-09, 09:04

Yes, a diamond is also our best chance of cashing the first two tricks.
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#9 User is offline   pclayton 

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Posted 2006-March-09, 09:37

The ♦ lead is the book lead here. Seems normal on this bidding (RHO probably has something he wants to hide).
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#10 User is offline   Walddk 

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Posted 2006-March-09, 09:39

pclayton, on Mar 9 2006, 04:37 PM, said:

(RHO probably has something he wants to hide).

150 honours? :P

Roland
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#11 User is offline   mikeh 

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Posted 2006-March-09, 10:50

I consider this lead problem to be neither blind nor deaf.

RHO's auction allows us to draw some inferences, albeit not as clearly as we might like. We can draw inferences from what he did not do: he did not transfer and then use some form of keycard, exclusion or regular, nor did he transfer and cue bid.

He should have 7+♥ and a hand based on playing strength, not especially rich in high cards (he did not even try to see if grand was possible and he had no interest in opener's degree of fit). Thus, given that dummy will afford some fillers for his side suits or pitches for losers, we can assume that we have a chance of beating this contract if we find the right lead (we have to assume that anyway, of course). More importantly, because he has a lot of winners, we will, more often than not, have to be aggressive on opening lead.

That need for aggression strongly suggests a ♦ lead, as everyone so far seems to conclude.
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#12 User is offline   Echognome 

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Posted 2006-March-10, 06:56

Boo. Everyone found the diamond lead. I thought it was the automatic lead given the auction and it turned out to be the right one. You cash partner's ace and your king and tuck the children into bed. Your teammates sensibly stopped in game. They were impressed we found the lead. Go figure, they needn't have been.
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#13 User is offline   Trumpace 

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Posted 2006-March-10, 10:19

Walddk, on Mar 9 2006, 10:01 AM, said:

Diamond for the simple reason that I need less in partner's hand to set up a trick than I do in spades (queen instead of king).

Why is finding the ♦Q more likely than finding the ♠K with partner?

One reason I can think of is, if partner has enough points to have a King, then he can have the ♦Q and any Jack instead, which makes the ♦Q more likely than any K. (I don't think is very simple reasoning, maybe it is for most advanced players)

On this hand the above reasoning works fine, but I think I have seen authors state it (Q easier to find than K) without any supporting reason against game contracts etc where we can account for partner not holding any Jacks (we hold them!)

Are there any obvious reasons? (point count is not too convincing, what is 1 point here or there?)
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