Posted 2006-January-23, 17:42
I can see no reason for West to not overcall an immediate 1NT. Here's why:
1. NV versus V
2. You like all transfers
3. You have clubs triple-stopped
4. KEY: You have five "finessable positions."
This last comment might need more explanation. Honors lower than the Ace get some value from expected trick taking capacity. When expectations are increased, because of known value in front of the lower honors, then the expectation of trick-taking ability increases. Hence, the value of the honors increases. Five honors gain value from position here (all but the club Ace). If this "value" is worth anything (it is), then it must be worth at least .2 HCP's per honor. Hence, this is clearly a 15-count by this valuation.
Consider an alternative hand. Axx-Axx-Axx-Axxx is surely a 16-count, and will assuredly produce 4 tricks. But, little else is offered.
The actual hand (KJx-xxx-Kxx-AQJx) has a realistic possibility of producing six honor-based tricks, assuming advancer to have entries. Splitting the finesses 50-50 yields 2.5 tricks, plus 1 for the Ace, or 3.5 tricks. Hence, you produce an expected four tricks on average if position only barely tilts finesses in your favor. Give partner some values, and more finesses will be forced to work.
For the matter, assume a raise to 2NT. I'd rather accept with the actual hand than with Axx-Axx-Axx-Axxx, and would probably make more often.
Thus, I reject the idea that West is not strong enough for 1NT. The error is 100% West's. Blaming Est for not balancing on that garbage, or not overcalling (terrible hand, no real lead preference), is quite amazing to me.
"Gibberish in, gibberish out. A trial judge, three sets of lawyers, and now three appellate judges cannot agree on what this law means. And we ask police officers, prosecutors, defense lawyers, and citizens to enforce or abide by it? The legislature continues to write unreadable statutes. Gibberish should not be enforced as law."
-P.J. Painter.
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