[Winstonm]

Scoring: IMP

1♠ p 1N p
2♥ p ?

Do you pass or raise?

---

This hand came up tonight and made me ponder how strong others play a jump shift after a forcing NT. In the given sequence, how big of hand can opener hold?

If the jump shift sequence is not 100% game force, how does one compensate?
If it is not, where do you draw the line on a "courtesy" raise?

Winston

[awm]

This is one of the problems with 2/1, and one of the (many) reasons I prefer not to play the forcing notrump convention. From the 2/1 players I've talked to, the consensus is that hands like this are a 3♥ bid and that with 10-12 points and four hearts you basically blast game and hope for the best.

[ArcLight]

>This is one of the problems with 2/1, and one of the (many) reasons I prefer not to play the forcing notrump convention. From the 2/1 players I've talked to, the consensus is that hands like this are a 3♥ bid and that with 10-12 points and four hearts you basically blast game and hope for the best.

I dont like this. Your spade shortness is not necessarily an asset as it may be difficult to set up spades, your diamonds are probably of no value, the AQ of Clubs is nice though.

I'd bid 3♥. Pard will need 15+ for game. He hasn't shown that from the bidding yet. Its true this is IMPS, but I'd still bid 3 ♥ with this, not 4 ♥.

[Kalvan14]

Pass is not under consideration. You can construct a lot of 15 HCP hands with a play for 4♥. 1♠-1N-2♥ can reach up to 17 HCP, so there is a lot of space.
3♥ is the right bid, considering the dubious value of the ♠ singleton.
To bid 4♥ I would really like to have a prime 11-12 HCP (and probably it would be a balanced hand with 3 spades and 4 hearts )

[flytoox]

I think this hand worths a raise to game.

[mike777]

flytoox, on Nov 7 2005, 12:32 AM, said:

I think this hand worths a raise to game.

Wow, well you will not miss many games playing that style.
3H here.

[cherdano]

Of course, this situation is a little nicer playing riton or Gazzilli. If partner bid 2♥ directly as here, I can pass this hand. If he riton'ed first via 2♣-2♦-2♥, I think this hand is close between 3♥ and 4♥.

Arend

[Robert]

hello everyone

That example hand is worth a 3H bid in any form of bridge.

Vulnerable at IMPS or rubber bridge is it probably a 4H bid. You only have to make game about 38% of the time vulnerable at IMPs. If partner is not a good declarer, you can just bid 3H.

I have seen different methods played for the jump shift of 1NT. Some play that it is a one round force. I like to play that it is forcing to game when I play natural methods.

I normally do not have to worry about whether it is forcing or not. I play a Big Club type base and 11-15HCP openerings. My jump is defined as a maximum hand with 6S and 5Hs.

I also play a 2D* toy that shows 5-5 majors 10-13HCP. My 2H rebid cannot be weaker than 14HCP with 5-5 majors.

Regards,
Robert

[EricK]

I have just read about Mike Lawrence's trick valuation estimates on his website (although I haven't read the book - "I Fought the Law").

Can anybody who understands the method tell me if I understand it correctly?

Firstly SST: I have a singleton, partner has either a singleton, two doubletons, or a void. A SST of 2 or 3 seems reasonable (or do I subtract one because of the second doubleton in the 5422 case? In which case I should definitely be using 2).

Now WP: My ♣Q and ♦J may not be working so say I have 5. We don't know much about partner's hand so give him 12WP giving a total of 17WP (It might be lower than 12 if some of his ♠ aren't working, but it might be much more even on a minimum hand eg with ♣K). This gives a downwards adjustment of 1 trick

Now tricks should be 13-2.5-1 which is 9.5 (or 10 depending on how you count SST).

So this agrees with Justin who said this is closer to 4♥ than Pass.

Eric

[Chamaco]

I think that this had is yet another example of the reasons why after the F1NT, responder can have great benefits by using 1st step except the pref to opener's suit as "Lebensohl/Good-bad".

Here I would strongly advocate the use of 2NT as goodbad, giving up the natural NT invite.

This way it would be possible to discriminate, in this specific case:
- good raises to 3H from bad raises to 3H
- good hands with a long minor from bad hands with a long minor
- other hand types with good/bad suport in spades

We give up the 2NT "to play" when the sequence is 1S-1NT-2H or 1S-1NT-2S (in other squences, responder will have 2X available as "Good bad relay", and still have available the natural 2NT).
I am ready to pay this price (occasionally I'll play 3M in a 5-2 fit, I've played worse contracts....).

[bearmum]

Winstonm, on Nov 7 2005, 04:51 PM, said:

Scoring: IMP

1♠ p 1N p
2♥ p ?

Do you pass or raise?

---

This hand came up tonight and made me ponder how strong others play a jump shift after a forcing NT.  In the given sequence, how big of hand can opener hold?

If the jump shift sequence is not 100% game force, how does one compensate?
If it is not, where do you draw the line on a "courtesy" raise?

Winston

since when is 1♠ 1NT 2 (ONLY 2)♥ a JUMPSHIFT!!

as I understand 2/1 the 2♥ only shows <16 points and 5/4 ♠/♥ (or I am misunderstanding 2/1??)


As hands lie (and bidding stated ) I PASS 2♥ blink:

[Chamaco]

bearmum, on Nov 7 2005, 10:47 AM, said:

As hands lie (and bidding stated ) I PASS 2♥ blink:

Passing is a big risk: if pard has a 13-15 count with 55 in majors or 5413, there are significant chances of game...

[mr1303]

The reference to jump shifts was to do with the negative inference when he partner doesn't make one.

I.e. is 1S 1NT 3H 100% GF, or just showing a goodish hand. If it is game forcing, then opener can have plenty of good hands (sometimes up to 18-19 HCP) and only bid 2H.

Whereas if it just shows a goodish hand with (presumably) 5-5 shape, then 2H would usually show a minimum opening.

[joker_gib]

Automatic 3♥ for me. 4♥ will be an overbid and partner can still pass with a minimum.

Alain

[Chamaco]

EricK, on Nov 7 2005, 08:16 AM, said:

I have just read about Mike Lawrence's trick valuation estimates on his website (although I haven't read the book - "I Fought the Law").

Can anybody who understands the method tell me if I understand it correctly?

Remarkably, in most hands the FTL approach gives pretty similar results to the Losing Trick Count.

Indeed, FTL is more accurate than LTC in that is accounts explicitly for "working" cards, but LTC is easier and faster to compute. at the table
(Also, LTC tends to converge with most ZAR hand evaluations)

All in all, it seems to me that using LTC with a grain of salt (e.g. downgrading with hands where honors/shortness are misfitting) tends to be easier and quicker, and produce similar results.

[Al_U_Card]

The courtesy part of the raise is towrds partner being "controlled" in his enthusiasm for showing 2 suited hands with few losers but a reasonable amount of hcp. 3 ♥ here is easy as pard can have a lot of minimum hands that will even have a play for game. (MP being less problematic than Imps.)

[mike777]

EricK, on Nov 7 2005, 03:16 AM, said:

I have just read about Mike Lawrence's trick valuation estimates on his website (although I haven't read the book - "I Fought the Law").

Can anybody who understands the method tell me if I understand it correctly?

Firstly SST: I have a singleton, partner has either a singleton, two doubletons, or a void.  A SST of 2 or 3 seems reasonable (or do I subtract one because of the second doubleton in the 5422 case? In which case I should definitely be using 2).

Now WP: My ♣Q and ♦J may not be working so say I have 5. We don't know much about partner's hand so give him 12WP giving a total of 17WP (It might be lower than 12 if some of his ♠ aren't working, but it might be much more even on a minimum hand eg with ♣K). This gives a downwards adjustment of 1 trick

Now tricks should be 13-2.5-1 which is 9.5 (or 10 depending on how you count SST).

So this agrees with Justin who said this is closer to 4♥ than Pass.

Eric

Using FTL
13-4-0=9 tricks
13=total tricks
4=estimated combined 2 short suits, 1 in my hand, 3 in partners
0=estimated 19 working hcp.

I would only invite with 3H. If partner has more shortness or whcp I would expect her to also use FTL and bid more.

LTC
I think my hand is 8 losers so I invite with 3 hearts and expect partner to bid 4 with a 6 loser hand or shortness/shape.

[han]

cherdano, on Nov 7 2005, 12:51 AM, said:

Of course, this situation is a little nicer playing riton or Gazzilli. If partner bid 2♥ directly as here, I can pass this hand. If he riton'ed first via 2♣-2♦-2♥, I think this hand is close between 3♥ and 4♥.

Arend

It's been a while since I disagreed with Arend, but here is one. Playing Riton I might still raise to 3H (although I would probably pass) but if the auction went 1S-1NT-2C-2D-2H then I would certainly bid game!


Adam, could you explain how 2/1 and forcing notrump change this situation? Would opener ever pass 1NT playing SAYC with 5-4 in the majors? I agree with your comment that forcing 1NT is not pretty, but it seems to me that there is no difference for this particular situation.

[Winstonm]

mr1303, on Nov 7 2005, 07:29 AM, said:

The reference to jump shifts was to do with the negative inference when he partner doesn't make one.

I.e. is 1S 1NT 3H 100% GF, or just showing a goodish hand. If it is game forcing, then opener can have plenty of good hands (sometimes up to 18-19 HCP) and only bid 2H.

Whereas if it just shows a goodish hand with (presumably) 5-5 shape, then 2H would usually show a minimum opening.

Exactly. Thanks.