Mission impossible
#1
Posted 2003-September-25, 08:24
North:
Ax
T652
J
AKJ652
South:
Kxxx
J
Axxx
Qxxx
Nobody vul, South dealer, if south passes West opens 1NT (!) How do you bid these hands?
Curious note: My mother Ana playing with her pd opened the south hand playing Moscito and got to 6 clubs redoubled (!!) +1830 take this!!!
#3
Posted 2003-September-25, 13:16
Ax
T652
J
AKJ652
South:
Kxxx
J
Axxx
Qxxx
This is a great hand for relay systems. But if south passed or west dealt it is problematic for everyone.
Was 1NT strong or weak? Over 1NT, I like Woolsey where DBL over 1NT shows 4M and longer minor, and using this you have a chance to bid the game and very outside chance to bid slam. On a "good day", the bidding might be (note a helpful double in here by the opponents with forcing pass implications and redoubles would help you)....
Pass (1NT) DBL (Pass)
2D (Pass) 2H (Pass)
2NT (Pass) 3H (Pass)
? (Pass)
2D = show major
2S = Pass/Correct showing spades and support both minors
2NT = asking bid
3H = maximum hand, clubs
Over 3H's. responder can cue-bid 3S, or try his hand at 3NT. Over 3NT, north probably passes, over 3S, north will cue-bid 4D, south 4H, north 4S, now slam is at least in the picture, although either partner my develop cold feet and signoff in clubs.
Note the 2NT after 1N-X-P-2D-P-2M-P-2NT.... is the same as after 1N-X-P-2NT, with 3C = min clubs, 3D = min diamonds, 3H = max Clubs, and 3S = max and Spades
Still a very difficult hand to bid. Next, how are you going to get them to double you in 6C's., and how are you ever going to be sure enough to redouble without relay system. :-) And finally, are how are you going to make this on a trump opening lead (or course, opener leader good chance to be void in clubs), and second trump when you lose a heart. 6C in hand, 2S, 1D, and two heart ruffs is 11, and without the Club T9, dummy looks short of entries for dummy reversal (4 trumps, 2S, 2S ruff, 1D, 3D ruffs).
Ben
#4
Posted 2003-September-25, 14:28
That's why he will double 6c without hesitation (sQJ, h AKQ, dKQ just too many spots) The heart lead is almost automatic with AKQ and you can always make 6 on a heart lead and any continuation.
She redoubled because if 6c was down 1 200 would be the same as 100 and if 6cxx makes they will be devastated. Right she was.
#5
Posted 2003-September-26, 02:19
please bid those slams against me, I would like to take the automatic + 200
You look at 17 HCPs including AKQ of H. They bid 6 Club.
What do you lead? Surely a club and when you are in again another club. This will only loose to a heart lead, if they can create a quick discard on spades and should be the only choosen led.
For the bidding: Against a strong NT I simply play DONT. So I would X 1 NT with the North hand. I think, that East has 5 hearts and will bid them, so I guess the bidding will be something like:
West North East South
pass
1 NT X 2 Heart X (t.o)
pass 3 Club all pass?!
all pass. Okay, no success, but better then 6C XX -1 :-))
Kind Regards
Roland
Roland
Sanity Check: Failure (Fluffy)
More system is not the answer...
#6
Posted 2003-September-26, 03:23
I totally agree with Roland. The H lead is definitely NOT automatic. Holding the hand you described, the only likely legitimate way declarer can come to 12 tricks is by ruffing; a trump lead is a standout. I'd like to be playing those opps!
#7
Posted 2003-September-29, 01:42
P - (1NT) - 2C(*) - (P)
2NT !
*2C = aspro, hearts and another suit
! 2NT by advancer = splinter in hearts and good hand.
The method is designed for precisely this hand type.
Being a passed hand makes it easier for us to make this call as we have a maximum . FOr an unpassed hand, the requirements would be a lot stricter.
To answer the question as to why 2NT should not be natural (if we are unpassed hand) , the idea is that all such hands would go via 2D forcing relay.
#8
Posted 2003-September-29, 03:12
What is the full hand of 1NT opener? If he has only 3 diamonds and AKQ of hearts, then even a trump lead will not defeat the slam. It also depends a lot on the diamond pips in the south hand - say A9xx and 1NT opener has KQTx , then also it will be possible to make the slam - it may be just a question of judging the layout. Then, I guess we may not feel too happy playing such opponents!!
#9
Posted 2003-September-29, 03:48
#10
Posted 2003-September-29, 12:53
Nobody vul.
South dealer.
A2
T652
J
AKJ652
QJ64 T93
AKQ3 9874
KQ3 T8754
74 T
K875
J
A962
Q983
At my table west opened a strong 1NT and played there for down 4. Undoubled.
#11
Posted 2003-September-29, 21:59
The hand becomes a little more interesting if West hand is QJ6 , AKQ3 , KQT3 , 74 (diamond T in east hand swapped with spade 4). Even this will make on a trump lead - try it out !!!
#12
Posted 2003-September-30, 00:58
But I think, I would still like to play opps, who bid to a small slam against a strong NT which needs the given hands to make. Maybe someone can find out the percentages, but I guess, they are not in favour to bid the slam. To reach 5 club would be absolute sufficent to reach a top result, so where is the need to bid 6?
Kind Regards
Roland
Roland
Sanity Check: Failure (Fluffy)
More system is not the answer...
#13
Posted 2003-September-30, 01:42
#14
Posted 2003-September-30, 03:59
Quote
Nobody vul.
South dealer.
A2
T652
J
AKJ652
QJ64 T93
AKQ3 9874
KQ3 T8754
74 T
K875
J
A962
Q983
At my table west opened a strong 1NT and played there for down 4. Undoubled.
May I start a subthread here?
Who would pass the East hand after 1NT (P)?
It seems automatic (to me) to try and rescue with 2C. Here it mightn't be good because NS have a game, but how often (in general) do they bid games against a strong NT?
Eric
#15
Posted 2003-September-30, 06:37
Quote
The hand always makes if 1NT opener has AKQ of hearts (either it will come down in 3 cards or there will be a double squeeze with either spade or diamond as the pivot suit - you may have to guess which).
And now some percentages. I just ran a simulation with following assumptions
1. 1NT hand should have 15-17 HCP
2. 2+ cards in each suit
3. Max 6 diamonds , 5 hearts/spades
4. If 5 spades then no side 4 suit
5. If 5 hearts than no 4 diamonds (may have 4 spades + 5 hearts 4-5-2-2 rebid problems)
6. No 5 diamonds + 4 spades
There were total of 48388 combinations and not surprisingly 35028 out of these had AKQ of hearts (2700 were 5 hearts + 4 spades if you wish to ignore them) and the slam looks very good.
Frankly, rather than scoffing at opponents who manage to bid a slam on these hands, I should really be admiring their ability to reach this slam!!
#16
Posted 2003-September-30, 06:48
West North East South
2d(1)
Dbl 2N(2) Pass 3c(3)
Pass 3d(4) Pass 3s(5)
Pass 4h(6) Pass 4n(7)
Pass 6c Pass Pass
Dbl Rdbl Pass Pass
Pass
(1): 10-14 Three suited hand with 4/5 clubs
(2): Positive INV+ asking bid
(3): Some 4441 (no void)
(4): Relay
(5): 4=1=4=4
(6): Asking for controls hearts excluded
(7): 3
Knowing that your pd is 10-14 HCP 4-1-4-4 with 3 controls I think that both the 6c bid and the redouble by north are very reasonable.
#17
Posted 2003-September-30, 07:37
okay, now I got it. I still want to play these opps:
I will learn much more about the game, even while loosing 0-25....
I like the simulation you made. Maybe there is just one case, you did not consider: North bid the slam without knowing about the jack of Hearts. Pd may have the Queen of spade or diamond instead.
But without the single jack, chances shood be much worse then with it, am I right?
Kind Regards
Roland
Roland
Sanity Check: Failure (Fluffy)
More system is not the answer...
#18
Posted 2003-September-30, 21:10
If the auction went as Luis described in his most recent post, why did West X? West would have had the same information as the relay asker.
Following from Ben's next post - yes, Luis did say that there was a 2D opening. I am still surprised at the X and I am even still more surprised at the lead, given the fact that Sth's shape is known.
#19
Posted 2003-September-30, 21:22
Quote
If the auction went as Luis described in his most recent post, why did West X? West would have had the same information as the relay asker.
To be fair to Luis, the original post was to illustrate how to bid the slam if you passed with the south hand. The point being if you passed THEN west would open 1NT. I think this is consistent... with the original post. I am curious too, however, to see how people appoach the north hand if South had passed.
Ben
#20
Posted 2003-September-30, 22:41
Quote
But without the single jack, chances shood be much worse then with it, am I right?
Hi Codo,
I ran the simulation with the known NS hands. Without the Heart Jack the chances will be less but then you cannot find each and every spot card (e.g. if South has AT98 then chances shoot up dramatically - even just ATxx of diamonds or KTxx of spades makes it much better or if 1NT opener has 5 hearts it does not matter who has the heart jack).
I am sure you also must have sometime or the other landed up in much worse contracts than these but none would have really considered you as easy meat. I was only disagreeing with your comments that a pair who reaches a slam on these hands is weak.
Regards