[Echognome]

Scoring: MP

1NT - All Pass

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You are playing a weak NT and your opening bid is passed out.

You get the lead of the ♥2 and your opponents are playing standard leads (i.e. 4th from length). What do you play at trick 1? What is your plan remembering that you are playing MPs?

East's play to the first trick is hidden here:

Spoiler

East plays the Q of hearts. Assuming you win the A, what do you play next?

[coyot]

Playing MPs, the only easy way of scoring more than 7 tricks is to guess clubs correctly.
If I play small heart, I end up in hand - and I don't want to play ANY suit from hand. So I play the king of hearts and run the club nine. If it drives out the ace, I will then win a heart and exit in another heart, hoping for the opps to give me an extra trick in spades or diamonds. Anyway I have 2H, 2 aces and 4 clubs for +1.

Playing low, overtaking the queen with ace has little merit, because I have no good suit to return. Everything played from hand costs a trick.

[Fluffy]

play ♥10, and if ♥ return win ♥K+♣ to the ♣J

[FrancesHinden]

Echognome, on Aug 31 2005, 02:48 AM, said:

Scoring: MP

1NT - All Pass

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You are playing a weak NT and your opening bid is passed out.

Although funnily enough I seem to have been dealt a strong NT. Isn't that a bit good for a 12-14 1NT opening?

I also win the lead in dummy and run the 9 of clubs. I assume it loses, or this wouldn't be a problem...

[pclayton]

I'm fine with a 12-14 NT too. Would you open this with a 15-17 NT if you were playing that? I wouldn't. The 5 card suit is nice, but the Qx and unsupported aces are suspect.

I win the 1st heart on the board. Theres no point to keeping a positional double heart stopper against LHO by winning in hand. Its the diamond suit I worry about, and I want to keep LHO on lead to not effectively attack that suit. If I play clubs out of hand, RHO can win and switch to a diamond, which might prove awkward if he has both club entries without the K♦.

[han]

Yep, I'll go with the straightforward line too, although I like Fluffy's!

I might have opened a 15-17 NT, this hand is right on the edge imo. I would not upgrade the hand playing weak NT's. One of the biggest disadvantages of opening a weak 1NT at MP is missing a 4-4 major suit fit, unlikely with this hand. Actually, my argument for opening a strong NT is the same.

[han]

Let me tell you something even weirder Justin: I would open 1NT when playing 14-16 too!


But more seriously, I have heard that computer simulations show that weak 1NT-ers lose on average 1/2 an IMP on the hands they open 1NT compared to strong NT-ers (who open 1m). I don't know if this is reliable info, and whether this research was done while only looking at a pair of hands or while looking at a full deal (anybody who knows this? tysen2k?). If this is done while looking at only 2 hands then that makes a lot of sense: the auction 1m-1M-1NT shows the same hand but you have already exchanged more information. However, the biggest problem seems to be missing 4-4 major suit fits on hands where partner can't act over 1NT, especially at MP. With 3325 shape you don't have this problem, so opening 1NT loses less, while you gain the competitive advantage and the comfort that comes with the familiar NT structure. An extra reason to upgrade to 1NT.


Perhaps this is far too much bidding theory on a play problem, sorry Matt. Looking forward to seeing your solution, I expect that you have a point to make.

[Al_U_Card]

Non sequitor alert! In my bad old days of 10-12 NT, I would have opened this hand 1D! (13-15 balanced or 11+ any shape with 4+D) to which pard would respond 1NT (7-9) and get a likely D lead.....and start the C asap from declarer's hand.

[tysen2k]

Hannie, on Aug 31 2005, 02:06 PM, said:

But more seriously, I have heard that computer simulations show that weak 1NT-ers lose on average 1/2 an IMP on the hands they open 1NT compared to strong NT-ers (who open 1m). I don't know if this is reliable info, and whether this research was done while only looking at a pair of hands or while looking at a full deal (anybody who knows this? tysen2k?).

My simulations show that weak NT is pretty much just as good as strong NT (perhaps this is the reason there is always an argument for which is better?). You have to consider not only the times you open, but the times where you don't open 1N as well. Those negative inferences can be important.

What my simulations did show that the weaker your NT gets, the more important it is not to include a 5cM in it. With 15-17 you should include the 5cM, with 12-14 it's about a wash if you include it or not, weaker than that and you're better off not having the 5cM. The weaker you are, the more likely you'll want to be in 2M rather than 1NT.

However what's more important than all of these is how it fits into the rest of your system. All of the above is small compared to what you could lose if the rest of the system doesn't mesh with it.

I personally use a 11-15 NT with no 4cM.

Tysen

[han]

Thanks for your quick reply Tysen, but I don't think that this is an answer to my question.

I did not ask for a comparison between weak and strong NT, I asked for a comparison of the two treatments restricted only to the 12-14 balanced hands.

The research that I am quoting (without knowing if it is true) says that you will do better on the hands you don't open 1NT, and do worse on the hands that you do open 1NT on. The reason I asked this is that we were considering upgrading this hand or not. So this is not a question of which system to play, but how to apply the system best.


I would consider the following an interesting simulation problem: With a balanced hand (5332 pattern), 14HCP, 2 10's (or perhaps better ~14.75 BUMRAP if possible) and a decent (at least 2 honors) 5-card minor, will you do better or worse when you upgrade this hand to 15 points when you play (a) 12-14 1NT openings (and thus open in the minor) and ( 15-17 1NT openings (and thus open 1NT)?

Jlall and I think that the answer is "worse" for (a) and "better" for (. It would be nice to know if computer simulations suggest that we are correct (hope I'm not putting words in your mouth Justin)

[han]

In other words, I'm not interested in "what treatment is better", but in "what is the best way to bid given a treatment".

To those who want to be better bridge players this should be a more relevant question imo.

[Double !]

I would win first trick in dummy and play clubs normally. Why? To some degree, because this is an avoidance play: I don't want my rho in early and shifting to a diamond. Assuming that i have 3 club tricks, i also have 1S, 2H & 1D and that = 7. In addition, I need dummy's little heart to pitch on the long club, and I might have endplay positions after running the clubs, depending on what shakes out. The heart ten might become my throw-in card: don't know at this point.

[tysen2k]

Hannie, on Aug 31 2005, 04:34 PM, said:

I would consider the following an interesting simulation problem: With a balanced hand (5332 pattern), 14HCP, 2 10's (or perhaps better ~14.75 BUMRAP if possible) and a decent (at least 2 honors) 5-card minor, will you do better or worse when you upgrade this hand to 15 points when you play (a) 12-14 1NT openings (and thus open in the minor) and ( 15-17 1NT openings (and thus open 1NT)?

That's a tougher question to answer. I think you'd have to use something like GIB's simulation capability to answer it. I was trying to do just that, but I think there is a rule in GIB where if the book bid is 1NT then always bid it without simulating. So it won't simulate to consider other bids. Sorry.

Tysen

[Chamaco]

I also win the lead in dummy and run the C9.

the reason is:
- I have more extra tricks to gain from clubs than a potential 3rd trick in hearts.
Also, even if they knock hearts, the 2H lad shows that they will score 2 tricks in hearts.
Meanwhile, I'll have clubs set up.

[Echognome]

Scoring: MP

1NT - All Pass

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I offered this hand up because I believe I misplayed it at the table. It offered up some interesting points however.

Trick 1: ♥2 - 5 - Q - A

At trick 1, I indeed saw what everyone here seemed to see. If I win this trick in hand I will not have any good continuation from my hand. However, if the opening lead has been made from QJx2, then it would be quite silly to put up the K. The question is whether the lead is more likely made from Jxxx, Qxxx, or QJxx (or possibly from a short suit). The other advantage of playing low was having the positional extra trick with the 10 as was the case when the defense slipped. After I saw the Q I wasn't too pleased, but then tried the effect of leading the ♣K. West won the Ace and immediately gave me my trick back by leading another heart!

Trick 2: ♣K - A - 7 - 2
Trick 3: ♥2! - 6 - 8 - 10

When I cleared the club suit, East decided to clear hearts, which you will see aided in the overall crumbling of the defense.

Trick 4: ♣3 - 6 - 8 - Q
Trick 5: ♥3 - 7 -4 - K

This was my next to last entry to dummy and I wanted to lead towards my diamond queen while I still could, so lead a diamond up. I guess West decided that I must have the J for this play, so after cashing his long heart (his partner discarding an encouraging spade) made the last (and fatal) mistake of returning the spade K.

Trick 6: ♦5 - 6 - Q - K
Trick 7: ♥J - ♠6 - ♠9 - ♠2
Trick 8: ♠K - 10 - 5 - A

The position was now:

Scoring: MP

1NT - All Pass

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On the run of the 3 clubs pitching the ♠ J from dummy, East is nicely squeezed. At the table he kept his spade guard, but thought it would have been prettier if I could have scored my ♠4.

I thought an undeserved 9 tricks as playing the ♥K at once from dummy would have made life a lot easier. Well done all.

[Fluffy]

Hannie, on Aug 31 2005, 07:06 PM, said:

Let me tell you something even weirder Justin: I would open 1NT when playing 14-16 too!

So overall it seems everyone will open 1NT, except if playing 13-15

[han]

Thanks for trying Tysen.