[xx1943]

Dealer: North Vul: None Scoring: IMP

♠ AJ72 ♥ KQ9762 ♦ 5 ♣ J4

West North East South

 -     Pass  3♣    ????


Hi all

this hand came up in ACBL and my decision proofed to be wrong.
I'm interested to hear what is your bid.

Here the link to the movie for those, who are interested.

Regards

Al

[coyot]

Pass.
Max 22 HCP, no need to get involved on 3rd level unless partner has VERY good hand - and in that case, I am sure he will reopen 3♣.

[mikeh]

It is tempting to be swayed by the suggestion (contained in the poll) that we will be doubled after bidding 3♥.

However, at the table I could not imagine doing anything else, and, having done so, you cannot run...

As for the bid in the first place, there are many non-opening hands for partner where game is cold.

Double is wrong. You cannot handle a 3♦ response (3♥ now shows a good, long ♥ suit, and decent ♠ support, but it is an enormous overbid).

As for running: LHO is a moron if 3♥ is the only contract he can beat

If you run to 3♠, there is a strong likelihood that poor partner may have to choose between leaving you in a 4=3 or 4=2 fit (with the long hand being tapped) or running back to a 6-2 or 6-1 fit a level higher!

The good news is that this is imps and there is a good likelihood of a push or even a pickup: I fully intend to play this hand a trick better than my counterpart

[coyot]

mikeh, on Aug 9 2005, 06:16 PM, said:

As for the bid in the first place, there are many non-opening hands for partner where game is cold.

Sure there are many. There are also many, where you will go down a million.

I'm not a math wizard, but I think that the odds for a GOOD game are not worth the risk here.

Sure, partner could have 7-8 HCP in major suits - but any minor wastage dooms you.
Major suit breaks tend to be bad for you as well. Even doubleton Ace in trump suit does not save the day.

Maybe having singleton club and doubleton diamond would make the hand worth bidding - but here, everything speaks against bidding.

[pbleighton]

I hate to pass, but:

Agree with coyot, pass.

Bidding is chasing waterfalls, IMO.

Peter

[the hog]

Partner is a passed hand. I pass. There are too many hands on which partner will raise to 4H and I have a snowball's chance in hell of making.

[mikeh]

I have taken an informal poll of some good players (multiple Canadian and North American championships between them): I gave them the hand and the auction and asked what they would call over 3♣. Note that I did not hint that 3♥, if bid, would get doubled.

The (small) sample was unanimous: 3♥, although with varying degrees of enthusiasm.

My suspicion is that at least some of the passers were influenced by the hint of a double. Certainly, bidding is far more consistent with modern expert practice, at least in North America.

Is it safe? No

Is passing safe? An even more resounding NO

To quote Bobby Wolff from many issues of the Bridge World: on this hand it is too dangerous to pass

[P_Marlowe]

Hi,

if I would know that I will get a penalty pass
after a 3H overcall, I would not make the call.
But how should I know.

Marlowe

[helene_t]

3♥ and then sit, or pass. I think it's close. I voted 3♥. Six-four-bid-more as my favorite author says.

This is a case for mandatory light openings in first and second seat. If I knew that partner was broke it would have been easier.

[coyot]

I have this feeling that everyone here is an optimist or that noone wants to defend .

What you should bear in mind:

RHO rates to have (on average) 7-8 HCP. That leaves 21-22 HCP between your partner and LHO. Since you know your partner's upper limit, while no limit applies to LHO, I think the probability is against you...

What is the statistically most probable shape of your partner?

Clubs quite likely divide 7222
Shape or RHO is quite likely the same (2227)
Hearts tend to be 6322 as well.

Given the cards you see, you can expect partner at best with something like 3262, 4252 or, the ideal 4342.

Give the RHO any major singleton and LHO almost sure has a trick-costing major holding!

Bidding 3♥ would be really betting your neck on partner's sharp values.
From the remaining 29 HCP, fully 12 would be a waste (KQJ in both minors).

So, even if partner has the statistical 9-11 HCP, 37% of it is garbage. In the long run, partner will have 6-7 working HCP. What are the game probabilites of your hand against 6-7 good HCP?

Only with spade K10 and heart Axx the game looks good. (apart from singleton club with LHO and trup promotion of his J10x.)

Any other holdings carry the same or bigger risks.

And, if partner happens to have a GOOD hand (singleton club and some sharp values), I trust him not to let opps play 3♣. In any other case I will pass - with the exception of white vs. red at matchpoints, where it is worth going for -1 doubled against 3♣ or -3 against 3NT .

[flytoox]

My first instinct is to bid 3H. But I think there is a good reason for dbl. Why? Pd passed, so he wont have a very long diamond suit. If he has one, then he must have a 4-card major suit. So the risk of pd jumping to 4/5D is really small.

SO I lean toward dbl. If pd bid 3N, I will have some problem. I guess I will bid 4H after 3N. That is overstating my hand I know. But the risk of missing a major suit game or partscore is so high that I am willing to venture it.


Cheers

Hongjun

[coyot]

Sorry, but doubling and then bidding 4♥ over 3NT shows a hand that is TOO GOOD to bid 3/4♥ directly.

If you have moderate hand with hearts, either bid them directly or shut up .

[Double !]

There is so much to this problem that I have not yet seen addressed in depth on the forum. Included, IMO Helene_t makes a compelling connection between this hand and a case for light openings.

Shift this problem back to partner of the 3♥ bidder. (i.e.: the bidding has theoretically gone p-3C-3H-p-?) How good of a hand, or what type of a hand would partner need to take a bid? Would there be any hands when P (a passed hand) could justify bidding 3NT? If P has the values to take action, does the sample hand provide the values and provide sufficient tricks to support P's action? To word the question in another way, if P has sufficient values that we can make 3♥, will we be able to stop at 3♥?

The following is both a theoretical and a partnership question, but IMO it's an important one. When you bid 3♥ over 3♣, how many values, if any, are you already playing partner for when you take action in direct seat?

For example, some ascribe to the agreement that you assume that P has about 7 to 8 pts when deciding whether or not to take action in direct seat, and that P disregard his/her first 7-8 pts when deciding whether or not to take further action. In balancing seat or re-opening position one would base action on the assumption that P has about 9-10 pts, and that P would need to disregard his/her first 9-10 pts when deciding whether or not to bid because the balancer already bid those presumed values.

I would really appreciate some feedback on the issues raised above, especially regarding basing one's action on an assumption that P has certain values and already bidding those assumed values when choosing whether or not to bid?

In addition, change this whole problem to matchpoints. Playing matchpoints, what would you all bid over 3C with the sample hand?

Thanx in advance.

DHL

[coyot]

If I recall correctly, there is a rule (meaning a hint, not a law) that says that when you bid over a preempt, you borrow 7HCP from partner. Therefore, going to 3rd level would require something like very good 13 HCP.

At matchpoints, a little more aggresivity is of course called for. With the above hand, 3♥ is a good minimum, because if if goes down one, you're most likely competing with 3♣ for 110, so -100 is OK. If it goes down for 300 or 500, chances are that opps have 3NT. (But the risk is too bid at imps).

[Fluffy]

Uh? just pass, regardless of partner being passeed hand or not, don't preempt when they have preempted themselves