[shanbari]

Scoring: IMP

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team game,

LHO partner RHO me
1D 1H 2S 4H
4S P P ?


2s is preempty.

1) do you think of 5h instead of 4h at the first round ?

2) what do you do after opps 4s now ?


thanks

SHAN

[Echognome]

I think 4♣ instead of 4♥ and let partner judge.

But then again, I think the only jump bidding that makes sense by advancer is a fit jump.

[luke warm]

according to rubens, the partner with length in their suit should make the decision.. assuming your partner has 3 spades (or 2), he already made his decision.. 4C earlier would have been nice, assuming partner is on lead.. he isn't but you couldn't know that at the time..

partner's strength appears to be in the red suits, which is good when i consider my stiff spade... i think i'd bid 5C now, even tho i'd be on lead in 5S... partner will correct to 5H, hopefully not too bad

i hate to double, especially against good opps... it pisses them off when someone doubles with a stiff

[mike777]

4c is great if partner understands it.
3s=second choice if they will not.

[whereagles]

I should have bid 4♣ 1st round. I guess I'll do it now and butt-in 5♣. This seems like a huge double-fit and feels right to bid one more for the road.

Perhaps 5♥ is even better because it doesn't leave LHO space to announce his side's double-fit in 5♦.

[luke warm]

whereagles, on Jun 2 2005, 09:06 AM, said:

Perhaps 5♥ is even better because it doesn't leave LHO space to announce his side's double-fit in 5♦.

good point

[Winstonm]

Pass has a lot going for it, but there are two things about this auction I don't like: first, partner could not double 4S so declarer could easily be 5/6 and they are in a 9-card fit and second, my stuff can't stop their stuff if the first is true.

I don't like the idea of bidding my values twice, but here I might be tempted to make an exception: I think now I will.....pass.

I wish I'd made a more descriptive bid the first time; now, it's a guess but I'm putting my faith in partner's decision.

WinstonM

[Winstonm]

Quote

It would be hard for partner to ever X after a 4H bid as you could have absolutely nothing, just 5 hearts and a stiff spade.

True, but without a descriptive bid available of 3S or 4C or even 3D and also with RHO making a weak JS, it seems logical that 4H showed some cards else LHO has a mountain.

Wrong as usual, probably, LoL.

[luke warm]

partner's pass, to me, just says he doesn't think he has the defense to beat them... since i don't think i do either, i'll bid on.. we *might* have the offense to beat them

[pclayton]

Impossible problem!

What evidence do you have of a double fit? Is pard really supposed to hit 4S with: xxx, Qxxxx, AQxx, x? Similarly, should pard bid 5H on: xxx, Qxxxx, A, Qxxx? Both are ridiculous propositions.

If you don't play fitted jumps oR even a fitted 3C make a Slight overbid of 3S. That way pard will at least have a clue you have a working 10 count rather than a shapely yarb.

[FrancesHinden]

I bid 4C last round.

If that wasn't available as a fit bid, I bid 3S last round which must definitely show a good hand with hearts.

Now I don't see what I can do that isn't a total guess.

[Fluffy]

This is an obvious example of why you have to foresee these problem and bid 4♣ next time.

But lets think you weren't able (either because agreements or because another bidding happened). Now you are in trouble, we would need to take a look at vulnerability to see if partner's pass was forcing or not.

Again no agreement?

We are left in the darkness, and all options seem bad, I would double but its just a guess.

[beatrix45]

FOUR HEARTS IS A TRANSFER TO FOUR SPADES. The way to look at your penultimate bid is to ASSUME that LHO will bid 4♠, because 9 times out of ten this seems to happen. You have ONE spade and partner has how many spades??

Ran simulation giving RHO six or more spades and LHO three or more spades. Turns out the key bid is your first one, the bid over 2♠. By far the best choice is 3♠, the correct value bid with your cards. The reason it works so well is that it tells partner that this is probably our hand so that she can double, bid or make a forcing pass at her next turn according to her hand w/o worrying about having to mastermind the overall result.

In my simulation, partner has three trumps to two honours sitting behind the opener on fully one-third of the hands. Perhaps my screen for the opponents spade suit was not tight enough, but even so, this hand comes up more often than I thought. Nvul WJSs are routinely made on ten sixth these days, and one can't really fault LHO for bidding 4♠ with 3-3-5-2 and AQx in spades in an auction that is virtually a transfer to 4♠ to begin with.

Once the auction goes 3♠ - 4♠, partner knows to double holding three spades with some honours, bid 5♥ with seven baggers, good looking 6-4's or 5-5's, and make a FORCING pass with most of the rest. Your next bid is easy. Pass 5♥ or double, and bid 5♥ after the pass.

The statistics? With my weak screen applying to the opponents spade holdings, we WIN 82 times and lose 15 times. Applying a strong screen to LHO's willingness to bid 4♠, we get to play 4♥ on about 20 hands (we lose on three hands because 4♥ goes down and E-W can make only eight tricks in spades), otherwise things are the same. In this event, we WIN 79 times and lose 18 times.

Science, reason and good bidding judgment win, as usual.

[shanbari]

thanks for all the comments regarding to 4h, and 4c is certainly better.
and congrats to people passed on the table, that would avoid a disaster later on.

Scoring: IMP

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1D 1H 2S 4H;
4S P P 5H;
6S P P X;
XX ---


6s made by CA lead. cross ruff with 10 spade tricks plus 2 D tricks.
this hand probably doesn't prove any judgement call here, however it's quite experience for me. (this is first board of the 8 board match sadlly)



SHAN

[Winstonm]

Ouch. Don't think anyone would get this one right.

[Al_U_Card]

Right bids lead to right conclusions. 3C shows your values and when (in this case) LHO bids 4C you know that there are D and H in his hand. Over RHO 4S bid, 5H clears up the picture for pard. LHO will bid 5S and it will likely play there. Despite the C bid, pard will see the D situation and start a trump to reduce the cross ruffs.

[beatrix45]

shanbari, on Jun 3 2005, 09:04 AM, said:

thanks for all the comments regarding to 4h, and 4c is certainly better.  6s made by CA lead. cross ruff with 10 spade tricks plus 2 D tricks  This hand probably doesn't prove any judgement call here, however it's quite experience for me.  (this is first board of the 8 board match sadly)

Geez. My modified posting has some simulation results you might find useful, but I didn't include a possibility of partner's 4 bagger overcall. Turns out this is a significant case, occuring on 18% of the hands. The following analysis fixes that.

If we pick up the play after you bid 3♠ over RHO's 2♠ bid and consider only those cases where a conservative LHO chooses to bid 4♠, then overall, the recommended bidding wins 83 times out of 100 and loses 17 times. The recommended bidding is for partner to double with three trumps and at least one trick, bid with 7 baggers or nice 6-4's or 5-5's and pass otherwise. After a pass, you bid 5♥.

On the actual hand, 'recommended bidding' isn't much help. You would probably end up in 5♠ doubled. Oh well, -750 is better than -1090.