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To bid or not to bid part 2

Poll: To bid or not to bid part 2 (46 member(s) have cast votes)

What is your bid

  1. Pass (12 votes [26.09%])

    Percentage of vote: 26.09%

  2. Double (3 votes [6.52%])

    Percentage of vote: 6.52%

  3. 2H (31 votes [67.39%])

    Percentage of vote: 67.39%

  4. 2S (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  5. Other (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

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#21 User is offline   Huibertus 

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Posted 2020-July-05, 05:19

View PostCyberyeti, on 2020-July-04, 11:43, said:

Mike H and I pretty much know there is no 4 game on due to what we open on in first seat. I absolutely agree with his assessment.


In order to almost be certain it is not reasonable 4 vulnerable, you need an opening bid for west on a hand like this;

7 5 3, Q J 7 5, A 9 7 5 3, 8

Do you? That would be pretty effective here indeed.
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#22 User is online   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2020-July-05, 05:44

View PostHuibertus, on 2020-July-05, 05:19, said:

In order to almost be certain it is not reasonable 4 vulnerable, you need an opening bid for west on a hand like this;

7 5 3, Q J 7 5, A 9 7 5 3, 8

Do you? That would be pretty effective here indeed.


We opened that 2 although Mike H didn't (don't ask). You also probably aren't oubidding or beating 4 if they're 3-1 or making 4 on a trump lead unless diamonds are 3-3.
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#23 User is offline   sfi 

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Posted 2020-July-05, 06:38

View Postnekthen, on 2020-July-04, 10:07, said:

Do you think partner should stick his neck out with an SOS xx?

I would have overcalled 2H. I would redouble for sos now. I would not be confident about either action, but experience suggests when they pass this double, with a game bonus on the line, they are usually right.
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#24 User is online   nige1 

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Posted 2020-July-05, 06:41


Nethken "This went for 800.
Do you think partner should stick his neck out with an SOS xx?"
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Bidding problem reposted to BridgeWinners
https://bridgewinner...m-2-a5xvjhlai6/

MikeH and CyberYeti sussed it out :) Hard luck Nethken :( With different views declarer might escape for -500. But that wouldn't be much consolation :(

IMO East shouldn't SOS-redouble with his actual hand. With a void, he might consider it, especially at pairs.

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#25 User is offline   mikeh 

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Posted 2020-July-05, 08:23

View PostHuibertus, on 2020-July-05, 05:19, said:

In order to almost be certain it is not reasonable 4 vulnerable, you need an opening bid for west on a hand like this;

7 5 3, Q J 7 5, A 9 7 5 3, 8

Do you? That would be pretty effective here indeed.

Anyone can make up hands to fit what they want to do. Bridge is a game of probabilities, and the odds are that partner does NOT have a magic layout.

I am not a fan of double dummy simulations in most situations. We don’t (at least I don’t) play double dummy but even more importantly such simulations are heavily dependent upon the constraints. However, this sort of situation likely does lend itself to a simulation.

You’d have to design the constraints to exclude hands where partner would have bid, and for what rho considers a 1S opening.

You’d also need to look at each hand and decide how the auction would go were you to overcall, and that’s very difficult to do once one knows the cards: there is a tendency to let one’s prior beliefs influence one’s views.

However, such an approach is infinitely better than sitting down and coming up wupith hands that make one’s preferred bidding work well,
'one of the great markers of the advance of human kindness is the howls you will hear from the Men of God' Johann Hari
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#26 User is online   bluenikki 

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Posted 2020-July-05, 11:17

View Postmikeh, on 2020-July-05, 08:23, said:

Anyone can make up hands to fit what they want to do. Bridge is a game of probabilities, and the odds are that partner does NOT have a magic layout.

I am not a fan of double dummy simulations in most situations. We don’t (at least I don’t) play double dummy but even more importantly such simulations are heavily dependent upon the constraints. However, this sort of situation likely does lend itself to a simulation.

You’d have to design the constraints to exclude hands where partner would have bid, and for what rho considers a 1S opening.

You’d also need to look at each hand and decide how the auction would go were you to overcall, and that’s very difficult to do once one knows the cards: there is a tendency to let one’s prior beliefs influence one’s views.

However, such an approach is infinitely better than sitting down and coming up wupith hands that make one’s preferred bidding work well,


You did not say you probably don't have a game.

You said you were "very unlikely" to have a game.

Yes a 7-hcp must be carefully constructed. That does not mean a 10-hcp must. On the contrary.
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#27 User is offline   PhilG007 

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Posted 2020-July-05, 12:43

View Postbluenikki, on 2020-July-04, 16:38, said:

Are you suggesting that further developments might bring you in at the THREE level?


I'm suggesting caution. I 'm suggesting not putting your head on the block and maybe
suffering a whacking penalty.. "Fools rush in........"
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#28 User is online   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2020-July-05, 12:57

View Postbluenikki, on 2020-July-05, 11:17, said:

You did not say you probably don't have a game.

You said you were "very unlikely" to have a game.

Yes a 7-hcp must be carefully constructed. That does not mean a 10-hcp must. On the contrary.


I don't know about Mike but a 10 count 5431 with no points in the 1 we open, also in 1st seat we open an awful lot of hands at the 2 level, indeed at other vuls we would open the actual hand in this post.
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#29 User is offline   mikeh 

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Posted 2020-July-06, 15:20

View PostCyberyeti, on 2020-July-05, 12:57, said:

I don't know about Mike but a 10 count 5431 with no points in the 1 we open, also in 1st seat we open an awful lot of hands at the 2 level, indeed at other vuls we would open the actual hand in this post.

We don’t open balanced 10 counts. We will sometimes open distributional 10 counts, but vulnerability, location of the hcp, and so on, all play a role.

As for the comment that implies that we will frequently have games opposite random 10 counts, that made me laugh out loud when I read it. Can we have a game opposite some less-than likely 10 counts, with which we would not have opened? Of course, but bidding on the assumption that this is sufficiently likely to offset the risks reflects the sort of ‘reasoning’ that makes lotteries so successful, for those selling the tickets.
'one of the great markers of the advance of human kindness is the howls you will hear from the Men of God' Johann Hari
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